QSAR with experimental and predictive distributions: an information theoretic approach for assessing model quality

We propose that quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) predictions should be explicitly represented as predictive (probability) distributions. If both predictions and experimental measurements are treated as probability distributions, the quality of a set of predictive distributions output by a model can be assessed with Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence: a widely used information theoretic measure of the distance between two probability distributions. We have assessed a range of different machine learning algorithms and error estimation methods for producing predictive distributions with an analysis against three of AstraZeneca's global DMPK datasets. Using the KL-divergence framework, we have identified a few combinations of algorithms that produce accurate and valid compound-specific predictive distributions. These methods use reliability indices to assign predictive distributions to the predictions output by QSAR models so that reliable predictions have tight distributions and vice versa. Finally we show how valid predictive distributions can be used to estimate the probability that a test compound has properties that hit single- or multi- objective target profile

Quantum chemical characterization of low-lying excited states of an Aryl peroxycarbonate: Mechanistic implications for photodissociation

Recent experiments have revealed the existence of an excited state dissociative mechanism for certain peroxycarbonates, with the demonstration that the lifetime of the excited state matches the picosecond time scale for appearance of nascent carbon dioxide product. The data infer that the photoreaction proceeds via an effectively concerted three-body dissociation within the lifetime of the singlet excited state. Many other arylperoxides decay sequentially via [(aryloxy)carbonyl]oxy radical intermediates on nanosecond-microsecond time scales. Uncertainty as to the lifetime of the excited state relates to the character and the relative energetic ordering of states of the parent molecule, since the spectra and photochemistry imply that low-lying states may exist on each of the aryl, carbonate, and peroxide chemical functionalities. We employ many-body electronic structure calculations to determine the energies and characters of the low-lying valence states of a minimal aryl peroxycarbonate model germane to the above-mentioned experiments, methyl phenyl peroxycarbonate (MPC). Our results indicate that the lowest-lying state is an intrinsically nondissociative aryl pi pi* excited state. We identify additional low-lying states that are expected to be dissociative in nature and propose that the time scales observed for the dissociation reaction may correspond to the little scale for transfer of excited state population to these states