Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions

Infrared vibrational spectroscopy: a rapid and novel diagnostic and monitoring tool for cystinuria

Cystinuria is the commonest inherited cause of nephrolithiasis (~1% in adults; ~6% in children) and is the result of impaired cystine reabsorption in the renal proximal tubule. Cystine is poorly soluble in urine with a solubility of ~1 mM and can readily form microcrystals that lead to cystine stone formation, especially at low urine pH. Diagnosis of cystinuria is made typically by ion-exchange chromatography (IEC) detection and quantitation, which is slow, laboursome and costly. More rapid and frequent monitoring of urinary cystine concentration would significantly improve the diagnosis and clinical management of cystinuria. We used attenuated total reflection - Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) to detect and quantitate insoluble cystine in 22 cystinuric and 5 healthy control urine samples. Creatinine concentration was also determined by ATR-FTIR to adjust for urinary concentration/dilution. Urine was centrifuged, the insoluble fraction re-suspended in 5 μL water and dried on the ATR prism. Cystine was quantitated using its 1296 cm−1 absorption band and levels matched with parallel measurements made using IEC. ATR-FTIR afforded a rapid and inexpensive method of detecting and quantitating insoluble urinary cystine. This proof-of-concept study provides a basis for developing a high-throughput, cost-effective diagnostic method for cystinuria, and for point-of-care clinical monitoring

Meeting of the Ecosystem Approach Correspondence Group on on Pollution Monitoring (CorMon Pollution)

In accordance with the UNEP/MAP Programme of Work adopted by COP 21 for the biennium 2020-2021, the United Nations Environment Programme/Mediterranean Action Plan-Barcelona Convention Secretariat (UNEP/MAP) and its Programme for the Assessment and Control of Marine Pollution in the Mediterranean (MED POL) organized the Meeting of the Ecosystem Approach Correspondence Group on Pollution Monitoring (CorMon on Pollution Monitoring). The Meeting was held via videoconference on 26-27 April 2021. 2. The main objectives of the Meeting were to: a) Review the Monitoring Guidelines/Protocols for IMAP Common Indicator 18, as well as the Monitoring Guidelines/Protocols for Analytical Quality Assurance and Reporting of Monitoring Data for IMAP Common Indicators 13, 14, 17, 18 and 20; b) Take stock of the state of play of inter-laboratory testing and good laboratory practice related to IMAP Ecological Objectives 5 and 9; c) Analyze the proposal for the integration and aggregation rules for IMAP Ecological Objectives 5, 9 and 10 and assessment criteria for contaminants and nutrients; d) Recommend the ways and means to strengthen implementation of IMAP Pollution Cluster towards preparation of the 2023 MED Quality Status Report

Lbase: A Logical Database Management System

Logic offers a uniform environment both for data description and program execution and provides a powerful programming language with the use of "headed" queries. Relational data model proved to be the best model of the "conventional" database theory This paper describes the advantages of connecting a relational database management system (RDBMS) with logic programming, building a logical DBMS (LDBMS) that extends the power of the relational data model. Relations are described both by facts (assertions) and rules (deductions), so data become more meaningful, and complex queries can be answered. Memory organisation also provides space saving and efficient indexing using b-trees instead of sequential searching. 2. Introduction Even though relational data model has boosted database theory [1], some problems and limitations arise from the fact that relational databases are flat and therefore full exploitation of the relational model capabilities requires programming skills from the user. Q..

Climate change effects on drought severity

This paper evaluates climate change effects on drought severity in the region of Thessaly, Greece. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used for estimation of drought severity. A geographical information system is applied for the division of Thessaly region to twelve hydrological homogeneous areas based on their geomorphology. Mean monthly precipitation values from 50 precipitation stations of Thessaly for the hydrological period October 1960-September 1990 were used for the estimation of mean areal precipitation. These precipitation timeseries have been used for the estimation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for multiple time scales (1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-months) for each sub-basin or area. The outputs of Global Circulation Model CGCM2 were applied for two socioeconomic scenarios, namely, SRES A2 and SRES B2 for the assessment of climate change impact on droughts. The GCM outputs were downscaled to the region of Thessaly using a statistical methodology to estimate precipitation time series for two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100. A method has been proposed for the estimation of annual cumulative drought severity-time scale-frequency curves. These curves integrate the drought severity and frequency for various types of drought. The SPI timeseries and annual weighted cumulative drought severity were estimated and compared with the respective timeseries and values of the historical period 1960-1990. The results showed that the annual drought severity is increased for all hydrological areas and SPI time scales, with the socioeconomic scenario SRES A2 being the most extreme

A hybrid downscaling approach for the estimation of climate change effects on droughts using a geo-information tool. Case study: Thessaly, Central Greece

Multiple linear regression is used to downscale large-scale outputs from CGCM2 (second generation CGCM of Canadian centre for climate monitoring and analysis) and ECHAM5 (developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), statistically to regional precipitation over the Thessaly region, Greece. Mean monthly precipitation data for the historical period Oct.1960-Sep.2002 derived from 79 rain gauges were spatially interpolated using a geostatistical approach over the region of Thessaly, which was divided into 128 grid cells of 10 km × 10 km. The methodology is based on multiple regression of large scale GCM predictant variables with observed precipitation and the application of a stochastic time series model for precipitation residuals simulation (white noise). The methodology was developed for historical period (Oct.1960-Sep.1990) and validated against observed monthly precipitation for period (Oct.1990-Sep.2002). The downscaled proposed methodology was used to calculate the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at various timescales (3-month, 6-month, 9-month, 12-month, 24-month) in order to estimate climate change effects on droughts. Various evaluation statistics were calculated in order to validate the process and the results showed that the method is efficient in SPI reproduction but the level of uncertainty is quite high due to its stochastic component. © 2016 J. Tzabiras et al

Evaluation of Water Resources Management Strategies to Overturn Climate Change Impacts on Lake Karla Watershed

The effects of climate change on meteorology, hydrology and ecology have become a priority area for research and for water management. It is crucial to identify, simulate, evaluate and, finally, adopt water resources management strategies to overturn the impacts of climate change. This paper is dealing with the assessment of climate change impacts on the availability of water resources and the water demands and the evaluation of water resources management strategies in the Lake Karla watershed, central Greece and it is a contribution to the “HYDROMENTOR” research project. The outputs of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling Analysis Global Circulation Model CGCM3 were downscaled using a statistical hybrid method to estimate monthly precipitation and temperature time series for present and future climate periods. The analysis was conducted for two future periods 2030–2050 and 2080–2100 and three SRES scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). The surface water and groundwater have been simulated for present and future climate periods using a modelling system, which includes coupled hydrologic models. Two operational strategies of hydro-technical project development are coupled with three water demand strategies. Overall, eight water management strategies are evaluated for present climate conditions and twenty four water management strategies for future climate conditions have been evaluated. The results show that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of Lake Karla watershed is large and it is expected to become critical in the future, even though the impact of climate change on the meteorological parameters is very moderate. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

Estimation of crop water requirements using remote sensing for operational water resources management

An integrated modeling system, developed in the framework of "Hydromentor" research project, is applied to evaluate crop water requirements for operational water resources management at Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The framework includes coupled components for operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and estimation of agricultural water demands at several spatial scales using remote sensing. The study area was sub-divided into irrigation zones based on land use maps derived from Landsat 5 TM images for the year 2007. Satellite-based energy balance for mapping evapotranspiration with internalized calibration (METRIC) was used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) and crop coefficient (ETrF) values from Landsat TM imagery. Agricultural water needs were estimated using the FAO method for each zone and each control node of the system for a number of water resources management strategies. Two operational strategies of hydro-technical project development (present situation without operation of the reservoir and future situation with the operation of the reservoir) are coupled with three water demand strategies. In total, eight (8) water management strategies are evaluated and compared. The results show that, under the existing operational water resources management strategies, the crop water requirements are quite large. However, the operation of the proposed hydro-technical projects in Lake Karla watershed coupled with water demand management measures, like improvement of existing water distribution systems, change of irrigation methods, and changes of crop cultivation could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area. © 2015 Copyright SPIE