What do we know about communicating risk? A brief review and suggestion for contextualising serious, but rare, risk, and the example of cox-2 selective and non-selective NSAIDs

BACKGROUND: Communicating risk is difficult. Although different methods have been proposed - using numbers, words, pictures or combinations - none has been extensively tested. We used electronic and bibliographic searches to review evidence concerning risk perception and presentation. People tend to underestimate common risk and overestimate rare risk; they respond to risks primarily on the basis of emotion rather than facts, seem to be risk averse when faced with medical interventions, and want information on even the rarest of adverse events. METHODS: We identified observational studies (primarily in the form of meta-analyses) with information on individual non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) or selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor (coxib) use and relative risk of gastrointestinal bleed or cardiovascular event, the background rate of events in the absence of NSAID or coxib, and the likelihood of death from an event. Using this information we present the outcome of additional risk of death from gastrointestinal bleed and cardiovascular event for individual NSAIDs and coxibs alongside information about death from other causes in a series of perspective scales. RESULTS: The literature on communicating risk to patients is limited. There are problems with literacy, numeracy and the human tendency to overestimate rare risk and underestimate common risk. There is inconsistency in how people translate between numbers and words. We present a method of communicating information about serious risks using the common outcome of death, using pictures, numbers and words, and contextualising the information. The use of this method for gastrointestinal and cardiovascular harm with NSAIDs and coxibs shows differences between individual NSAIDs and coxibs. CONCLUSION: Although contextualised risk information can be provided on two possible adverse events, many other possible adverse events with potential serious consequences were omitted. Patients and professionals want much information about risks of medical interventions but we do not know how best to meet expectations. The impact of contextualised information remains to be tested

The DRIFT Dark Matter Experiments

The current status of the DRIFT (Directional Recoil Identification From Tracks) experiment at Boulby Mine is presented, including the latest limits on the WIMP spin-dependent cross-section from 1.5 kg days of running with a mixture of CS2 and CF4. Planned upgrades to DRIFT IId are detailed, along with ongoing work towards DRIFT III, which aims to be the world's first 10 m3-scale directional Dark Matter detector.Comment: Proceedings of the 3rd International conference on Directional Detection of Dark Matter (CYGNUS 2011), Aussois, France, 8-10 June 201

First measurement of the Head-Tail directional nuclear recoil signature at energies relevant to WIMP dark matter searches

We present first evidence for the so-called Head-Tail asymmetry signature of neutron-induced nuclear recoil tracks at energies down to 1.5 keV/amu using the 1m^3 DRIFT-IIc dark matter detector. This regime is appropriate for recoils induced by Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMPs) but one where the differential ionization is poorly understood. We show that the distribution of recoil energies and directions induced here by Cf-252 neutrons matches well that expected from massive WIMPs. The results open a powerful new means of searching for a galactic signature from WIMPs.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figures, 1 tabl

Low Energy Electron and Nuclear Recoil Thresholds in the DRIFT-II Negative Ion TPC for Dark Matter Searches

Understanding the ability to measure and discriminate particle events at the lowest possible energy is an essential requirement in developing new experiments to search for weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. In this paper we detail an assessment of the potential sensitivity below 10 keV in the 1 m^3 DRIFT-II directionally sensitive, low pressure, negative ion time projection chamber (NITPC), based on event-by-event track reconstruction and calorimetry in the multiwire proportional chamber (MWPC) readout. By application of a digital smoothing polynomial it is shown that the detector is sensitive to sulfur and carbon recoils down to 2.9 and 1.9 keV respectively, and 1.2 keV for electron induced events. The energy sensitivity is demonstrated through the 5.9 keV gamma spectrum of 55Fe, where the energy resolution is sufficient to identify the escape peak. The effect a lower energy sensitivity on the WIMP exclusion limit is demonstrated. In addition to recoil direction reconstruction for WIMP searches this sensitivity suggests new prospects for applications also in KK axion searches

Quenching Factor for Low Energy Nuclear Recoils in a Plastic Scintillator

Plastic scintillators are widely used in industry, medicine and scientific research, including nuclear and particle physics. Although one of their most common applications is in neutron detection, experimental data on their response to low-energy nuclear recoils are scarce. Here, the relative scintillation efficiency for neutron-induced nuclear recoils in a polystyrene-based plastic scintillator (UPS-923A) is presented, exploring recoil energies between 125 keV and 850 keV. Monte Carlo simulations, incorporating light collection efficiency and energy resolution effects, are used to generate neutron scattering spectra which are matched to observed distributions of scintillation signals to parameterise the energy-dependent quenching factor. At energies above 300 keV the dependence is reasonably described using the semi-empirical formulation of Birks and a kB factor of (0.014+/-0.002) g/MeVcm^2 has been determined. Below that energy the measured quenching factor falls more steeply than predicted by the Birks formalism.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figure