The outlook for the U.S. banking industry : what does the experience of the 1980s and 1990s tell us?

In many respects, the 1980s appear to be the worst decade in banking since the Great Depression, while the 1990s could be rated as the best. Over 1,100 commercial banks failed or needed FDIC assistance during the 1980s, and significant parts of the thrift industry became insolvent and had to be resolved, costing taxpayers $125 billion. In contrast, the banking industry began a dramatic recovery in the first half of 1990s and has recently achieved record profitability, extremely low levels of loan losses, and the highest capital ratios since the early 1940s. As a result, the number of banks failing during the second half of the 1990s has averaged only four or five per year.> These two divergent experiences raise the question of what will happen during the next decade. One obvious forecast would be for recent favorable trends to continue, particularly since banks and the underlying economy have shown remarkable strength and resiliency in their recovery from the 1980s. The current environment is not without some concerns, however. Consumer debt has reached record levels, and a few sectors, such as agriculture, show signs of weakness. Also, bank supervisors have recently voiced concerns that bank credit standards are weakening. Moreover, the financial environment is changing rapidly with innovation, bank expansion and consolidation, and competition from new sources, thus opening the door for new problems.> Spong and Sullivan examine the outlook for the banking industry over the next few years, focusing on whether the prosperity and tranquility of the 1990s will continue, or whether the industry faces a return of the banking problems of the 1980s. They find that, because banks are in much better shape now than in the 1980s, the industry is unlikely to face the depth of problems suffered in the 1980s even if the economic environment becomes less favorable. Still, it appears that banks will be hard pressed to match their recent record performance.Banks and banking

Successful strategies in interstate bank acquisitions

Much of the recent consolidation in the banking industry has been across state lines, and this trend will accelerate due to recent federal legislation. As interstate banking expands further, the performance and success of banks that are acquired will be the key factor determining how much consolidation will occur and which organizations will be major participants. This article therefore examines a group of banks that were acquired on an interstate basis in 1986 and 1987, and tracks their performance after acquisition. It identifies strategies and characteristics that distinguish acquisitions with strong performance from those with weak performance. While strong and weak performing acquisitions were similar in many ways at the time they were acquired, strong performers expanded on an already significant presence in loan markets and avoided a deterioration in asset quality. Strong performers grew moderately overall, and improved net interest margins. Compared to weak performing acquisitions, strong performers were better at controlling expenses, and they widened this advantage after acquisition. Overall, the strong performers achieved success by applying sound banking techniques in a challenging new market, where previous experience and detailed insights into customers and competitors were limited.Interstate banking

How does ownership structure and manager wealth influence risk? : a look at ownership structure, manager wealth, and risk in commercial banks

Bank managers, stockholders, and directors must work closely together in deciding what risks their bank will assume and how to control the bank's overall risk exposure. Each decision-maker will have to understand the risk preferences of others in order to make mutually acceptable decisions and develop policies that reflect all of their concerns. To the extent that weak risk control is tied to management and ownership structure, bank examiners must also understand the basic components of a sound management and ownership structure if the examiner is to suggest corrective steps for a problem institution. ; This study looks at a sample of Tenth Federal Reserve District banks to investigate the relationship between bank risk, ownership of the bank by managers, and the degree to which managers and owners have their wealth concentrated in their bank stockholdings. Data for 270 randomly selected banks reveal that ownership and wealth diversification of bank owners and managers do influence bank risk. These effects extend not only to the overall risk of the bank, but are also reflected uniquely in asset quality measures, bank leverage, and other parts of a bank's risk exposure. ; Major findings highlight connections between bank risk, ownership structure, and manager wealth. Banks are less risky when bank managers have a higher concentration of wealth in their bank and, thus, have more to lose from taking on additional risk. Possibly seeking to avoid large loan losses that could threaten their employment, hired managers typically operate their banks with lower credit risk than banks with owner managers. Using capital as a buffer against risk, owner-manager banks tend to have higher capitalization than banks with hired managers. Stock ownership by hired managers provides incentives to operate their bank more in line with the risk preferences of owners. Finally, a hired-manager bank will be less risky when a major owner monitoring the bank has much of his or her wealth concentrated in the bank's stock. ; Thus, ownership structure and concentration of wealth in bank equity have a significant influence on bank risk. Understanding how risk preferences depend on ownership and wealth diversification can be valuable information to managers and owners as they grapple with the level and type of risk to take in their banks.Risk ; Banking structure ; Federal Reserve District, 10th

