A framework for a joint hydro-meteorological-social analysis of drought

This article presents an innovative framework for analysing environmental governance challenges by focusing on their Drivers, Responses and Impacts (DRI). It builds on and modifies the widely applied Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts and Responses (DPSIR) model. It suggests, firstly and most importantly, that the various temporal and spatial scales at which Drivers, Responses and Impacts operate should be included in the DRI conceptual framework. Secondly, the framework focuses on Drivers, Impacts and Responses in order to provide a parsimonious account of a drought system that can be informed by a range of social science, humanities and science data. ‘Pressures’ are therefore considered as a sub-category of ‘Drivers’. ‘States’ are a sub-category of ‘Impacts’. Thirdly, and most fundamentally in order to facilitate cross-disciplinary research of droughts, the DRI framework defines each of its elements, ‘Drivers’, ‘Pressures’, ‘States’, ‘Impacts’ and ‘Responses’ as capable of being shaped by both linked natural and social factors. This is different from existing DPSIR models which often see ‘Responses’ and ‘Impacts’ as located mainly in the social world, while ‘States’ are considered to be states within the natural environment only. The article illustrates this argument through an application of the DRI framework to the 1976 and 2003–6 droughts. The article also starts to address how - in cross-disciplinary research that encompasses physical and social sciences – claims about relationships between Drivers as well as Impacts of and Responses to drought over time can be methodologically justified. While the DRI framework has been inductively developed out of research on droughts we argue that it can be applied to a range of environmental governance challenges

Hydrological and sedimentation implications of landscape changes in a Himalayan catchment due to bioenergy cropping

There is a global effort to focus on the development of bioenergy and energy cropping, due to the generally increasing demand for crude oil, high oil price volatility and climate change mitigation challenges. Second generation energy cropping is expected to increase greatly in India as the Government of India has recently approved a national policy of 20 % biofuel blending by 2017; furthermore, the country’s biomass based power generation potential is estimated as around ∼24GW and large investments are expected in coming years to increase installed capacity. In this study, we have modelled the environmental influences (e.g.: hydrology and sediment) of scenarios of increased biodiesel cropping (Jatropha curcas) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a northern Indian river basin. SWAT has been applied to the River Beas basin, using daily Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) meteorological data to simulate the river regime and crop yields. We have applied Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Ver. 2 (SUFI-2) to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the stream [U+FB02]ow modelling. The model evaluation statistics for daily river flows at the Jwalamukhi and Pong gauges show good agreement with measured flows (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.70 and PBIAS of 7.54 %). The study has applied two land use change scenarios of (1) increased bioenergy cropping in marginal (grazing) lands in the lower and middle regions of catchment (2) increased bioenergy cropping in low yielding areas of row crops in the lower and middle regions of the catchment. The presentation will describe the improved understanding of the hydrological, erosion and sediment delivery and food production impacts arising from the introduction of a new cropping variety to a marginal area; and illustrate the potential prospects of bioenergy production in Himalayan valleys

Testing Broken U(1) Symmetry in a Two-Component Atomic Bose-Einstein Condensate

We present a scheme for determining if the quantum state of a small trapped Bose-Einstein condensate is a state with well defined number of atoms, a Fock state, or a state with a broken U(1) gauge symmetry, a coherent state. The proposal is based on the observation of Ramsey fringes. The population difference observed in a Ramsey fringe experiment will exhibit collapse and revivals due to the mean-field interactions. The collapse and revival times depend on the relative strength of the mean-field interactions for the two components and the initial quantum state of the condensate.Comment: 20 Pages RevTex, 3 Figure

Development and application of a catchment scale pesticide fate and transport model for use in drinking water risk assessment

This paper describes the development and application of IMPT (Integrated Model for Pesticide Transport), a parameter-efficient tool for predicting diffuse-source pesticide concentrations in surface waters used for drinking water supply. The model was applied to a small UK headwater catchment with high frequency (8 h) pesticide monitoring data and to five larger catchments (479–1653 km2) with sampling approximately every 14 days. Model performance was good for predictions of both flow (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency generally > 0.59 and PBIAS < 10%) and pesticide concentrations, although low sampling frequency in the larger catchments is likely to mask the true episodic nature of exposure. The computational efficiency of the model, along with the fact that most of its parameters can be derived from existing national soil property data mean that it can be used to rapidly predict pesticide exposure in multiple surface water resources to support operational and strategic risk assessments

