Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

The decay rate of orthopositronium

We review recent measurements of the orthopositronium decay rate, λT, and present results of a new 230‐ppm measurement using the vacuum technique. It corroborates, at the 6.2 sigma level, the discrepancy between theory and a recent 200‐ppm measurement of λT in gases.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87568/2/481_1.pd

A viable superluminal hypothesis: Tachyon emission from orthopositronium

Tachyons are hypothetical particles that travel faster than the vacuum speed of light. Previous experiments have searched for, but have not found evidence of tachyons. Long-standing, anomalous measurements of the orthopositronium (o-Ps) decay rate are interpreted as evidence for two tachyons being occasionally emitted when o-Ps decays. Restricting the coupling of tachyon pairs to a single photon (no tachyon coupling to matter) yields a new theory where tachyons are only observed in o-Ps decay and not in the previous tachyon experiments. Combining the single photon coupling theory with all previous experiments predicts that these tachyons must deposit energy while traversing scintillator detectors. A new tachyon search experiment will use this energy loss prediction to attempt to find tachyons passing through the apparatus or set limits disproving the original o-Ps to tachyon hypothesis. Viewing an intense o-Ps source, a time-of-flight spectrometer uses the superluminal property of tachyons for identification. Several months of continuous data acquisition will be necessary to completely eliminate the o-Ps to tachyon hypothesis. © 2000 American Institute of Physics.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87640/2/1119_1.pd

The Promise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit the private sector and government alike.Technology and Industry

MASSART-PIÉRARD, Françoise. La langue : Vecteur d'organisation internationale. Louvain-la-Neuve, Éditions d'Acadie, 1995, 194 v.

Gait and balance training is an essential ingredient for locomotor rehabilitation of patients with neurological impairments. Robotic overhead support systems may help these patients train, for example by relieving them of part of their body weight. However, there are only very few systems that provide support during overground gait, and these suffer from limited degrees of freedom and/or undesired interaction forces due to uncompensated robot dynamics, namely inertia. Here, we suggest a novel mechanical concept that is based on cable robot technology and that allows three-dimensional gait training while reducing apparent robot dynamics to a minimum. The solution does not suffer from the conventional drawback of cable robots, which is a limited workspace. Instead, displaceable deflection units follow the human subject above a large walking area. These deflection units are not actuated, instead they are implicitly displaced by means of the forces in the cables they deflect. This leads to an underactuated design, because the deflection units cannot be moved arbitrarily. However, the design still allows accurate control of a three-dimensional force vector acting on a human subject during gait. We describe the mechanical concept, the control concept, and we show first experimental results obtained with the device, including the force control performance during robot-supported overground gait of five human subjects without motor impairments

A tunable zinc finger-based framework for Boolean logic computation in mammalian cells

The ability to perform molecular-level computation in mammalian cells has the potential to enable a new wave of sophisticated cell-based therapies and diagnostics. To this end, we developed a Boolean logic framework utilizing artificial Cys2–His2 zinc finger transcription factors (ZF-TFs) as computing elements. Artificial ZFs can be designed to specifically bind different DNA sequences and thus comprise a diverse set of components ideal for the construction of scalable networks. We generate ZF-TF activators and repressors and demonstrate a novel, general method to tune ZF-TF response by fusing ZF-TFs to leucine zipper homodimerization domains. We describe 15 transcriptional activators that display 2- to 463-fold induction and 15 transcriptional repressors that show 1.3- to 16-fold repression. Using these ZF-TFs, we compute OR, NOR, AND and NAND logic, employing hybrid promoters and split intein-mediated protein splicing to integrate signals. The split intein strategy is able to fully reconstitute the ZF-TFs, maintaining them as a uniform set of computing elements. Together, these components comprise a robust platform for building mammalian synthetic gene circuits capable of precisely modulating cellular behavior

Investigations of electron helicity in optically active molecules using polarized beams of electrons and positrons

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43345/1/11084_2004_Article_BF00927996.pd

Corruption in Developing Countries

Recent years have seen a remarkable expansion in economists' ability to measure corruption. This in turn has led to a new generation of well-identified, microeconomic studies. We review the evidence on corruption in developing countries in light of these recent advances, focusing on three questions: how much corruption is there, what are the efficiency consequences of corruption, and what determines the level of corruption? We find robust evidence that corruption responds to standard economic incentive theory but also that the effects of anticorruption policies often attenuate as officials find alternate strategies to pursue rents.Hewlett-Packard CompanyGreat Britain. Dept. for International DevelopmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (Governance Initiative

Spin-polarized low-energy positron beams and their applications

The production and use of low-energy (100 eV to 5 keV) high-intensity, spin-polarized positron beams is reviewed. Methods for obtaining beams with high polarization are discussed. Applications include studies of the moderation process, surface and bulk magnetism, optically active molecules, and the production of polarized anti-protons.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47033/1/339_2004_Article_BF00635183.pd

Beta decay and the origin of biological chirality: New experimental results

The proposed connection between the parity-violating handedness of beta particles in radioactive decay and the sign (L) of biological chirality (the Vester-Ulbricht [V-U] hypothesis) is being investigated by measuring the theoretically predicted asymmetry in the formation of triplet positronium in amino acid enantiomers by low energy positrons under reversal of the helicity of the positrons. We find the asymmetry in leucine to be (0.8±1.0)×10 −4 , i.e. consistent with the theoretical, prediction of 10 −6 to 10 −7 . The apparatus is now sensitive enough to test the predicted asymmetry in optically active molecules which have heavy atoms at their chiral centers. The connection between these results and asymmetry in radiolysis by beta-decay electrons is made, and the implications of our limits for the V-U hypothesis discussed. Although the above limits are 10 6 times lower than direct measurements of radiolysis, they are still not small enough to allow us to rule out the V-U hypothesis.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43347/1/11084_2004_Article_BF00933685.pd