Assessment of Skill and Portability in Regional Marine Biogeochemical Models: Role of Multiple Planktonic Groups

Application of biogeochemical models to the study of marine ecosystems is pervasive, yet objective quantification of these models\u27 performance is rare. Here, 12 lower trophic level models of varying complexity are objectively assessed in two distinct regions (equatorial Pacific and Arabian Sea). Each model was run within an identical one-dimensional physical framework. A consistent variational adjoint implementation assimilating chlorophyll-a, nitrate, export, and primary productivity was applied and the same metrics were used to assess model skill. Experiments were performed in which data were assimilated from each site individually and from both sites simultaneously. A cross-validation experiment was also conducted whereby data were assimilated from one site and the resulting optimal parameters were used to generate a simulation for the second site. When a single pelagic regime is considered, the simplest models fit the data as well as those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups. However, those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups produced lower misfits when the models are required to simulate both regimes using identical parameter values. The cross-validation experiments revealed that as long as only a few key biogeochemical parameters were optimized, the models with greater phytoplankton complexity were generally more portable. Furthermore, models with multiple zooplankton compartments did not necessarily outperform models with single zooplankton compartments, even when zooplankton biomass data are assimilated. Finally, even when different models produced similar least squares model-data misfits, they often did so via very different element flow pathways, highlighting the need for more comprehensive data sets that uniquely constrain these pathways

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Efficient CO2 fixation by surface Prochlorococcus in the Atlantic Ocean

Nearly half of the Earth’s surface is covered by the ocean populated by the most abundant photosynthetic organisms on the planet—Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. However, in the oligotrophic open ocean, the majority of their cells in the top half of the photic layer have levels of photosynthetic pigmentation barely detectable by flow cytometry, suggesting low efficiency of CO2 fixation compared with other phytoplankton living in the same waters. To test the latter assumption, CO2 fixation rates of flow cytometrically sorted 14C-labelled phytoplankton cells were directly compared in surface waters of the open Atlantic Ocean (30°S to 30°N). CO2 fixation rates of Prochlorococcus are at least 1.5–2.0 times higher than CO2 fixation rates of the smallest plastidic protists and Synechococcus cyanobacteria when normalised to photosynthetic pigmentation assessed using cellular red autofluorescence. Therefore, our data indicate that in oligotrophic oceanic surface waters, pigment minimisation allows Prochlorococcus cells to harvest plentiful sunlight more effectively than other phytoplankton

A multicentre randomised, 1-year comparative effectiveness, parallel-group trial protocol of a physical therapy approach compared to corticosteroid injections

Corticosteroid injections (CSIs) are commonly used as an initial or a primary intervention for knee osteoarthritis (OA). Consistent evidence indicates CSIs offer symptom relief with conflicting reports regarding long-term efficacy. Physical therapy (PT) offers a non-invasive alternative. There is moderate evidence suggesting short-term and long-term symptom relief and functional improvement with PT interventions. Patients with knee OA are more commonly prescribed CSI than PT prior to total joint replacement. UnitedHealthcare and Military Health System data show substantially more total knee replacement patients receive preoperative CSI than PT. There are no studies comparing CSI to a PT approach in individuals with knee OA. The primary objective of this study is to compare the effectiveness of CSI to PT in individuals with knee OA at 1, 2 and 12 months.We plan to recruit 156 participants meeting established knee OA criteria. Following informed consent, participants will be randomised to receive either CSI or PT. All participants will receive instruction on recommended exercise and weight control strategies plus usual medical care. The CSI intervention consisting of 3 injections and the PT intervention consisting of 8-12 sessions will be spaced over 12 months. Measures of the dependent variables (DVs) will occur at baseline, 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 6 months and 12 months post enrolment. This pragmatic, randomised clinical trial will be a mixed-model 2×5 factorial design. The independent variables are treatment (CSI and PT) and time with five levels from baseline to 1 year. The primary DV is the Western Ontario & McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC). We will also compare healthcare utilisation between the 2 groups.The protocol was approved by the Madigan Army Medical Center Institutional Review Board. The authors intend to publish the results in a peer-reviewed source.NCT01427153

Opening Value Theory to the Brand

This essay explores the value form of branding as it can be understood through an interpretation of Marx\u27s value theory in the tradition of Resnick and Wolff. It argues that a brand is best understood as a fictitious value form—a construct that allows expected future revenues to circulate as current values. In combination, consumers’ communicative work about a brand and their payment of a price premium at the cash register make the brand intellectual property with a positive money equivalent. The brand\u27s value form bears no necessary relationship to the paid advertising, marketing labor, and unpaid communicative work of consumers that went into its creation but is rather found to be in proportion to the expected future payments of the price premium. The brand\u27s money equivalent can now potentially be realized, but no productive labor has yet been performed and no labor value has been realized, making the brand a fictitious value form