Urban expansion in Zanzibar City, Tanzania : Analyzing quantity, spatial patterns and effects of alternative planning approaches

Rapid urbanization and urban area expansion of sub-Saharan Africa are megatrends of the 21st century. Addressing environmental and social problems related to these megatrends requires faster and more efficient urban planning that is based on measured information of the expansion patterns. Urban growth prediction models (UGPMs) provide tools for generating such information by predicting future urban expansion patterns and allowing testing of alternative planning scenarios. We created an UGPM for Zanzibar City in Tanzania by measuring urban expansion in 2004-2009 and 2009-2013, linking the expansion to explanatory variables with a generalized additive model, measuring the accuracy of the created model, and projecting urban growth until 2030 with the business-as-usual and various alternative planning scenarios. Based on the results, the urban area of Zanzibar City expanded by 40% from 2004 to 2013. Spatial patterns of expansion were largely driven by the already existing building pattern and land-use constraints. The created model predicted future urban expansion moderately well and had an area under the curve value of 0.855 and a true skill statistic result of 0.568. Based on the business-as-usual scenario, the city will expand 89% from 2013 until 2030 and will continue to sprawl to new regions at the outskirts of the current built-up area. Establishing new urban centers had the highest impact on directing urban expansion from the tested alternative planning scenarios. However, the impact of all scenarios was low and therefore also other planning solutions such as vertical development, urban growth boundaries, and gradual improvement of the informal areas should be considered in Zanzibar.Peer reviewe

OPEN FORIS AND GOOGLE EARTH ENGINE LINKING EXPERT PARTICIPATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCE MAPPING AND REMOTE SENSING TRAINING IN TANZANIA

There is an increasing amount of open Earth observation (EO) data available, offering solutions to map, assess and monitor natural resources and to obtain answers to global and local societal challenges. With the help of free and open source software (FOSS) and open access cloud computing resources, the remote sensing community can take the full advantage of these vast geospatial data repositories. To empower developing societies, support should be given to higher education institutions (HEIs) to train professionals in using the open data, software and tools. In this paper, we describe a participatory mapping methodology, which utilizes open source software Open Foris and QGIS, various open Earth observation data catalogues, and computing capacity of the free Google Earth Engine cloud platform. Using this methodology, we arranged a collaborative data collection event, Mapathon, in Tanzania, followed by a training of the related FOSS tools for HEIs’ teaching staff. We collected feedback from the Mapathon participants about their learning experiences and from teachers about the usability of the methodology in remote sensing training in Tanzania. Based on our experiences and the received feedback, using a participatory mapping campaign as a training method can offer effective learning about environmental remote sensing through a real-world example, as well as networking and knowledge sharing possibilities for the participating group

Contemporary spatial and environmental factors determine vascular plant species richness on highly fragmented meadows in Central Finland

Context: Habitat loss is a major threat to biodiversity. It can create temporal lags in decline of species in relation to destruction of habitat coverage. Plant species specialized in semi-natural grasslands, especially meadows, often express such extinction debt.Objectives: We studied habitat loss and fragmentation of meadows and examined whether the changes in meadow coverage had caused an extinction debt on vascular plants. We also studied whether historical or present landscape patterns or contemporary environmental factors were more important determinants of species occurrence.Methods: We surveyed the plant species assemblages of 12 grazed and 12 mown meadows in Central Finland and detected the meadow coverages from their surroundings on two spatial scales and on three time steps. We modelled the effects of functional connectivity, habitat amount, and isolation on species richness and community composition.Results: We observed drastic and dynamic meadow loss in landscapes surrounding our study sites during the last 150 years. However, we did not find explicit evidence for an extinction debt in meadow plants. The observed species richness correlated with contemporary factors, whereas both contemporary factors and habitat availability during the 1960s affected community composition.Conclusions: Effective conservation management of meadow biodiversity builds on accurate understanding of the relative importance of past and present factors on species assemblages. Both mown and grazed meadows with high species richness need to be managed in the future. The management effort should preferably be targeted to sites located near to each other.</p

FOSS4G 2018

The GEO-ICT is an institutional cooperation project aiming at improving the quality and societal relevance of geospatial and ICT research and education at the Universities of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Ardhi University (ARU), State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) and Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA). Jointly with the University of Turku (UTU) Finland, the institutions focus on strengthening geospatial and ICT skills of the staff, establishing new curricula, upgrading supportive infrastructures and creating synergetic cooperation modalities with different stakeholders in the society. In this paper we share how our practical experiences of the cooperation, including what is the background for the establishment of institutional cooperation between these universities, how is the project operating in practice, what type of activities and cooperation modalities we do together and how do we think institutional cooperation contributes to the advancement of geospatial expertise in Tanzania and what is the role of open source solutions in this development.</p

Modeling direct above-ground carbon loss due to urban expansion in Zanzibar City Region, Tanzania

