Association of State COVID-19 Vaccination Prioritization With Vaccination Rates Among Incarcerated Persons

Risk of COVID-19 transmission is increased in prisons and surrounding communities. COVID-19 can spread rapidly in these facilities owing to crowding, inability to socially distance, poor ventilation, continuous admissions and releases, and daily work staff. High rates of chronic and immunocompromising conditions such as HIV among incarcerated persons are associated with greater risk of COVID-19

FOREGONE INTEREST AND CONTRACT MISPRICING IN PREDICTIVE MARKETS

Over the past 20 years, predictive markets have risen from relative obscurity to prominence. Relevant across several fields of study, these markets have utilized collective wisdom in order to better ascertain outcomes of future events. This paper look at the mechanics of trading and finds enduring pricing anomalies based on errant behavior on behalf of both buyers and sellers. Specifically, trading behavior seems to ignore the time value of money associated with buying and selling contracts even when the interest foregone is non-trivial. As such, the possibility for arbitrage presents itself in some of these cases. Finally, we examine the associated consequences of this behavior in regards to the mechanics of these markets and possible strengthening reforms in hopes of developing deeper, more robust predictions markets.The authors would like to thank Andrew de los Reyes and David Gordon for their help with research.  In addition, we would like to thank Professor Michael Abramowicz for helpful comments

Forgone Interest and Contract Mispricing in Predictive Markets

Over the past 20 years, predictive markets have risen from relative obscurity to prominence. Relevant across several fields of study, these markets have utilized collective wisdom in order to better ascertain outcomes of future events. This paper look at the mechanics of trading and finds enduring pricing anomalies based on errant behavior on behalf of both buyers and sellers. Specifically, trading behavior seems to ignore the time value of money associated with buying and selling contracts even when the interest forgone is non-trivial. As such, the possibility for arbitrage presents itself in some of these cases. Finally, we examine the associated consequences of this behavior in regards to the mechanics of these markets and possible strengthening reforms in hopes of developing deeper, more robust predictions markets.

State-level prescription drug monitoring program mandates and adolescent injection drug use in the United States, 1995-2017: A difference-in-differences analysis.

BackgroundPrescription opioid misuse is an ongoing crisis and a risk factor for injection drug use (IDU). Few studies have evaluated strategies for preventing opioid or IDU initiation among adolescents. We evaluated changes in the proportion of adolescents reporting IDU before and after prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) mandates were implemented in 18 states compared to 29 states without such mandates.Methods and findingsThis difference-in-differences analysis used biannual Youth Risk Behavioral Surveillance System (YRBSS) data representative of adolescents 17 to 18 years old across 47 states from 1995 to 2017. We compared changes in adolescent IDU in 18 states with and 29 states without PDMP mandates. Among 331,025 adolescents, 51.7% identified as male, 62.1% as non-Hispanic white, 17.4% as non-Hispanic black, and 14.6% as Hispanic. Overall, 3.5% reported IDU during the 2 years prior to PDMP mandates. In the final multivariable difference-in-differences model, we included individual age, sex, and race/ethnicity, as well as state and year as covariates from the YRBSS. We also included state- and year-specific poverty rates based on US Census Bureau data. Additionally, we controlled for state implementation of (non-mandated) PDMPs before states subsequently implemented mandates and pill mill laws. We conducted several sensitivity analyses, including repeating our main analysis using a logistic, rather than linear, model, and with a lead indicator on PDMP mandate implementation, a lag indicator, and alternative policy implementation dates. PDMP mandates were associated with a 1.5 percentage point reduction (95% CI -2.3 to -0.6 percentage points; p = 0.001) in adolescent IDU, on average over the years following mandate implementation, a relative reduction of 42.9% (95% CI -65.7% to -17.1%). The association of PDMP mandates with this reduction persisted at least 4 years beyond implementation. Sensitivity analyses were consistent with the main results. Limitations include the multi-stepped causal pathway from PDMP mandate implementation to changes in IDU and the potential for omitted state-level time-varying confounders.ConclusionsOur analysis indicated that PDMP mandates were associated with a reduction in adolescent IDU, providing empirical evidence that such mandates may prevent adolescents from initiating IDU. Policymakers might consider PDMP mandates as a potential strategy for preventing adolescent IDU

