Integrating climate change criteria in reforestation projects using a hybrid decision-support system

The selection of appropriate species in a reforestation project has always been a complex decision making problem in which, due mostly to government policies and other stakeholders, not only economic criteria but also other environmental issues interact. Climate change has not usually been taken into account in traditional reforestation decision-making strategies and management procedures. Moreover, there is a lack of agreement on the percentage of each one of the species in reforestation planning, which is usually calculated in a discretionary way. In this context, an effective multicriteria technique has been developed in order to improve the process of selecting species for reforestation in the Mediterranean region of Spain. A hybrid Delphi-AHP methodology is proposed, which includes a consistency analysis in order to reduce random choices. As a result, this technique provides an optimal percentage distribution of the appropriate species to be used in reforestation planning. The highest values of the weight given for each subcriteria corresponded to FR (fire forest response) and PR (pests and diseases risk), because of the increasing importance of the impact of climate change in the forest. However, CB (conservation of biodiversitiy)was in the third position in line with the aim of reforestation. Therefore, the most suitable species were Quercus faginea (19.75%) and Quercus ilex (19.35%), which offer a good balance between all the factors affecting the success and viability of reforestation.Curiel Esparza, J.; González Utrillas, NV.; Cantó Perelló, J.; Martín Utrillas, MG. (2015). Integrating climate change criteria in reforestation projects using a hybrid decision-support system. Environmental Research Letters. 10(9):1-13. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094022S113109Amraoui, M., Pereira, M. G., DaCamara, C. C., & Calado, T. J. (2015). Atmospheric conditions associated with extreme fire activity in the Western Mediterranean region. 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Farm-SAFE: The process of developing a plot- and farm-scale model of arable, forestry, and silvoarable economics

Financial feasibility and financial return are two key issues that farmers and land owners consider when deciding between alternative land uses such as arable farming, forestry and agroforestry. Moreover regional variations in yields, prices and government grants mean that the relative revenue and cost of such systems can vary substantially within Europe. To aid our understanding of these variations, the European Commission sponsored a research project called “Silvoarable Agroforestry For Europe” (SAFE). This paper describes the process of developing a new economic model within that project. The initial stages included establishing criteria for the model with end-users and reviewing the literature and existing models. This indicated that the economic model needed to allow comparison of arable farming, forestry and agroforestry systems at a plot- and a farm-scale. The form of comparisons included net margins, net present values, infinite net present values, equivalent annual values, and labour requirements. It was decided that the model would operate in a spreadsheet format, and the effect of phased planting patterns would be included at a farm- scale. Following initial development, additional user feedback led to a final choice on a model name, a final method of collating input data, and the inclusion of field-based operations such as varying the cropped area, replacing dead trees, and pruning. In addition options in terms of improved graphical outputs and the ability to undertake sensitivity analysis were developed. Some of the key lessons learnt include the need to establish clear model criteria and the benefits of developing a working prototype at an early stage to gain user- feed

Rates of age verification for cigarette and e-cigarette purchases as a function of state T21 laws before and after implementation of the federal T21 law in the United States

BACKGROUND: This study examined the extent to which having a 21 minimum legal sales age for tobacco (T21) at the state level impacted age verification of cigarette and e-cigarette purchases among US young adults (ages 18-26) before and after federal T21 implementation. METHODS: We analyzed data from cigarette and/or e-cigarette users (n=618 and n=864) in 6 metropolitan areas in 6 states. Participants reported frequency of being age verified ( almost always vs. less frequently) for cigarette and/or e-cigarette purchases across 3 timepoints (i.e., Wave 1 [W1]: Sept-Dec 2018; W2: Sept-Dec 2019; W3: Sept-Dec 2020). Multilevel modeling examined time-varying state T21 status and time (reflecting federal T21 implementation) in relation to age verification of cigarette and e-cigarette purchases, respectively. RESULTS: The proportions almost always age verified for cigarette purchases in states with T21 versus without were: W1: 38.5% versus 37.7%; W2: 33.0% versus 39.1%; and W3: 45.4% versus 30.6%. For e-cigarettes, the proportions were: W1: 30.6% versus 40.3%; W2: 42.3% versus 50.5%; and W3: 56.0% versus 58.3%. In multilevel modeling, state T21 status was associated with greater likelihood of age verification for e-cigarettes (aOR=1.67, CI=1.13-2.45), but not for cigarettes. Age verification increased over time for e-cigarettes - both accounting for and not accounting for state T21 status. There were no changes for cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: State T21 status and time correlated with age verification for e-cigarettes, but not cigarettes. These self-reported age verification data contribute to evidence from compliance checks, indicating that retailers require additional prompts and enforcement to enhance compliance with T21 laws. IMPLICATIONS: Current findings suggest that variations in regulations and gaps in enforcement may hinder the potential impact of increasing the minimum legal sales age, which ultimately may undermine the promise of such policies, specifically with regard to preventing tobacco use among the underage. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor retailer compliance with T21 laws and evaluate their efficacy to increase/improve ID checks, minimize illegal sales, and curb underage use of tobacco. Relatedly, particular attention to enforcement efforts that may promote compliance is warranted