99 research outputs found

    Casualty Losses

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    First order valence transition in YbInCu_4 in the (B,T) - plane

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    The puzzling properties of the first order phase transition in YbInCu4_4 and its alloys in the wide range of magnetic fields and temperatures are perfectly described in terms of a simple entropy transition for free Yb ions. In particular, it turns out that the transition line in the (B,T)(B,T)-plane is very close to the elliptic shape, as it has been observed experimentally. Similar calculations are done, and the experiments are proposed for the (γα)(\gamma{-}\alpha) phase transition in Ce in Megagauss fields. We speculate, that in case of YbInCu4_4 the first order transition is a Mott transition between a higher temperature phase in which localized moments are stabilized by the entropy terms in the free energy, and a band-like non-magnetic ground state of the ff-electrons.Comment: RevTeX, 5 pages, 2 figure

    Total Lightning Observations within Electrified Snowfall using Polarimetric Radar, LMA, and NLDN Measurements

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    Four electrified snowfall cases are examined using total lightning measurements from lightning mapping arrays (LMAs), and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) from Huntsville, AL and Washington D.C. In each of these events, electrical activity was in conjunction with heavy snowfall rates, sometimes exceeding 5-8 cm hr-1. A combination of LMA, and NLDN data also indicate that many of these flashes initiated from tall communications towers and traveled over large horizontal distances. During events near Huntsville, AL, the Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) C-band polarimetric radar was collecting range height indicators (RHIs) through regions of heavy snowfall. The combination of ARMOR polarimetric radar and VHF LMA observations suggested contiguous layer changes in height between sloping aggregate-dominated layers and horizontally-oriented crystals. These layers may have provided ideal conditions for the development of extensive regions of charge and resultant horizontal propagation of the lightning flashes over large distances

    Use of Dual-Polarization Radar Variables to Assess Low-Level Wind Shear in Severe Thunderstorm Near-storm Environments in the Tennessee Valley

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    The upgrade of the National Weather Service (NWS) network of S ]band dual-polarization radars is currently underway, and the incorporation of polarimetric information into the real ]time forecasting process will enhance the forecaster fs ability to assess thunderstorms and their near ]storm environments. Recent research has suggested that the combination of polarimetric variables differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP) can be useful in the assessment of low level wind shear within a thunderstorm. In an environment with strong low ]level veering of the wind, ZDR values will be largest along the right inflow edge of the thunderstorm near a large gradient in horizontal reflectivity (indicative of large raindrops falling with a relative lack of smaller drops), and take the shape of an arc. Meanwhile, KDP values, which are proportional to liquid water content and indicative of a large number of smaller drops, are maximized deeper into the forward flank precipitation shield than the ZDR arc as the smaller drops are being advected further from the updraft core by the low level winds than the larger raindrops. Using findings from previous work, three severe weather events that occurred in North Alabama were examined in order to assess the utility of these signatures in determining the potential for tornadic activity. The first case is from October 26, 2010, where a large number of storms indicated tornadic potential from a standard reflectivity and velocity analysis but very few storms actually produced tornadoes. The second event is from February 28, 2011, where tornadic storms were present early on in the event, but as the day progressed, the tornado threat transitioned to a high wind threat. The third case is from April 27, 2011, where multiple rounds of tornadic storms ransacked the Tennessee Valley. This event provides a dataset including multiple modes of tornadic development, including QLCS and supercell structures. The overarching goal of examining these three events is to compare dual ]polarization features from this larger dataset to previous work and to determine if these signatures can be a useful indication of the potential for tornadic activity associated with the amount of low ]level wind shear in the near ]storm environment

    Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

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    Key points that this analysis will begin to address are: 1)What physically is going on in the cloud when there is a jump in lightning? - Updraft variations, ice fluxes. 2)How do these processes fit in with severe storm conceptual models? 3)What would this information provide an end user (i.e., the forecaster)? - Relate LJA to radar observations, like changes in reflectivity, MESH, VIL, etc. based multi-Doppler derived physical relationships 4) How do we best transistionthis algorithm into the warning decision process. The known relationship between lightning updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production can be extended to the concept of the lightning jump. Examination of the first lightning jump times from 329 storms in Schultz et al. shows an increase in the mean reflectivity profile and mixed phase echo volume during the 10 minutes prior to the lightning jump. Limited dual-Doppler results show that the largest lightning jumps are well correlated in time with increases in updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production; however, the smaller magnitude lightning jumps appear to have more subtle relationships to updraft and ice mass characteristics

    Randomized Trial of Time-Limited Interruptions of Protease Inhibitor-Based Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) vs. Continuous Therapy for HIV-1 Infection

