Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions

The Integrated Hazard Analysis Integrator

Hazard analysis addresses hazards that arise in the design, development, manufacturing, construction, facilities, transportation, operations and disposal activities associated with hardware, software, maintenance, operations and environments. An integrated hazard is an event or condition that is caused by or controlled by multiple systems, elements, or subsystems. Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is especially daunting and ambitious for large, complex systems such as NASA s Constellation program which incorporates program, systems and element components that impact others (International Space Station, public, International Partners, etc.). An appropriate IHA should identify all hazards, causes, controls and verifications used to mitigate the risk of catastrophic loss of crew, vehicle and/or mission. Unfortunately, in the current age of increased technology dependence, there is the tendency to sometimes overlook the necessary and sufficient qualifications of the integrator, that is, the person/team that identifies the parts, analyzes the architectural structure, aligns the analysis with the program plan and then communicates/coordinates with large and small components, each contributing necessary hardware, software and/or information to prevent catastrophic loss. As viewed from both Challenger and Columbia accidents, lack of appropriate communication, management errors and lack of resources dedicated to safety were cited as major contributors to these fatalities. From the accident reports, it would appear that the organizational impact of managers, integrators and safety personnel contributes more significantly to mission success and mission failure than purely technological components. If this is so, then organizations who sincerely desire mission success must put as much effort in selecting managers and integrators as they do when designing the hardware, writing the software code and analyzing competitive proposals. This paper will discuss the necessary and sufficient requirements of one of the significant contributors to mission success, the IHA integrator. Discussions will be provided to describe both the mindset required as well as deleterious assumptions/behaviors to avoid when integrating within a large scale system

Timing of Formal Phase Safety Reviews for Large-Scale Integrated Hazard Analysis

Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is a process used to identify and control unacceptable risk. As such, it does not occur in a vacuum. IHA approaches must be tailored to fit the system being analyzed. Physical, resource, organizational and temporal constraints on large-scale integrated systems impose additional direct or derived requirements on the IHA. The timing and interaction between engineering and safety organizations can provide either benefits or hindrances to the overall end product. The traditional approach for formal phase safety review timing and content, which generally works well for small- to moderate-scale systems, does not work well for very large-scale integrated systems. This paper proposes a modified approach to timing and content of formal phase safety reviews for IHA. Details of the tailoring process for IHA will describe how to avoid temporary disconnects in major milestone reviews and how to maintain a cohesive end-to-end integration story particularly for systems where the integrator inherently has little to no insight into lower level systems. The proposal has the advantage of allowing the hazard analysis development process to occur as technical data normally matures

Pengaruh Kualitas Pelayanan Dimediasi Kepuasan Pelanggan dan Kepercayaan Pelanggan terhadap Loyalitas Pelanggan pada PT Air Manado

Pembayaran rekening pelanggan tepat waktu sebagai representasi loyalitas pelanggan berperan penting untuk menunjang keberlangsungan hidup Perusahaan publik air seperti PT Air Manado. Peningkatan efisiensi penagihan rekening PT Air Manado dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai upaya antara lain meningkatkan kualitas pelayanan, kepuasan pelanggan dan kepercayaan pelanggan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh kualitas pelayanan terhadap kepuasan pelanggan, kepercayaan pelanggan dan loyalitas pelanggan , untuk mengetahui pengaruh kualitas pelayanan terhadap loyalitas pelanggan melalui kepuasan pelanggan dan kepercayaan pelanggan PT Air Manado. Populasi penelitian ini adalah para pelanggan PT Air Manado, jumlah sampel 161 responden, tenik probability sampling dan metoda pengumpulan data angket terbuka. Metoda Penelitian menggunakan Path Analysis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ada pengaruh: (1) signifikan Kualitas Pelayanan terhadap Kepuasan Pelanggan (2) tidak signifikan Kepuasan Pelanggan terhadap Loyalitas Pelanggan; (3) tidak signifikan Kualitas Pelayanan terhadap Loyalitas Pelanggan (4) signifikan Kepuasan Pelanggan terhadap Kepercayaan Pelanggan; (5) signifikan Kualitas Pelayanan terhadap Kepercayaan Pelanggan; (6) tidak signifikan Kepercayaan Pelanggan terhadap Loyalitas Pelanggan; (7) signifikan Kualitas Pelayanan terhadap Loyalitas Pelanggan dimediasi Kepuasan Pelanggan; (8) tidak signifikan Kualitas Pelayanan terhadap Loyalitas Pelanggan dimediasi Kepercayaan Pelanggan di PT Air Manado. Kata kunci : kualitas pelayanan, kepuasan pelanggan, kepercayaan pelanggan, loyalitas pelangga

JAK2V617F promotes replication fork stalling with disease-restricted impairment of the intra-S checkpoint response

Cancers result from the accumulation of genetic lesions, but the cellular consequences of driver mutations remain unclear, especially during the earliest stages of malignancy. The V617F mutation in the JAK2 non-receptor tyrosine kinase (JAK2V617F) is present as an early somatic event in most patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs), and the study of these chronic myeloid malignancies provides an experimentally tractable approach to understanding early tumorigenesis. Introduction of exogenous JAK2V617F impairs replication fork progression and is associated with activation of the intra-S checkpoint, with both effects mediated by phosphatidylinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) signaling. Analysis of clonally derived JAK2V617F-positive erythroblasts from MPN patients also demonstrated impaired replication fork progression accompanied by increased levels of replication protein A (RPA)-containing foci. However, the associated intra-S checkpoint response was impaired in erythroblasts from polycythemia vera (PV) patients, but not in those from essential thrombocythemia (ET) patients. Moreover, inhibition of p53 in PV erythroblasts resulted in more gamma-H2Ax (γ-H2Ax)–marked double-stranded breaks compared with in like-treated ET erythroblasts, suggesting the defective intra-S checkpoint function seen in PV increases DNA damage in the context of attenuated p53 signaling. These results demonstrate oncogene-induced impairment of replication fork progression in primary cells from MPN patients, reveal unexpected disease-restricted differences in activation of the intra-S checkpoint, and have potential implications for the clonal evolution of malignancies

Pengaruh Kualitas Produk, Harga dan Promosi terhadap Kepuasan Pelanggan Kartu Prabayar Telkomsel

Telkomsel merupakan sebuah operator telekomunikasi seluler terbesar di Indonesia. Kualitas produk harga dan promosi merupakan hal penting yang harus diusahakan oleh setiap Perusahaan jika ingin yang dihasilkan dapat bersaing di pasar untuk memuaskan kebutuhan dan keinginan konsumen. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menegetahui pengaruh kualitas produk, harga, dan promosi terhadap kepuasan pelanggan kartu prabayar Telkomsel dikelurahan Winangun 1. Populasi penelitian ini adalah pelanggan pengguna kartu prabayar Telkomsel, teknik sampling yang digunakan accidental sampling dengan jumlah sampel 95 orang. Metode penelitian asosiatif dengan menggunakan metode analisis regresi linier berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa secara simultan kualitas produk, harga dan promosi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kepuasan pelanggan. Kualitas produk dan harga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, sedangkan promosi berpengaruh negatif namun tidak siginifikan. Manajemen Perusahan sebaiknya meningkatkan kualitas produk khususnya kualitas jaringan dengan meminimalisir terjadinya gangguan jaringan dan mempertahankan penetapan harga agar sesuai dengan kualitas produk. Kata kunci : kualitas produk, harga, promosi, kepuasan pelanggan