Preventing unintended pregnancy and HIV transmission: Effects of the HIV treatment cascade on contraceptive use and choice in rural Kwa Zulu-Natal

Background: For women living with HIV, contraception using condoms is recommended because it prevents not only unintended pregnancy but also acquisition of other sexually transmitted infections and onward transmission of HIV. Dual-method dualprotection contraception (condoms with other contraceptive methods) is preferable over single-method dual-protection contraception (condoms alone) because of its higher contraceptive effectiveness. We estimate the effect of progression through the HIV treatment cascade on contraceptive use and choice among HIV-infected women in rural South Africa. Methods: We linked population-based surveillance data on contraception collected by the Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies to data from the local antiretroviral treatment (ART) program in Hlabisa subdistrict, KwaZulu-Natal. In bivariate probit regression, we estimated the effects of progressing through the cascade on contraceptive choice among HIV-infected sexually active women aged 15–49 years (N = 3169), controlling for a wide range of potential confounders. Findings: Contraception use increased across the cascade from ,40% among HIV-infected women who did not know their status to .70% among women who have been on ART for 4–7 years. Holding other factors equal (1) awareness of HIV status, (2) ART initiation, and (3) being on ART for 4–7 years increased the likelihood of single-method/ dual-method dual protection by the following percentage points (pp), compared with women who were unaware of their HIV status: (1) 4.6 pp (P = 0.030)/3.5 pp (P = 0.001), (2) 10.3 pp (P = 0.003)/5.2 pp (P = 0.007), and (3) 21.6 pp (P , 0.001)/11.2 pp (P , 0.001). Conclusions: Progression through the HIV treatment cascade significantly increased the likelihood of contraception in general and contraception with condoms in particular. ART programs are likely to contribute to HIV prevention through the behavioral pathway of changing contraception use and choice

Looking under the lamp-post: quantifying the performance of contact tracing in the United States during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Abstract Contact tracing forms a crucial part of the public-health toolbox in mitigating and understanding emergent pathogens and nascent disease outbreaks. Contact tracing in the United States was conducted during the pre-Omicron phase of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This tracing relied on voluntary reporting and responses, often using rapid antigen tests due to lack of accessibility to PCR tests. These limitations, combined with SARS-CoV-2’s propensity for asymptomatic transmission, raise the question “how reliable was contact tracing for COVID-19 in the United States”? We answered this question using a Markov model to examine the efficiency with which transmission could be detected based on the design and response rates of contact tracing studies in the United States. Our results suggest that contact tracing protocols in the U.S. are unlikely to have identified more than 1.65% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.62-1.68%) of transmission events with PCR testing and 1.00% (95% uncertainty interval 0.98-1.02%) with rapid antigen testing. When considering a more robust contact tracing scenario, based on compliance rates in East Asia with PCR testing, this increases to 62.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 62.6-62.8%). We did not assume presence of asymptomatic transmission or superspreading, making our estimates upper bounds on the actual percentages traced. These findings highlight the limitations in interpretability for studies of SARS-CoV-2 disease spread based on U.S. contact tracing and underscore the vulnerability of the population to future disease outbreaks, for SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens

Expiring Eviction Moratoriums and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated economic crisis have placed millions of US households at risk of eviction. Evictions may accelerate COVID-19 transmission by decreasing individuals' ability to socially distance. We leveraged variation in the expiration of eviction moratoriums in US states to test for associations between evictions and COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The study included 44 US states that instituted eviction moratoriums, followed from March 13 to September 3, 2020. We modeled associations using a difference-in-difference approach with an event-study specification. Negative binomial regression models of cases and deaths included fixed effects for state and week and controlled for time-varying indicators of testing, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and mask mandates. COVID-19 incidence and mortality increased steadily in states after eviction moratoriums expired, and expiration was associated with a doubling of COVID-19 incidence (incidence rate ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 3.9) and a 5-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality (mortality rate ratio = 5.4; CI: 3.1, 9.3) 16 weeks after moratoriums lapsed. These results imply an estimated 433,700 excess cases (CI: 365,200, 502,200) and 10,700 excess deaths (CI: 8,900, 12,500) nationally by September 3, 2020. The expiration of eviction moratoriums was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence and mortality, supporting the public-health rationale for eviction prevention to limit COVID-19 cases and deaths