Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity

Epidemiology of physical activity in adult Polish population in the second decade of the 21st century. Results of the NATPOL 2011 study

Objectives: The aim of the study was to assess physical activity (PA) level in a representative sample of Polish adults.Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was performed among 2413 randomly selected individuals (51.5% women) aged 18-79 years, who participated in the Nationwide Study of Occurrence of Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Diseases NATPOL 2011 (March-July 2011). The study procedures consisted of a questionnaire as well as of anthropometric, blood pressure and biochemical measurements. Leisure-time, occupational and commuting PA were assessed by the use of a questionnaire interview. Results: About 48.2% of adults do exercise for at least 30 minutes on most days of a week. About 11% of the respondents declare a sedentary lifestyle. About 26.5% of working population report hard physical work, while sedentary work is reported by 47.6% of the employed participants. Active commuting is declared by 27.3% of working/studying population. About 47.2%, 36.6%, and 15.3% spend 30 min per day, respectively, on this kind of PA. Conclusions: PA level of more than half of Polish adults is still not satisfactory. Promotion of an active lifestyle should concern mainly leisure-time and commuting PA with paying special attention to substantial differences in various socio-demographic groups