Conditions for the convergence of evolutionary algorithms

Abstrac

Jurassic metasomatised lithospheric mantle beneath South China and its implications: Geochemical and Sr-Nd isotope evidence from the Late Jurassic shoshonitic rocks

It is well established that the Late Jurassic magmatism in the southeastern area of the South China Block (SCB) was associated with an extensional event. However, the triggering mechanism for this event remains unclear, with models commonly invoking either back-arc extension or intra-continental extension in response to slab roll-back of the Pacific plate or asthenospheric upwelling. The key issue about these models revolves around whether the subducted Pacific slab contributed to the mantle source beneath the SCB during the Jurassic, or not. Basalts erupted during the Late Jurassic can provide significant clues for probing the nature of the lithospheric mantle and underlying convective mantle. In this study, we present detailed zircon U-Pb geochronological, whole-rock element and Sr-Nd isotope data for Late Jurassic trachybasalt and trachyandesite from the Mashan Complex, and provide new constraints on the condition of the lithospheric mantle and mantle dynamicsof the SCB during that time. LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating suggests that these volcanic rocks erupted in the Late Jurassic (~158 Ma). All volcanic samples have shoshonitic geochemical affinities with high K2O (2.03–4.89 wt%) and K2O/Na2O (0.55–2.50). They are strongly enriched in LILE and LREE with positive K anomalies, positive εNd(t) values (from +0.8 to +3.0), moderate Dy/Yb (1.98–2.36) and low Ba/La (11.1–30.7), Th/Yb (2.29–5.77), U/Th (0.18–0.35), Th/Nb (0.16–0.27) and Th/Ce (0.08–0.15) ratios. Such geochemical signatures suggest that the Mashan volcanic rocks were derived from low-degree (1–5%) partial melting of a metasomatised lithospheric mantle with little evidence supporting the involvement of the Pacific slab in the genesis of the magmas. The synthesis of the available data shows that the Jurassic shoshonitic and mafic rocks have higher εNd(t) values than the Triassic shoshonitic and mafic rocks (εNd(t) b 0), reflecting source transformation from a Triassic enriched lithospheric mantle to a Jurassic depleted source. The metasomatism of the lithospheric mantle is likely to be associated with asthenospheric upwelling prior to the Late Jurassic. The asthenosphere-lithosphere interaction might have produced a newly metasomatised zone within the lowermost lithospheric mantle. It is inferred that the Jurassic magmatism in the southeast of the SCB might be associated with asthenospheric upwelling in an intracontinental extension setting

Engineering & physical systems Winter seminars

Engineering & physical systems winter seminar

Multi-objective optimisation based fuzzy association rule mining method

Fuzzy association rule mining (FARM) is a mainstream method to discover hidden patterns and association rules in quantitative data. It is essential to improve performance metrics, including quantity performance (e.g., the number of rules, the number of frequent itemsets) and quality performance (e.g., fuzzy support and confidence). The current approaches inadequately support optimisation of both quantity and quality performance. We propose a multi-objective optimisation algorithm for FARM (MOOFARM), where quantity and quality performance metrics are improved and validated simultaneously. The experimental evaluation conducted on a real dataset showcases the outstanding performance of MOOFARM against state-of-the-art works. In particular, at minimum support = 0.1, minimum confidence = 0.7, our MOOFARM increases the quantity performance up to 11 times. The proposed method improves the quality performance up to 71.05%

Preface

Prefac

Embedding local values in Payments for Ecosystem Services for transformative change

The potential for Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs to integrate nature's diverse values into decision-making, and thereby support broader transformative change, is of increasing research interest. We analyze published reviews and case studies of PES from the IPBES Values Assessment to evaluate 1) how diverse values were (or were not) articulated through PES programs, 2) what implications these inclusion or exclusion processes had for program evolution and outcomes, and 3) whether these outcomes support broader processes of transformative change. We find that integrating diverse values, combined with substantive decision-making by local communities, can strengthen social and environmental outcomes. However, evidence of factors that shape transformative changes from PES programs is still scarce and thus provides a fertile and much-needed avenue for further research.</p

Incorporating kidney disease measures into cardiovascular risk prediction: Development and validation in 9 million adults from 72 datasets

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. “CKD Patch” is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures. Methods: Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several “CKD Patches” incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch. Findings: We confirmed the prediction improvement with the CKD Patch for CVD mortality beyond SCORE and ASCVD beyond PCE in validation datasets (Δc-statistic 0.027 [95% CI 0.018–0.036] and 0.010 [0.007–0.013] and categorical net reclassification improvement 0.080 [0.032–0.127] and 0.056 [0.044–0.067], respectively). The median (IQI) of the ratio of predicted risk for CVD mortality with CKD Patch vs. the original prediction with SCORE was 2.64 (1.89–3.40) in very high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 30–44 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria ≥30 mg/g), 1.86 (1.48–2.44) in high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 45–59 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30–299 mg/g), and 1.37 (1.14–1.69) in moderate risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 60–89 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30–299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37–1.81), 1.24 (1.10–1.54), and 1.21 (0.98–1.46). Interpretation: The “CKD Patch” can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available. Funding: US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK

Genetic diversity fuels gene discovery for tobacco and alcohol use

Tobacco and alcohol use are heritable behaviours associated with 15% and 5.3% of worldwide deaths, respectively, due largely to broad increased risk for disease and injury1–4. These substances are used across the globe, yet genome-wide association studies have focused largely on individuals of European ancestries5. Here we leveraged global genetic diversity across 3.4 million individuals from four major clines of global ancestry (approximately 21% non-European) to power the discovery and fine-mapping of genomic loci associated with tobacco and alcohol use, to inform function of these loci via ancestry-aware transcriptome-wide association studies, and to evaluate the genetic architecture and predictive power of polygenic risk within and across populations. We found that increases in sample size and genetic diversity improved locus identification and fine-mapping resolution, and that a large majority of the 3,823 associated variants (from 2,143 loci) showed consistent effect sizes across ancestry dimensions. However, polygenic risk scores developed in one ancestry performed poorly in others, highlighting the continued need to increase sample sizes of diverse ancestries to realize any potential benefit of polygenic prediction

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation