Essays on transition challenges for alternative propulsion vehicles and transportation systems

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2006.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Includes bibliographical references.Technology transitions require the formation of a self-sustaining market through alignment of consumers' interests, producers' capabilities, infrastructure development, and regulations. In this research I develop a broad behavioral dynamic model of the prospective transition to alternative fuel vehicles. In Essay one I focus on the premise that automobile purchase decisions are strongly shaped by cultural norms, personal experience, and social interactions. To capture these factors, I examine important social processes conditioning alternative vehicle diffusion, including the generation of consumer awareness through feedback from driving experience, word of mouth and marketing. Through analysis of a simulation model I demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for the sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on behavioral, economic and physical system parameters. Word-of-mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Further, I show that marketing and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.(cont.) Results are supported with an analysis of the transition to the horseless carriage at the turn of the 19th century. In the second Essay I explore the co-evolutionary interdependence between alternative fuel vehicle demand and the requisite refueling infrastructure. The analysis is based on a dynamic behavioral model with an explicit spatial structure. I find, first, a bi-stable, low demand equilibrium with urban adoption clusters. Further, the diffusion of more fuel efficient vehicles, optimal for the long run, is less likely to succeed, illustrating the existence of trade-offs between the goals of the early stage transition, and those of the long-run equilibrium. Several other feedbacks that significantly influence dynamics including, supply and demand, and supply-coordination behaviors, are discussed. In Essay three I examine how technology learning and spillovers impact technology trajectories of competing incumbents - hybrid and radical entrants. I develop a technology lifecycle model, with an emphasis on technology heterogeneity. In the model, spillovers can flow to the market leader and can be asymmetric across technologies. find that the existence of learning and spillover dynamics greatly increases path dependence. Interaction effects with other feedbacks, such as scale economies, are very strong. Further, superior radical technologies may fail, even when introduced simultaneously with inferior hybrid technologies.(cont.) I find that the existence of learning and spillover dynamics greatly increases path dependence. Interaction effects with other feedbacks, such as scale economies, are very strong. Further, superior radical technologies may fail, even when introduced simultaneously with inferior hybrid technologies.by Jeroen J.R. Struben.Ph.D

Policy insights and modelling challenges: The case of passenger car powertrain technology transition in the European Union

Purpose: We are interested in what policy insights can be transferred from EU countries that have been most successful in introducing EVs to those that are debating policy options. As we use a model to explore this, we are also interested in the application of modelling, seeking to understand if real world policies and results can be replicated in a model and, more generally, the challenges to the use of modelling in policy appraisal. Methods: We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We perform iterative scenario tests to replicate the policies carried out in the Netherlands and the UK in recent years in an attempt to achieve similar results in EV sales. We then transfer the policy scenarios to other EU member states and assess the transferability of the policies. Results: Reasonable approximations of the Netherlands and UK EV policies and sales were achieved and implemented in other EU member states. Conclusion: We find that the PTTMAM is fit-for-purpose and can replicate successful policies to a certain degree. Policy success is sensitive to country specific conditions, and a system dynamics model like the PTTMAM can help identify which conditions react to which policy stimulus. There are challenges to modelling in policy appraisal, such as the subjectivity of the modeller and flexibility to specific conditions, which must be kept transparent for the model to be a relevant tool for policy making

Patients want to be seen: The top 3 information needs of patients with inguinal hernia.

Background Good patient information has shown to improve surgical outcomes. In this study we explore what kind of pre-surgical information patients need and if the provision of a 360˚ video of a surgical procedure can be of added value to the information provided by the hospital. Methods An explorative qualitative study using semi-structured interviews on information needs was conducted among 17 inguinal hernia patients to gain more insight in the patients’ present surgical information needs. Patients either were planned to receive or already had received a surgical procedure. Questions were asked about the current informatio

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

Purpose: In this study, we consider the European electro-mobility market from an industrial perspective, and focus on effects of market conditions and manufacturer strategies, with the objective to gain insight on what could inhibit the successful market penetration of electric powertrain vehicles. Methods: We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We assess strategies employed by automobile manufacturers towards the development and market penetration of electric vehicles. Results: Impacts on electric powertrain sales shares (up to 2050) related to industrial strategies, represented by learning effect, marketing effort and R&D funding, are presented under different scenarios related to policy, regulation and market conditions. Conclusion: It is concluded from the results presented here that competition between electrical powertrain options may be more inhibitive than competition against conventional counterparts, with both monetary and non-monetary industry support for immature powertrains key to their long-term success when supportive policies are designed to be technology neutral

EAACI position paper on occupational rhinitis

The present document is the result of a consensus reached by a panel of experts from European and non-European countries on Occupational Rhinitis (OR), a disease of emerging relevance which has received little attention in comparison to occupational asthma. The document covers the main items of OR including epidemiology, diagnosis, management, socio-economic impact, preventive strategies and medicolegal issues. An operational definition and classification of OR tailored on that of occupational asthma, as well as a diagnostic algorithm based on steps allowing for different levels of diagnostic evidence are proposed. The needs for future research are pointed out. Key messages are issued for each item