Expansion of urban fabric on carbon storages is estimated to cause loss of 1.38 Pg of Above-Ground Carbon (AGC) in pan-tropics between 2000 and 2030. This would be approximately 5% of all emissions caused by tropical land use changes. Despite the significance of the phenomenon, these emissions are rarely measured, monitored, or addressed in climate change mitigation plans, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, we demonstrated a state-of-the-art approach predicting AGC loss of Zanzibar City Region under multiple alternative urban planning scenarios between 2013 and 2030. The AGC information was modeled based on field measured forest inventory sample plots and RapidEye satellite data from 2013, while the future urban expansion model was calibrated with data of happened expansion between 2004, 2009 and 2013, and geospatial independent variables influencing the expansion patterns. This model was then projected until 2030, while alternative urban planning scenarios were integrated to the model by modifying the geospatial variables. The combination of these two models indicates that 42,000 Mg or 15% of total AGC in Zanzibar City Region can be anticipated to be lost by 2030 due to urban expansion. Majority of the loss will take place in the agroforest and fruit tree plantations surrounding the city, while natural forest face limited impacts. None of the tested alternative urban planning scenarios significantly impact the loss of AGC compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Therefore, alternative policies and plans are seriously needed to address the issue in Zanzibar. These could include promoting urban densification, directing urban expansion to low carbon areas, improving soil carbon management, and preparing an urban forestry and greenery strategy. All in all, the study indicates that data and methods are available for monitoring and predicting the phenomenon in Sub-Saharan Africa. Research based on a comparable methodology should be produced from all the main cities in the region that are surrounded by significant carbon storages and facing high urban expansion rates to support climate change mitigation.</p

BUILDING GEOSPATIAL COMPETENCES IN TANZANIAN UNIVERSITIES WITH OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS

The GEO-ICT is an institutional cooperation project aiming at improving the quality and societal relevance of geospatial and ICT research and education at the Universities of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Ardhi University (ARU), State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) and Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA). Jointly with the University of Turku (UTU) Finland, the institutions focus on strengthening geospatial and ICT skills of the staff, establishing new curricula, upgrading supportive infrastructures and creating synergetic cooperation modalities with different stakeholders in the society. In this paper we share how our practical experiences of the cooperation, including what is the background for the establishment of institutional cooperation between these universities, how is the project operating in practice, what type of activities and cooperation modalities we do together and how do we think institutional cooperation contributes to the advancement of geospatial expertise in Tanzania and what is the role of open source solutions in this development

Changing Role of EMS -Analyses of Non-Conveyed and Conveyed Patients in Finland

Abstract Background: Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and Emergency Departments (ED) have seen increasing attendance rates in the last decades. Currently, EMS are increasingly assessing and treating patients without the need to convey patients to health care facility. The aim of this study was to describe and compare the patient casemix between conveyed and non-conveyed patients and to analyze factors related to non-conveyance decision making. Methods: This was a prospective study design of EMS patients in Finland, and data was collected between 1st June and 30th November 2018. Adjusted ICPC2-classification was used as the reason for care. NEWS2-points were collected and analyzed both statistically and with a semi-supervised information extraction method. EMS patients’ geographic location and distance to health care facilities were analyzed by urban–rural classification. Results: Of the EMS patients (40,263), 59.8% were over 65 years of age and 46.0% of the patients had zero NEWS2 points. The most common ICPC2 code was weakness/tiredness, general (A04), as seen in 13.5% of all patients. When comparing patients between the non-conveyance and conveyance group, a total of 35,454 EMS patients met the inclusion criteria and 14,874 patients (42.0%) were not conveyed to health care facilities. According the multivariable logistic regression model, the non-conveyance decision was more likely made by ALS units, when the EMS arrival time was in the evening or night and when the distance to the health care facility was 21-40 km. Furthermore, younger patients, female gender, whether the patient had used alcohol and a rural area were also related to the non-conveyance decision. If the patient’s NEWS2 score increased by one or two points, the likelihood of conveyance increased. When there was less than 1 h to complete a shift, this did not associate with either nonconveyance or conveyance decisions. Conclusions: The role of EMS might be changing. This warrants to redesign the chain-of-survival in EMS to include not only high-risk patient groups but also non-critical and general acute patients with non-specific reasons for care. Assessment and on-scene treatment without conveyance can be called the “stretched arm of the emergency department”, but should be planned carefully to ensure patient safety. Keywords: Emergency medical services [MeSH], Non-conveyance, Conveyance</p

Human-animal agency in reindeer management: Sami herders' perspectives on vegetation dynamics under climate change

Many primary livelihoods in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions experience accelerating effects of environmental change. The often close connection between indigenous peoples and their respective territories allows them to make detailed observations of how these changes transform the landscapes where they practice their daily activities. Here, we report Sami reindeer herders' observations based on their long-term inhabitance and use of contrasting pastoral landscapes in northern Fennoscandia. In particular, we focus on the capacity for various herd management regimes to prevent a potential transformation of open tundra vegetation to shrubland or woodland. Sami herders did not confirm a substantial, rapid, or large-scale transformation of treeless tundra areas into shrub-and/or woodlands. However, where they observe encroachment of open tundra landscapes, a range of factors was deemed responsible. These included abiotic conditions, anthropogenic influences, and the direct and indirect effects of reindeer. The advance of the mountain birch tree line was in some cases associated with reduced or discontinued grazing and firewood cutting, depending on the seasonal significance of these particular areas. Where the tree line has risen in elevation and/or latitude, herding practices have by necessity adapted to these changes. Exploiting the capacity of reindeer impacts on vegetation as a conservation tool offers time-tested adaptive strategies of ecosystem management to counteract a potential encroachment of the tundra by woody plants. However, novel solutions in environmental governance involve difficult trade-offs for ecologically sustainable, economically viable, and socially desirable management strategies