Modelling the spread of Wolbachia in spatially heterogeneous environments

The endosymbiont Wolbachia infects a large number of insect species and is capable of rapid spread when introduced into a novel host population. The bacteria spread by manipulating their hosts' reproduction, and their dynamics are influenced by the demographic structure of the host population and patterns of contact between individuals. Reaction–diffusion models of the spatial spread of Wolbachia provide a simple analytical description of their spatial dynamics but do not account for significant details of host population dynamics. We develop a metapopulation model describing the spatial dynamics of Wolbachia in an age-structured host insect population regulated by juvenile density-dependent competition. The model produces similar dynamics to the reaction–diffusion model in the limiting case where the host's habitat quality is spatially homogeneous and Wolbachia has a small effect on host fitness. When habitat quality varies spatially, Wolbachia spread is usually much slower, and the conditions necessary for local invasion are strongly affected by immigration of insects from surrounding regions. Spread is most difficult when variation in habitat quality is spatially correlated. The results show that spatial variation in the density-dependent competition experienced by juvenile host insects can strongly affect the spread of Wolbachia infections, which is important to the use of Wolbachia to control insect vectors of human disease and other pests

Niche Markets

Is evolutionary theory is incomplete and are we failing to understand phenomena as disparate as ecosystem development and the interplay of genes and culture in shaping human evolution

Opportunities to produce food from substantially less land

The vast majority of the food we eat comes from land-based agriculture, but recent technological advances in agriculture and food technology offer the prospect of producing food using substantially less or even virtually no land. For example, indoor vertical farming can achieve very high yields of certain crops with a very small area footprint, and some foods can be synthesized from inorganic precursors in industrial facilities. Animal-based foods require substantial land per unit of protein or per calorie and switching to alternatives could reduce demand for some types of agricultural land. Plant-based meat substitutes and those produced through fermentation are widely available and becoming more sophisticated while in the future cellular agricultural may become technically and economical viable at scale. We review the state of play of these potentially disruptive technologies and explore how they may interact with other factors, both endogenous and exogenous to the food system, to affect future demand for land

Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century

The world is facing a nutrition crisis: approximately three billion people from every one of the world’s 193 countries have low-quality diets. Over the next 20 years, multiple forms of malnutrition will pose increasingly serious threats to global health. Population growth combined with climate change will place increasing stress on food systems, particularly in Africa and Asia where there will be an additional two billion people by 2050. At the same time, rapidly increasing urbanization, particularly in these two regions, will affect hunger and nutrition in complex ways – both positively and negatively. Unless policy makers apply the brakes on overweight, obesity and diet-related disease and accelerate efforts to reduce undernutrition, everyone will pay a heavy price: death, disease, economic losses and degradation of the environment. A response, equivalent to that marshalled to tackle HIV/AIDS, malaria and smoking is needed to meet these challenges. Around the world, coordinated action needs to be accompanied by fundamental shifts in our understanding and in our policy actions. Much more emphasis must be given to positioning agricultural growth as a way to improve diet quality, rather than merely delivering sufficient calories. Food systems need to be repositioned from just supplying food to providing high-quality diets for all. This will require policy initiatives far beyond agriculture to encompass trade, the environment and health, which harness the power of the private sector and empower consumers to demand better diets. This report is a call to action for world leaders and their governments. Leadership and commitment will be essential in driving forward the decisions set out in this report and in delivering the necessary priority actions to reshape the global food system

Scoping potential routes to UK civil unrest via the food system: results of a structured expert elicitation

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning

Multiple phenotypes conferred by a single insect symbiont are independent

Many microbial symbionts have multiple phenotypic consequences for their animal hosts. However, the ways in which different symbiont-mediated phenotypes combine to affect fitness are not well understood. We investigated whether there are correlations between different symbiont-mediated phenotypes. We used the symbiont Spiroplasma, a striking example of a bacterial symbiont conferring diverse phenotypes on insect hosts. We took 11 strains of Spiroplasma infecting pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) and assessed their ability to provide protection against the fungal pathogen Pandora neoaphidis and the parasitoids Aphidius ervi and Praon volucre. We also assessed effects on male offspring production for five of the Spiroplasma strains. All but one of the Spiroplasma strains provided very strong protection against the parasitoid P. volucre. As previously reported, variable protection against P. neoaphidis and A. ervi was also present; male-killing was likewise a variable phenotype. We find no evidence of any correlation, positive or negative, between the different phenotypes, nor was there any evidence of an effect of symbiont phylogeny on protective phenotype. We conclude that multiple symbiont-mediated phenotypes can evolve independently from one another without trade-offs between them