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    Background The clinical outcomes of short interruptions of PI-based ART regimens remains undefined. Methods A 2-arm non-inferiority trial was conducted on 53 HIV-1 infected South African participants with viral load/ml and CD4 T cell count \u3e450 cells/µl on stavudine (or zidovudine), lamivudine and lopinavir/ritonavir. Subjects were randomized to a) sequential 2, 4 and 8-week ART interruptions or b) continuous ART (cART). Primary analysis was based on the proportion of CD4 count \u3e350 cells(c)/ml over 72 weeks. Adherence, HIV-1 drug resistance, and CD4 count rise over time were analyzed as secondary endpoints. Results The proportions of CD4 counts \u3e350 cells/µl were 82.12% for the intermittent arm and 93.73 for the cART arm; the difference of 11.95% was above the defined 10% threshold for non-inferiority (upper limit of 97.5% CI, 24.1%; 2-sided CI: −0.16, 23.1). No clinically significant differences in opportunistic infections, adverse events, adherence or viral resistance were noted; after randomization, long-term CD4 rise was observed only in the cART arm. Conclusion We are unable to conclude that short PI-based ART interruptions are non-inferior to cART in retention of immune reconstitution; however, short interruptions did not lead to a greater rate of resistance mutations or adverse events than cART suggesting that this regimen may be more forgiving than NNRTIs if interruptions in therapy occur

    Identifying and Characterizing Impact Melt Outcrops in the Nectaris Basin

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    The Nectaris Basin is an 820-km diameter, multi-ring impact basin located on the near side of the Moon. Nectaris is a defining stratigraphic horizon based on relationships between ejecta units, giving its name to the Nectarian epoch of lunar history. Lunar basin chronology based on higher resolution LRO imagery and topography, while assigning some important basins like Serenitatis to pre-Nectarian time, were generally consistent with those previously derived. Based on this stratigraphy, at least 11 large basins formed in the time between Nectaris and Imbrium. The absolute age of Nectaris, therefore, is a crucial marker in the lunar time-stratigraphic sequence for understanding the impact flux on the Moon, and by extension, the entire inner solar system. For several decades, workers have attempted to constrain the age of the Nectaris basin through radiometric dating of lunar samples. However, there is little agreement on which samples in our collection represent Nectaris, if any, and what the correct radiometric age of such samples is. The importance of the age of Nectaris goes far beyond assigning a stratigraphic marker to lunar chronology. Several dynamical models use Nectaris as their pin date, so that this date becomes crucial in understanding the time-correlated effects in the rest of the solar system. The importance of the Nectaris basin age, coupled with its nearside, mid-latitude location, make remnants of the impact-melt sheet an attractive target for a future mission, either for in-situ dating or for sample return. We have started exploring this possibility. We have begun a consortium data-analysis effort bringing multiple datasets and analysis methods to bear on these putative impact-melt deposits to characterize their extent, elemental composition and mineralogy, maturity and geologic setting, and to identify potential landing sites that meet both operational safety and science requirements

    Managing contested spaces: Public managers, obscured mechanisms and the legacy of the past in Northern Ireland

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    Societies emerging from ethno-political and inter-communal conflict face a range of complex problems that stem directly from the recent lived experience of bloodshed and injury, militarisation, securitisation and segregation. As institutional agents in such an environment, public managers perform the dual role of both interpreting public policy and implementing it within a politically contested space and place. In this article we address how managers cope with the outworking of ethno-nationalist conflict and peace building within government processes and policy implementation and contend this is a subject of emerging concern within the wider public administration, urban studies and conflict literature. Using data from a witness seminar initiative on the Northern Ireland conflict transformation experience, we explain how public sector managers make sense of their role in post-agreement public management and highlight the importance of three identified mechanisms; ‘bricolage’, ‘diffusion’ and ‘translation’ in the management of public sector organisations and urban spaces in a context of entrenched conflict and an uncertain path to peace

    The role of high frequency intra-daily data, daily range and implied volatility in multi-period Value-at-Risk forecasting

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    In this paper, we assess the informational content of daily range, realized variance, realized bipower variation, two time scale realized variance, realized range and implied volatility in daily, weekly, biweekly and monthly out-of-sample Value-at-Risk (VaR) predictions. We use the recently proposed Realized GARCH model combined with the skewed student distribution for the innovations process and a Monte Carlo simulation approach in order to produce the multi-period VaR estimates. The VaR forecasts are evaluated in terms of statistical and regulatory accuracy as well as capital efficiency. Our empirical findings, based on the S&P 500 stock index, indicate that almost all realized and implied volatility measures can produce statistically and regulatory precise VaR forecasts across forecasting horizons, with the implied volatility being especially accurate in monthly VaR forecasts. The daily range produces inferior forecasting results in terms of regulatory accuracy and Basel II compliance. However, robust realized volatility measures such as the adjusted realized range and the realized bipower variation, which are immune against microstructure noise bias and price jumps respectively, generate superior VaR estimates in terms of capital efficiency, as they minimize the opportunity cost of capital and the Basel II regulatory capital. Our results highlight the importance of robust high frequency intra-daily data based volatility estimators in a multi-step VaR forecasting context as they balance between statistical or regulatory accuracy and capital efficiency
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