The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices

Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated, so that changes in the price of oil appear to translate into changes in the price of natural gas. Yet at times in the past, and very powerfully in the last two years, many voices have noted that the two prices series appear to have "decoupled". We explore the apparent contradiction between these two views. Although we also find that the two series are cointegrated, recognition of the statistical fact of cointegration needs to be tempered with two additional points that we think have been insufficiently emphasized in the past literature. First, there is an enormous amount of unexplained volatility in natural gas prices at short horizons. Hence, any simple formulaic relationship between the price of oil and the price of natural gas will leave a large portion of the price of natural gas unexplained. Second, the cointegrating relationship does not appear to be stable through time. Natural gas prices may be tied to oil prices, but the relationship can shift dramatically over time. Therefore, although the two price series are cointegrated, the confidence intervals for both short and long time horizons are large.Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Researc

Kaon decay interferometry as meson dynamics probes

We discuss the time dependent interferences between $K_L$ and $K_S$ in the decays in $3\pi$ and $\pi\pi\gamma$, to be studied at interferometry machines such as the $\phi$-factory and LEAR. We emphasize the possibilities and the advantages of using interferences, in comparison with width measurements, to obtain information both on $CP$ conserving and $CP$ violating amplitudes. Comparison with present data and suggestions for future experiments are made.Comment: 15 pages, in RevTex, Report INFNNA-IV-93-31, UTS-DFT-93-2

The role of c-Jun in controlling the EPAC1-dependent induction of the SOCS3 gene in HUVECs

The cyclic AMP sensor, EPAC1, activates AP1-mediated transcription in HUVECs. Correspondingly, induction of the SOCS3 minimal promoter by EPAC1 requires a single AP1 site that constitutively binds phosphorylated (Ser63) c-Jun in DNA-pull-down assays. c-Jun (Ser63) becomes further phosphorylated following cyclic AMP stimulation and specific activation of protein kinase A (PKA), but not through selective activation of EPAC1. Moreover, despite a requirement for c-Jun for SOCS3 induction in fibroblasts, phospho-null c-Jun (Ser63/73Ala) had little effect on SOCS3 induction by cyclic AMP in HUVECs. AP1 activation and SOCS3 induction by EPAC1 in HUVECs therefore occur independently of c-Jun phosphorylation on Ser63

The relationship between crude oil and natural gas spot prices and its stability over time

Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2010.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 122-126).The historical basis for a link between crude oil and natural gas prices was examined to determine whether one has existed in the past and exists in the present. Physical bases for a price relationship are examined. An econometric modeling exercise seeks to establish whether a stable price relationship exists and to define it through the use of a vector error correction model. The model identifies strong evidence of cointegration between the crude oil and natural gas spot price series in the United States. It conditions the predicted natural gas price volatility through exogenous variables related to weather and supply. Once identified, the relationship is clarified more efficiently through the implementation of a conditional error correction model. The model is then utilized to simulate the effects of weather shocks, seasonality, supply deviations and hurricane activity on the cointegrating relationship between crude oil and natural gas. Finally, an analysis is conducted to test whether the relationship shifts over time to new equilibria. The results of the series of exercises suggest that crude oil and natural gas prices have moved together historically and statistical analysis supports the assumption that the two price series continued to be cointegrated through the end of 2008. The analysis presents evidence that the relationship shifts over time to new equilibria, and the data suggest that these new eqilibria are likewise stable.by David J. Ramberg.S.M.in Technology and Polic

Final State Interactions and CP Violation in KL→π+π−e+e−K_L \to \pi^+ \pi^- e^+ e^-

Using chiral perturbation theory we calculate the imaginary parts of the $K_L \rightarrow \pi^+ \pi^- e^+ e^-$ form factors that arise from $\pi \pi \rightarrow \pi^+ \pi^-$ and $\pi \pi \rightarrow \pi^+ \pi^- \gamma^*$ rescattering. We discuss their influence on CP violating variables in $K_L \rightarrow \pi^+ \pi^- e^+ e^-$.Comment: ; 12 pages, 2 figures, TeX format; uses epsf.tex, tables.tex, and phyzzx.te

To be or not to be an auctioneer: Some thoughts on the legal nature of online eBay auctions and the protection of consumers

This paper discusses the legal classification of online “eBay” auctions. The discussion has key implications on the scope of consumer protection law as sale by auctions are, for example, excluded from the scope of the Consumer Protection (Distance Selling) Regulations 2000. The paper uncovers that online “eBay” auctions cannot always be considered as traditional auctions and that eBay, as an intermediary, is not to be considered as an auctioneer. This creates difficulties associated with a distributive application of consumer protection laws such as the Consumer Protection (Distance Selling) Regulations 2000. Another set of difficulties is associated with a lenient legal regime applicable to the liability of eBay under the Electronic Commerce (EC Directive) Regulations 2002 . The paper concludes that there is an urgent need to clarify the legal classification of online auctions and to rethink the liability of online auction sites to better protect consumers

SELEX RICH Performance and Physics Results

SELEX took data in the 1996/7 Fixed Target Run at Fermilab. The excellent performance parameters of the SELEX RICH Detector had direct influence on the quality of the obtained physics results.Comment: Contributed talk at the Fourth Workshop on RICH Detectors, June 5-10, 2002, Pylos, Greece. Accepted for publication in NIM