Who's minding the store? motivating and monitoring hired managers at small, closely held firms: the case of commercial banks

We test whether the gains from hiring an outside manager exceed the principal-agent costs of owner-manager separation at 266 small, closely held U.S. commercial banks. Our results suggest that hiring an outside manager can improve a bank's profit efficiency, but that these gains depend on aligning the hired managers with owners via managerial shareholdings. We find that over-utilizing this control mechanism results in entrenchment, while under-utilization is costly in terms of foregone profits. This study provides a relatively unfettered test of mitigating principal-agent costs, because these small banks cannot rely on market forces or blocks of outside investors to monitor managers.Small business ; Banks and banking - Costs ; Bank management

What makes a bank efficient? : a look at financial characteristics and management and ownership structure

Increased competition, new technology, and bank consolidation are reinforcing the need for banks to operate efficiently. Moreover, recent research on banking efficiency shows that there is much room for reducing expenses and making better use of bank resources. This article compares the financial characteristics, as well as the management and ownership structure, of a sample of efficient and inefficient banks from the Tenth Federal Reserve District. The comparison reveals a number of factors that contribute to bank efficiency. ; Efficient banks control all aspects of costs, yet deliver bank services that are often more resource intensive than the services provided by less efficient banks. Stockholders at efficient banks are actively involved, play a major policymaking role, or make other contributions through the board of directors. A bank is more likely to be efficient if its manager either has a strong financial stake in the bank, or is closely monitored by stockholders and given appropriate incentives. The data further suggest that efficient banks are not achieving their efficiency by expending fewer resources on credit analysis and other forms of risk control. In sum, efficient bank operations can be obtained under a variety of circumstances, but two essential keys to success are properly motivated managers and active participation by bank owners.Banking structure ; Bank management

Rotation and Neoclassical Ripple Transport in ITER

Neoclassical transport in the presence of non-axisymmetric magnetic fields causes a toroidal torque known as neoclassical toroidal viscosity (NTV). The toroidal symmetry of ITER will be broken by the finite number of toroidal field coils and by test blanket modules (TBMs). The addition of ferritic inserts (FIs) will decrease the magnitude of the toroidal field ripple. 3D magnetic equilibria with toroidal field ripple and ferromagnetic structures are calculated for an ITER steady-state scenario using the Variational Moments Equilibrium Code (VMEC). Neoclassical transport quantities in the presence of these error fields are calculated using the Stellarator Fokker-Planck Iterative Neoclassical Conservative Solver (SFINCS). These calculations fully account for $E_r$, flux surface shaping, multiple species, magnitude of ripple, and collisionality rather than applying approximate analytic NTV formulae. As NTV is a complicated nonlinear function of $E_r$, we study its behavior over a plausible range of $E_r$. We estimate the toroidal flow, and hence $E_r$, using a semi-analytic turbulent intrinsic rotation model and NUBEAM calculations of neutral beam torque. The NTV from the $\rvert n \rvert = 18$ ripple dominates that from lower $n$ perturbations of the TBMs. With the inclusion of FIs, the magnitude of NTV torque is reduced by about 75% near the edge. We present comparisons of several models of tangential magnetic drifts, finding appreciable differences only for superbanana-plateau transport at small $E_r$. We find the scaling of calculated NTV torque with ripple magnitude to indicate that ripple-trapping may be a significant mechanism for NTV in ITER. The computed NTV torque without ferritic components is comparable in magnitude to the NBI and intrinsic turbulent torques and will likely damp rotation, but the NTV torque is significantly reduced by the planned ferritic inserts

Small Business Lending and Social Capital: Are Rural Relationships Different?

We test whether rural versus urban location, and the amount of social capital present in those locations, influence the performance of Small Business Administration (SBA) 7(a) loans originated between 1984 and 2012. On average, we find that rural loans are about 11% less likely to default than urban loans, and that a standard deviation increase in social capital reduces default by about 5%. Surprisingly, these two effects are largely independent of each other, even though social capital is substantially higher in rural places than in urban places. Our findings advance the small business lending literature and offer insights for a more efficient allocation of SBA funds

Challenging Biblical Fundamentalism by Seeking the Influence of the Synagogue in the Formation of the Synoptic Gospels

ABSTRAC