Solar Flare X-ray Source Motion as a Response to Electron Spectral Hardening

Context: Solar flare hard X-rays (HXRs) are thought to be produced by nonthermal coronal electrons stopping in the chromosphere, or remaining trapped in the corona. The collisional thick target model (CTTM) predicts that sources produced by harder power-law injection spectra should appear further down the legs or footpoints of a flare loop. Therefore, hardening of the injected power-law electron spectrum during flare onset should be concurrent with a descending hard X-ray source. Aims: To test this implication of the CTTM by comparing its predicted HXR source locations with those derived from observations of a solar flare which exhibits a nonthermally-dominated spectrum before the peak in HXRs, known as an early impulsive event. Methods: HXR images and spectra of an early impulsive C-class flare were obtained using the Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). Images were reconstructed to produce HXR source height evolutions for three energy bands. Spatially-integrated spectral analysis was performed to isolate nonthermal emission, and to determine the power-law index of the electron injection spectrum. The observed height-time evolutions were then fit with CTTM-based simulated heights for each energy. Results: A good match between model and observed source heights was reached, requiring a density model that agreed well with previous studies of flare loop densities. Conclusions: The CTTM has been used to produce a descent of model HXR source heights that compares well with observations of this event. Based on this interpretation, downward motion of nonthermal sources should indeed occur in any flare where there is spectral hardening in the electron distribution during a flare. However, this would often be masked by thermal emission associated with flare plasma pre-heating.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

The absoption refrigerator as a thermal transformer

The absorption refrigerator can be considered a thermal transformer, i.e. a device that is analogous to the electric transformer. The analogy is based on a correspondence between the extensive quantities entropy and electric charge and that of the intensive variables temperature and electric potential

Super-alfvenic propagation of cosmic rays: The role of streaming modes

Numerous cosmic ray propagation and acceleration problems require knowledge of the propagation speed of relativistic particles through an ambient plasma. Previous calculations indicated that self-generated turbulence scatters relativistic particles and reduces their bulk streaming velocity to the Alfven speed. This result was incorporated into all currently prominent theories of cosmic ray acceleration and propagation. It is demonstrated that super-Alfvenic propagation is indeed possible for a wide range of physical parameters. This fact dramatically affects the predictions of these models

Using variograms to detect and attribute hydrological change

There have been many published studies aiming to identify temporal changes in river flow time series, most of which use monotonic trend tests such as the Mann–Kendall test. Although robust to both the distribution of the data and incomplete records, these tests have important limitations and provide no information as to whether a change in variability mirrors a change in magnitude. This study develops a new method for detecting periods of change in a river flow time series, using temporally shifting variograms (TSVs) based on applying variograms to moving windows in a time series and comparing these to the long-term average variogram, which characterises the temporal dependence structure in the river flow time series. Variogram properties in each moving window can also be related to potential meteorological drivers. The method is applied to 91 UK catchments which were chosen to have minimal anthropogenic influences and good quality data between 1980 and 2012 inclusive. Each of the four variogram parameters (range, sill and two measures of semi-variance) characterise different aspects of the river flow regime, and have a different relationship with the precipitation characteristics. Three variogram parameters (the sill and the two measures of semi-variance) are related to variability (either day-to-day or over the time series) and have the largest correlations with indicators describing the magnitude and variability of precipitation. The fourth (the range) is dependent on the relationship between the river flow on successive days and is most correlated with the length of wet and dry periods. Two prominent periods of change were identified: 1995–2001 and 2004–2012. The first period of change is attributed to an increase in the magnitude of rainfall whilst the second period is attributed to an increase in variability of the rainfall. The study demonstrates that variograms have considerable potential for application in the detection and attribution of temporal variability and change in hydrological systems