DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment.

Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation is summarized by a small number of data series. However, recent empirical research on factor models has shown that information contained in large data sets is relevant for the evolution of important macroeconomic series. This suggests that conventional model estimates and inference based on estimated DSGE models might be distorted. In this paper, we propose an empirical framework for the estimation of DSGE models that exploits the relevant information from a data-rich environment. This framework provides an interpretation of all information contained in a large data set, and in particular of the latent factors, through the lenses of a DSGE model. The estimation involves Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. We apply this estimation approach to a state-of-the-art DSGE monetary model. We find evidence of imperfect measurement of the model's theoretical concepts, in particular for inflation. We show that exploiting more information is important for accurate estimation of the model's concepts and shocks, and that it implies different conclusions about key structural parameters and the sources of economic fluctuations.DSGE models ; Measurement error ; Large data sets ; Factor models ; Forecasting ; MCMC ; Bayesian estimation.

The social and cultural meanings of infertility for men and women in Zambia: Legacy, family and divine intervention

Despite the high prevalence of infertility within the sub-Saharan sterility belt, infertility in Zambia is understudied, particularly from a social perspective. Furthermore, few studies in sub-Saharan Africa include the infertility experiences of men. This article seeks to fill this gap by qualitatively describing the ways in which infertility in Zambia is socially and culturally loaded for both men and women. Demonstrating fertility is necessary to be considered a full adult, a real man or woman, and to leave a legacy after death. People in Zambia, including medical professionals, currently lack the necessary information and access to (or ability to provide) care to effectively resolve fertility issues. Infertile people manage their experience through a variety of social, emotional, spiritual, and medical strategies. However, no solution is considered adequate unless the intervention results in childbirth. In this way, infertility is about producing babies and the social meaning of that process, rather than the raising of children

Risk environment in early childhood and subsequent development: the role of epigenetics.

НЕБЛАГОПРИЯТНАЯ СРЕДА В РАННЕМ ВОЗРАСТЕ И ПОСЛЕДУЮЩЕЕ РАЗВИТИЕ: РОЛЬ ЭПИГЕНЕТИКИ In Russian (references and abstract in English) The paper reviews current research findings on epigenetic processes mediating the link between unfavorable conditions in early age and the child's subsequent development, and discusses conceptual and methodological limitations of epigenetics

Developmental associations between victimization and body mass index from 3 to 10 years in a population sample

In the current prospective study, we investigated (1) whether high and low BMI in early childhood puts a child at risk of victimization by their peers, and (2) whether being victimised increases BMI over the short- and long-term, independent of the effect of BMI on victimization. We also examined whether gender moderated these prospective associations. Participants were 1344 children who were assessed yearly from ages 3 -10 years as part of the Québec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD). BMI predicted annual increases in victimization for girls aged 6 years and over; for boys aged 7 and 8 years of age, higher BMI reduced victimization over the school year. Further, victimization predicted annual increases in BMI for girls after age 6 years. When these short-term effects were held constant, victimization was also shown to have a three and five-year influence on annual BMI changes for girls from age 3 years. These short- and long-term cross-lagged effects were evident when the effects of family adversity were controlled. The findings support those from previous prospective research showing a link between higher BMI and victimization, but only for girls. Further, being victimised increased the likelihood that girls would put on weight over time, which then increased future victimization. The implications of these prospective findings for interventions are considered

Possible Indication of Narrow Baryonic Resonances Produced in the 1720-1790 MeV Mass Region

Signals of two narrow structures at M=1747 MeV and 1772 MeV were observed in the invariant masses M_{pX} and M_{\pi^{+}X} of the pp->ppX and pp->p\pi^{+}X reactions respectively. Many tests were made to see if these structures could have been produced by experimental artefacts. Their small widths and the stability of the extracted masses lead us to conclude that these structures are genuine and may correspond to new exotic baryons. Several attempts to identify them, including the possible "missing baryons" approach, are discussed.Comment: 17 pages including 8 figures and 3 tables. ReVte

Plant wax biomarkers in human evolutionary studies

Abstract Plant wax biomarkers are an innovative proxy for reconstructing vegetation composition and structure, rainfall intensity, temperature, and other climatic and environmental dynamics. Traditionally used in earth sciences and climate studies from ?off-site? ocean and lake records, biomarker research is now incorporated in archeology and paleoanthropology to answer questions relating to past human-environment interactions and human evolution. Biomarker research is generating new and exciting information on the ecological context in which Homo and its closest relatives evolved, adapted, and invented stone tool technologies. In this review, we examine plant wax biomarkers and their use in reconstructing past plant landscapes and hydroclimates. We summarize the applications of plant wax molecular proxies in archeological research, assess challenges relating to taphonomy, consider the role of modern plant ecosystems in interpreting ancient habitats, and examine case studies conducted at key paleoanthropological locations in eastern and southern Africa and Europe.1 Introduction 2 Complementary addition to multi-proxy studies 3 Taphonomic normalization 4 Establishing the plant wax ecology of modern african soil 5 Plant waxes shed light on multiple aspects of human evolution 5.1 Orbital forcing and hominin ecology 5.2 Plant landscape variability 5.3 Hominin targeted ecotones 5.4 Activity areas in caves and rock shelters 6 Where do we go from here

Breakdown of Conformal Invariance at Strongly Random Critical Points

We consider the breakdown of conformal and scale invariance in random systems with strongly random critical points. Extending previous results on one-dimensional systems, we provide an example of a three-dimensional system which has a strongly random critical point. The average correlation functions of this system demonstrate a breakdown of conformal invariance, while the typical correlation functions demonstrate a breakdown of scale invariance. The breakdown of conformal invariance is due to the vanishing of the correlation functions at the infinite disorder fixed point, causing the critical correlation functions to be controlled by a dangerously irrelevant operator describing the approach to the fixed point. We relate the computation of average correlation functions to a problem of persistence in the RG flow.Comment: 9 page

Inclusive 2H(3He,t) reaction at 2 GeV

The inclusive 2H(3He,t) reaction has been studied at 2 GeV for energy transfers up to 500 MeV and scattering angles from 0.25 up to 4 degrees. Data are well reproduced by a model based on a coupled-channel approach for describing the NN and N Delta systems. The effect of final state interaction is important in the low energy part of the spectra. In the delta region, the cross-section is very sensitive to the effects of Delta-N interaction and Delta N - NN process. The latter has also a large influence well below the pion threshold. The calculation underestimates the experimental cross-section between the quasi-elastic and the delta peaks; this is possibly due to projectile excitation or purely mesonic exchange currents.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in EPJ

Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions

The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens. A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity—the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences