Predictors of admission and readmission to hospital for major depression: A community cohort study of 52,990 individuals.

Background Our current knowledge about predictors of admission and re-admission to hospital as a result of major depressive disorder (MDD) is limited. Here we present a descriptive analysis of factors which are associated with MDD hospitalisations within a large population cohort. Methods We linked participants of the Scottish Health Survey (SHS) to historical and prospective hospital admission data. We combined information from the SHS baseline interview and historical hospitalisations to define a range of exposure variables. The main outcomes of interest were: (1) first time admission for MDD occurring after the SHS interview; and (2) readmission for MDD. We used Cox regression to determine the association between each predictor and each outcome, after adjusting for age, gender and deprivation quintile. Results 52,990 adult SHS participants were included. During a median follow-up of 4.5 years per participant, we observed 530 first-time admissions for MDD. A relatively wide range of factors – encompassing social, individual health status, and lifestyle-related exposures – were associated with this outcome (p&#60;0.05). Among the 530 participants exhibiting a de novo admission for MDD during follow-up, 118 were later re-admitted. Only older age (over 70) and a prior non-depression related psychiatric admission were associated with readmission for MDD. Limtations MDD was defined using records of International Classification of Disease hospital discharge codes rather than formal diagnostic assessments. Conclusion These findings have implications for mental health service organisation and delivery and should stimulate future research on predictive factors for admission and readmission in MDD.</p

Video assisted thoracic surgery for treatment of pneumothorax and lung resections: systematic review of randomised clinical trials

&lt;b&gt;Objectives&lt;/b&gt; To determine if video assisted thoracic surgery is associated with better clinical outcomes than thoracotomy for three common procedures: surgery for pneumothorax, minor resections, and lobectomy. &lt;b&gt;Design&lt;/b&gt; Systematic review of randomised clinical trials. &lt;b&gt;Data sources&lt;/b&gt; Medline, Embase, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, Cochrane controlled trials register. Reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; Criteria for inclusion were random allocation of patients and no concurrent use of another experimental medication or device. At least two authors performed and confirmed data abstraction and analyses. Information on quality of trials, demographics, frequency of the events, and numbers randomised were collected. &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; 12 trials randomised 670 patients. Video assisted thoracic surgery was associated with shorter length of stay (reduction ranged from 1.0 to 4.2 days) and less pain or use of pain medication than thoracotomy in the five out of seven trials in which the technique was used for pneumothorax or minor lung resection. In the treatment of pneumothorax, video assisted thoracic surgery was associated with substantially fewer recurrences than pleural drainage in two trials (from 20 to 53 events prevented per 100 treated patients). No substantial advantages were observed for video assisted thoracic surgery in lobectomies. &lt;b&gt;Conclusions&lt;/b&gt; Video assisted thoracic surgery is associated with better outcomes and seems to have a complication profile comparable with that of thoracotomy for the treatment of pneumothorax and minor resections. As for lobectomy, further studies are needed to determine how it compares with thoracotomy

Is there overutilisation of cataract surgery in England?

&lt;b&gt;Objectives:&lt;/b&gt; Following a 3.7-fold increase in the rate of cataract surgery in the UK between 1989 and 2004, concern has been raised as to whether this has been accompanied by an excessive decline in the threshold such that some operations are inappropriate. The objective was to measure the impact of surgery on a representative sample of patients so as to determine whether or not overutilisation of surgery is occurring. &lt;b&gt;Design:&lt;/b&gt; Prospective cohort assessed before and 3 months after surgery. &lt;b&gt;Setting:&lt;/b&gt; Ten providers (four NHS hospitals, three NHS treatment centres, three independent sector treatment centres) from across England. &lt;b&gt;Participants:&lt;/b&gt; 861 patients undergoing first eye (569) or second eye (292) cataract surgery provided preoperative data of whom 745 (87%) completed postoperative questionnaires. &lt;b&gt;Main outcome measures:&lt;/b&gt; Patient-reported visual function (VF-14); general health status and quality of life (EQ5D); postoperative complications; overall view of the operation and its impact. &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; Overall, visual function improved (mean VF-14 score increased from 83.2 (SD 17.3) to 93.7 (SD 13.2)). Self-reported general health status deteriorated (20.3% fair or poor before surgery compared with 25% afterwards) which was reflected in the mean EQ5D score (0.82 vs 0.79; p = 0.003). At least one complication was reported by 66 (8.9%) patients, though this probably overestimated the true incidence. If the appropriateness of surgery is based on an increase in VF-14 score of 5.5 (that corresponds to patients’ reporting being "a little better"), 30% of operations would be deemed inappropriate. If an increase of 12.2 (patients’ reports of being "much better") is adopted, the proportion inappropriate is 49%. Using a different approach to determining a minimally important difference, the proportion inappropriate would be closer to 20%. Although visual function (VF-14) scores were unchanged or deteriorated in 25% of patients, 93.1% rated the results of the operation as "good," "very good" or "excellent," and 93.5% felt their eye problem was "better." This partly reflects inadequacies in the validity of the VF-14. &lt;b&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/b&gt; Improvement in the provision of cataract surgery has been accompanied by a reduction in the visual function threshold. However, methodological difficulties in measuring the impact of cataract surgery on visual function and quality of life mean it is impossible to determine whether or not overutilisation of cataract surgery is occurring. N Black1, J Browne1, J van der Meulen1, L Jamieson2, L Copley2 and J Lewsey

Survival after liver transplantation in the United Kingdom and Ireland compared with the United States

&lt;b&gt;Background and Aim&lt;/b&gt;: Surgical mortality in the US is widely perceived to be superior to that in the UK. However, previous comparisons of surgical outcome in the two countries have often failed to take sufficient account of case-mix or examine long-term outcome. The standardised nature of liver transplantation practice makes it uniquely placed for undertaking reliable international comparisons of surgical outcome. The objective of this study is to undertake a risk-adjusted disease-specific comparison of both short- and long-term survival of liver transplant recipients in the UK and Ireland with that in the US. &lt;b&gt;Design, setting and participants&lt;/b&gt;: Multi-centre cohort study using two high quality national databases including all adults who underwent a first single organ liver transplant in the UK and Ireland (n=5,925) and the US (n=41,866) between March 1994 and March 2005. &lt;b&gt;Main outcome measures&lt;/b&gt;: Post-transplant mortality during the first 90 days, 90 days-1 year and beyond the first year, adjusted for donor and recipient characteristics. &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt;: Risk-adjusted mortality in the UK and Ireland was generally higher than in the US during the first 90 days (hazard ratio 1.17 95%CI 1.07-1.29), both for patients transplanted for acute liver failure (hazard ratio 1.27 95%CI 1.01-1.60) as well as those transplanted for chronic liver disease (hazard ratio 1.18 95% CI 1.07- 1.31). Between 90 days and 1 year post-transplantation, no statistically significant differences in overall risk- adjusted mortality were noted between the two cohorts. Survivors of the first post-transplant year in the UK and Ireland had lower overall risk-adjusted mortality than those transplanted in the US (hazard ratio 0.88 95% CI 0.81- 0.96). This difference was observed among patients transplanted for chronic liver disease (hazard ratio 0.88 95%CI 0.81-0.96) but not those transplanted for acute liver failure (hazard ratio 1.02 95%CI 0.70- 1.50). &lt;b&gt;Conclusions&lt;/b&gt;: Whilst risk adjusted mortality is higher in the UK and Ireland during the first 90 days following liver transplantation, it is higher in the US among those liver transplant recipients who survived the first post- transplant year. Our results are consistent with the notion that the US has superior acute peri-operative care whereas the UK appears to provide better quality chronic care following liver transplantation surgery

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991–2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis

Objective: To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England &#38; Wales (E&#38;W). Study design: Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. Methods: We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. Results: The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&#38;W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&#38;W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in alcohol-related mortality during the 1990s. Conclusions: Future policy should ensure that alcohol affordability and availability, as well as socio-economic inequality, are reduced, in order to maintain downward trends in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland

Towards transforming community eye care: an observational study and time-series analysis of optometrists' prescribing for eye disorders

Objectives: This study aimed to provide evidence on the therapeutic prescribing activity by community optometrists in Scotland and to determine its impact on workload in general practice and ophthalmology clinics. Study design: Scottish administrative healthcare data for a 53-month period (November 2013–April 2018) were used to analyse non-medical prescribing practice by optometrists. Methods: Using interrupted time-series regression (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), we assessed the impact of optometrist prescribing on ophthalmology outpatient attendances and general practice prescribing for eye disorders. Results: A total of 54,246 items were prescribed by 205 optometrists over the study period. Since the commencement of data recording, optometrist prescribing activity increased steadily from a baseline of zero to 1.2% of all ophthalmic items prescribed. Neither the monthly number of items prescribed nor the size of optometric workforce were associated with a reduction in ophthalmology outpatient appointments over time. Conclusions: Optometrists increasingly contribute to community ophthalmic prescribing in Scotland, releasing capacity and lessening general practice, but not secondary care workload. There appears to be an underutilisation of optometrists related to the management of dry eye, which represents an opportunity to release further capacity

Mortality differences and inequalities within and between 'protected characteristics' groups, in a Scottish Cohort 1991-2009

Background: Little is known about the interaction between socio-economic status and 'protected characteristics' in Scotland. This study aimed to examine whether differences in mortality were moderated by interactions with social class or deprivation. The practical value was to pinpoint population groups for priority action on health inequality reduction and health improvement rather than a sole focus on the most deprived socioeconomic groups. Methods: We used data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study which captures a 5.3 % sample of Scotland and links the censuses of 1991, 2001 and 2011. Hazard ratios for mortality were estimated for those protected characteristics with sufficient deaths using Cox proportional hazards models and through the calculation of European age-standardised mortality rates. Inequality was measured by calculating the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Results: The Asian population had a polarised distribution across deprivation deciles and was more likely to be in social class I and II. Those reporting disablement were more likely to live in deprived areas, as were those raised Roman Catholic, whilst those raised as Church of Scotland or as 'other Christian' were less likely to. Those aged 35-54 years were the least likely to live in deprived areas and were most likely to be in social class I and II. Males had higher mortality than females, and disabled people had higher mortality than non-disabled people, across all deprivation deciles and social classes. Asian males and females had generally lower mortality hazards than majority ethnic ('White') males and females although the estimates for Asian males and females were imprecise in some social classes and deprivation deciles. Males and females who reported their raised religion as Roman Catholic or reported 'No religion' had generally higher mortality than other groups, although the estimates for 'Other religion' and 'Other Christian' were less precise. Using both the area deprivation and social class distributions for the whole population, relative mortality inequalities were usually greater amongst those who did not report being disabled, Asians and females aged 35-44 years, males by age, and people aged <75 years. The RIIs for the raised religious groups were generally similar or too imprecise to comment on differences. Conclusions: Mortality in Scotland is higher in the majority population, disabled people, males, those reporting being raised as Roman Catholics or with 'no religion' and lower in Asians, females and other religious groups. Relative inequalities in mortality were lower in disabled than nondisabled people, the majority population, females, and greatest in young adults. From the perspective of intersectionality theory, our results clearly demonstrate the importance of representing multiple identities in research on health inequalities.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Evidence synthesis for constructing directed acyclic graphs (ESC-DAGs): a novel and systematic method for building directed acyclic graphs

Background: Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are popular tools for identifying appropriate adjustment strategies for epidemiological analysis. However, a lack of direction on how to build them is problematic. As a solution, we propose using a combination of evidence synthesis strategies and causal inference principles to integrate the DAG-building exercise within the review stages of research projects. We demonstrate this idea by introducing a novel protocol: ‘Evidence Synthesis for Constructing Directed Acyclic Graphs’ (ESC-DAGs)’.\ud Methods: ESC-DAGs operates on empirical studies identified by a literature search, ideally a novel systematic review or review of systematic reviews. It involves three key stages: (i) the conclusions of each study are ‘mapped’ into a DAG; (ii) the causal structures in these DAGs are systematically assessed using several causal inference principles and are corrected accordingly; (iii) the resulting DAGs are then synthesised into one or more ‘integrated DAGs’. This demonstration article didactically applies ESC-DAGs to the literature on parental influences on offspring alcohol use during adolescence. Conclusions: ESC-DAGs is a practical, systematic and transparent approach for developing DAGs from background knowledge. These DAGs can then direct primary data analysis and DAG-based sensitivity analysis. ESC-DAGs has a modular design to allow researchers who are experienced DAG users to both use and improve upon the approach. It is also accessible to researchers with limited experience of DAGs or evidence synthesis

Joint modelling of longitudinal processes and time-to-event outcomes in heart failure: systematic review and exemplar examining the relationship between serum digoxin levels and mortality

Background: Joint modelling combines two or more statistical models to reduce bias and increase efficiency. As the use of joint modelling increases it is important to understand how and why it is being applied to heart failure research. Methods: A systematic review of major medical databases of studies which used joint modelling within heart failure alongside an exemplar; joint modelling repeat measurements of serum digoxin with all-cause mortality using data from the Effect of Digoxin on Mortality and Morbidity in Patients with Heart Failure (DIG) trial. Results: Overall, 28 studies were included that used joint models, 25 (89%) used data from cohort studies, the remaining 3 (11%) using data from clinical trials. 21 (75%) of the studies used biomarkers and the remaining studies used imaging parameters and functional parameters. The exemplar findings show that a per unit increase of square root serum digoxin is associated with the hazard of all-cause mortality increasing by 1.77 (1.34–2.33) times when adjusting for clinically relevant covariates. Conclusion: Recently, there has been a rise in publications of joint modelling being applied to heart failure. Where appropriate, joint models should be preferred over traditional models allowing for the inclusion of repeated measures while accounting for the biological nature of biomarkers and measurement error