A multi-resolution and multivariate analysis of the dynamic relationships between crude oil and petroleum-product prices

This paper proposes the use of a novel multivariate, dynamic approach wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) (Fernández-Macho, 2018) to analyse the relationship between oil time series in the time-scale domain. This approach is suitable for use with energy data of any kind that change over time and involve heterogeneous agents who make decisions across different time horizons and operate on different time scales. The study of the links between multivariate oil time series is of great importance in energy research, e.g., it is extremely important for petroleum industry refiners and investors to know the relationships and margins between output prices and crude oil costs. The estimation of wavelet correlations in a multivariate framework between such prices is a suitable way to analyse crude oil and petroleum products as a system. To exemplify the use of WLMC, we analyse the relationships between the prices of seven commodities: West Texas Intermediate crude oil and six distilled products (conventional gasoline, regular gasoline, heating oil, diesel fuel, kerosene and propane) from 10/06/2006 to 17/01/2017. The results reveal that the wavelet correlations are strong throughout the period studied and there is a strong decay in correlation values from 2013 to 2015. The most plausible explanation for this decay is overproduction of tight oil in the U.S. and a slowdown in global demand for oil. Furthermore, our results also reveal that heating oil, diesel and kerosene maximise the multiple correlation with respect to the other oil variables on different scales, indicating that these products are the most dependent variables in the crude-product/price system. WLMC offers new opportunities for applications in energy research and other fields. © 2018 Elsevier Lt

Dynamic wavelet correlation analysis for multivariate climate time series

The wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) is introduced for the first time in the study of climate dynamics inferred from multivariate climate time series. To exemplify the use of WLMC with real climate data, we analyse Last Millennium (LM) relationships among several large‑scale reconstructed climate variables characterizing North Atlantic: i.e. sea surface temperatures (SST) from the tropical cyclone main developmental region (MDR), the El Niño‑Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and tropical cyclone counts (TC). We examine the former three large‑scale variables because they are known to influence North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and because their underlying drivers are still under investigation. WLMC results obtained for these multivariate climate time series suggest that: (1) MDRSST and AMO show the highest correlation with each other and with respect to the TC record over the last millennium, and: (2) MDRSST is the dominant climate variable that explains TC temporal variability. WLMC results confirm that this method is able to capture the most fundamental information contained in multivariate climate time series and is suitable to investigate correlation among climate time series in a multivariate contextJ.M.P.M was funded by the PIC 444/18 – EU Interreg project MOSES (EAPA 224/2016), FEDER funds and the SEPE (Spanish Public Service of Employment). J.F.M. acknowledges research funding received from UPV/EHU Econometrics Research Group (Basque Government Dpt. of Education grant IT-1359-19) and Spanish Ministry of Economy and Business (grant MTM2016-74931-P)

A pre-crisis vs. crisis analysis of peripheral EU stock markets by means of wavelet transform and a nonlinear causality test

This paper presents an analysis of EU peripheral (so-called PIIGS) stock market indices and the SandP Europe 350 index (SPEURO), as a European benchmark market, over the pre-crisis (2004 2007) and crisis (2008 2011) periods. We computed a rolling-window wavelet correlation for the market returns and applied a non-linear Granger causality test to the wavelet decomposition coefficients of these stock market returns. Our results show that the correlation is stronger for the crisis than for the pre-crisis period. The stock market indices from Portugal, Italy and Spain were more interconnected among themselves during the crisis than with the SPEURO. The stock market from Portugal is the most sensitive and vulnerable PIIGS member, whereas the stock market from Greece tends to move away from the European benchmark market since the 2008 financial crisis till 2011. The non-linear causality test indicates that in the first three wavelet scales (intraweek, weekly and fortnightly) the number of uni-directional and bi-directional causalities is greater during the crisis than in the pre-crisis period, because of financial contagion. Furthermore, the causality analysis shows that the direction of the Granger cause effect for the pre-crisis and crisis periods is not invariant in the considered time-scales, and that the causality directions among the studied stock markets do not seem to have a preferential direction. These results are relevant to better understand the behaviour of vulnerable stock markets, especially for investors and policymakers. © 2017 Elsevier B.V

Headache as a COVID-19 onset symptom and post-COVID-19 symptom in hospitalized COVID-19 survivors infected with the Wuhan, Alpha, or Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants

OBJECTIVE: This study looked at differences in the presence of headache as an onset symptom of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) and as a post‐COVID‐19 symptom in individuals previously hospitalized owing to infection with the Wuhan, Alpha, or Delta variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). BACKGROUND: Headache can be present in up to 50% of individuals during the acute phase of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection and in 10% of subjects during the post‐COVID‐19 phase. There are no data on differences in the occurrence of headache in the acute‐ and post‐COVID‐19 phase according to the SARS‐CoV‐2 variants. METHODS: A cross‐sectional cohort study was conducted. Unvaccinated subjects previously hospitalized for COVID‐19 caused by the Wuhan (n = 201), Alpha (n = 211), or Delta (n = 202) SARS‐CoV‐2 variants were scheduled for a telephone interview 6 months after hospital discharge. Hospitalization data were collected from hospital medical records. RESULTS: The presence of headache as a COVID‐19 onset symptom at hospitalization was higher in subjects with the Delta variant (66/202, 32.7%) than in those infected with the Wuhan (42/201, 20.9%; odds ratio [OR] 1.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17–2.88) or Alpha (25/211, 11.8%; OR 3.61, 95% CI, 2.16–6.01) variants. The prevalence of post‐COVID‐19 headache 6 months after hospital discharge was higher in individuals infected with the Delta variant (26/202, 12.9%) than in those infected with the Wuhan (11/201, 5.5%; OR 2.52, 95% CI 1.22–5.31) or Alpha (eight of 211, 3.8%; OR 3.74, 95% CI 1.65–8.49) variants. The presence of headache as a COVID‐19 onset symptom was associated with post‐COVID‐19 headache in subjects infected with the Wuhan (OR 7.75, 95% CI 2.15–27.93) and Delta variants (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.20–6.42) but not with the Alpha variant (OR 2.60, 95% CI 0.49–13.69). CONCLUSION: Headache was a common symptom in both the acute‐ and post‐COVID‐19 phase in subjects infected with the Wuhan, Alpha, and Delta variants but mostly in those infected with the Delta variant

Associated-Onset Symptoms and Post-COVID-19 Symptoms in Hospitalized COVID-19 Survivors Infected with Wuhan, Alpha or Delta SARS-CoV-2 Variant

This study compared associated-symptoms at the acute phase of infection and post-COVID-19 symptoms between individuals hospitalized with the Wuhan, Alpha or Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Non-vaccinated individuals hospitalized because of SARS-CoV-2 infection in one hospital during three different waves of the pandemic (Wuhan, Alpha or Delta) were scheduled for a telephone interview. The presence of post-COVID-19 symptoms was systematically assessed. Hospitalization and clinical data were collected from medical records. A total of 201 patients infected with the Wuhan variant, 211 with the Alpha variant and 202 with Delta variant were assessed six months after hospitalization. Patients infected with the Wuhan variant had a greater number of symptoms at hospital admission (higher prevalence of fever, dyspnea or gastrointestinal problems) than those infected with Alpha or Delta variant (p < 0.01). A greater proportion of patients infected with the Delta variant reported headache, anosmia or ageusia as onset symptoms (p < 0.01). The mean number of post-COVID-19 symptoms was higher (p < 0.001) in individuals infected with the Wuhan variant (mean: 2.7 ± 1.3) than in those infected with the Alpha (mean: 1.8 ± 1.1) or Delta (mean: 2.1 ± 1.5) variant. Post-COVID-19 dyspnea was more prevalent (p < 0.001) in people infected with the Wuhan variant, whereas hair loss was higher in those infected with the Delta variant (p = 0.002). No differences in post-COVID-19 fatigue by SARS-CoV-2 variant were found (p = 0.594). Differences in COVID-19 associated onset symptoms and post-COVID-19 dyspnea were observed depending on the SARS-CoV-2 variant. The presence of fatigue was a common post-COVID-19 symptom to all SARS-CoV-2 variants

Prevalence of Musculoskeletal Post-COVID Pain in Hospitalized COVID-19 Survivors Depending on Infection with the Historical, Alpha or Delta SARS-CoV-2 Variant

We compared the prevalence of musculoskeletal post-COVID pain between previously hospitalized COVID-19 survivors infected with the historical, Alpha or Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Data about musculoskeletal post-COVID pain were systematically collected through a telephone interview involving 201 patients who had survived the historical variant, 211 who had survived the Alpha variant and 202 who had survived the Delta variant six months after hospital discharge. Participants were recruited from non-vaccinated individuals hospitalized due to SARS-CoV-2 infection in one hospital of Madrid (Spain) during three different waves of the pandemic (historical, Alpha or Delta variant). Hospitalization and clinical data were collected from hospital medical records. In addition, anxiety/depressive levels and sleep quality were also assessed. The prevalence of musculoskeletal post-COVID pain was higher (p = 0.003) in patients infected with the historical variant (47.7%) than in those infected with the Alpha (38.3%) or Delta (41%) variants. A significantly (p = 0.002) higher proportion of individuals infected with the historical variant reported generalized pain (20.5%) when compared with those infected with the other variants. The prevalence of new-onset post-COVID musculoskeletal pain reached 80.1%, 75.2% and 79.5% of patients infected with the historical, Alpha or Delta variants, respectively. No specific risk factors for developing post-COVID pain were identified depending on the SARS-CoV-2 variant. In conclusion, this study found that musculoskeletal post-COVID pain is highly prevalent in COVID-19 survivors six months after hospital discharge, with the highest prevalence and most generalized pain symptoms in individuals infected with the historical variant. Approximately 50% developed “de novo” post-COVID musculoskeletal pain symptoms

Fixed and drifting buoys around the national Spanish waters

Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) Marine Technical Conference, The Technical Conference (TECO) Toward an Integrated Met-ocean Monitoring, Forecasting and Services System, 25-29 October 2017, Geneva, SwitzerlandImproving the knowledge of the ocean and seas surrounding the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic and Canary islands is an objective of the Spanish oceanography. For that purpose, a number of fixed and drifting floats have been established in the last 25 years. Data buoys measure sea surface temperature and salinity, ocean current velocity, air temperature, humidity, wave characteristic and wind velocity across seas and ocean. The objective is increase the quantity, quality, coverage and timeliness of atmospheric and oceanographic data. These observations are used immediately to improve forecast and therefore increase marine safety. The main group of fixed buoys is formed by the Puertos del Estado deep and shallow buoy networks, but a series of well instrumented new platforms has been established in later times. The RAIA Project (Xunta de Galicia), PLOCAN, SOCIB, IEO, Euskalmet-AZTI, ICM and UTM (CSIC) and University and Polytechnic of Barcelona have completed the Observing System. Most of the buoys are transmitting data by GTS for using in atmospheric and ocean prediction models. Multidisciplinary sensors as Dissolved Oxygen, Fluorescence Chlorophyll or pCO2 has been mounted in the buoys and calibration/validation procedures has been developed for improve data quality. Antifouling systems recently developed have also been included and quality of the optical sensors measurements has improved. Drifting floats has increase its number and importance, from Argo floats to traditional deriving ones improving the Spanish contribution to IOC and WWO and JCOMM. Spain is member of EuroArgo ERIC. SOCIB and IEO are the main contributors. Also multidisciplinary work has been done associated to Argo buoys. BGQ ARGO incorporate O2 sensor. ICM, SMOS Barcelona Expert Center, and SOCIB are the main contributors to the drifting buoys group. Main objectives are improving Technological development as well as data management. Tropical and Southern Atlantic Ocean are the main studying areasPeer Reviewe

Coping with poachers in European stalked barnacle fisheries: Insights from a stakeholder workshop.

In January 2020, a stakeholder workshop was organized as a knowledge sharing strategy among European stalked barnacle fisheries. Management of this fishery differs greatly among regions and ranges from less organized and governed at large scales (>100 km, coasts of SW Portugal and Brittany in France) to highly participatory systems which are co-managed at small spatial scales (10′s km and less, Galicia and Asturias). Discussions revealed that poaching is ubiquitous, hard to eradicate, and adapts to all types of management. The stakeholders identified some key management initiatives in the fight against poaching: granting professional harvesters with exclusive access to the resource, increasing social capital among harvesters through tenure systems (e.g. Territorial Use Rights in Fisheries) that empower them as stewards of their resource and intensi- fication of surveillance with the active participation of the harvesters. Furthermore, increased cooperation be- tween fishers associations and regional fisheries authorities, improved legal frameworks, adoption of new technologies and the implementation of market-based solutions can also help coping with this systemic problem

Penumbral imaging and functional outcome in patients with anterior circulation ischaemic stroke treated with endovascular thrombectomy versus medical therapy: a meta-analysis of individual patient-level data

Background: CT perfusion (CTP) and diffusion or perfusion MRI might assist patient selection for endovascular thrombectomy. We aimed to establish whether imaging assessments of irreversibly injured ischaemic core and potentially salvageable penumbra volumes were associated with functional outcome and whether they interacted with the treatment effect of endovascular thrombectomy on functional outcome. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, the HERMES collaboration pooled patient-level data from all randomised controlled trials that compared endovascular thrombectomy (predominantly using stent retrievers) with standard medical therapy in patients with anterior circulation ischaemic stroke, published in PubMed from Jan 1, 2010, to May 31, 2017. The primary endpoint was functional outcome, assessed by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days after stroke. Ischaemic core was estimated, before treatment with either endovascular thrombectomy or standard medical therapy, by CTP as relative cerebral blood flow less than 30% of normal brain blood flow or by MRI as an apparent diffusion coefficient less than 620 μm2/s. Critically hypoperfused tissue was estimated as the volume of tissue with a CTP time to maximum longer than 6 s. Mismatch volume (ie, the estimated penumbral volume) was calculated as critically hypoperfused tissue volume minus ischaemic core volume. The association of ischaemic core and penumbral volumes with 90-day mRS score was analysed with multivariable logistic regression (functional independence, defined as mRS score 0–2) and ordinal logistic regression (functional improvement by at least one mRS category) in all patients and in a subset of those with more than 50% endovascular reperfusion, adjusted for baseline prognostic variables. The meta-analysis was prospectively designed by the HERMES executive committee, but not registered. Findings: We identified seven studies with 1764 patients, all of which were included in the meta-analysis. CTP was available and assessable for 591 (34%) patients and diffusion MRI for 309 (18%) patients. Functional independence was worse in patients who had CTP versus those who had diffusion MRI, after adjustment for ischaemic core volume (odds ratio [OR] 0·47 [95% CI 0·30–0·72], p=0·0007), so the imaging modalities were not pooled. Increasing ischaemic core volume was associated with reduced likelihood of functional independence (CTP OR 0·77 [0·69–0·86] per 10 mL, pinteraction=0·29; diffusion MRI OR 0·87 [0·81–0·94] per 10 mL, pinteraction=0·94). Mismatch volume, examined only in the CTP group because of the small numbers of patients who had perfusion MRI, was not associated with either functional independence or functional improvement. In patients with CTP with more than 50% endovascular reperfusion (n=186), age, ischaemic core volume, and imaging-to-reperfusion time were independently associated with functional improvement. Risk of bias between studies was generally low. Interpretation: Estimated ischaemic core volume was independently associated with functional independence and functional improvement but did not modify the treatment benefit of endovascular thrombectomy over standard medical therapy for improved functional outcome. Combining ischaemic core volume with age and expected imaging-to-reperfusion time will improve assessment of prognosis and might inform endovascular thrombectomy treatment decisions. Funding: Medtronic

A window to the sea: environmental indicators for coastal risk management under the RAIA observatory (NW-Iberian Peninsula)

ECSA 59 Using the best scientific knowledge for the sustainable management of estuaries and coastal seas, San Sebastian (Spain), 5th–8th September 2022The international RAIA Observatory (www.marnaraia.org) resulted from the effort of 12 research and academic institutions and public agencies (Spanish and Portuguese) working in the field of meteorology and oceanography. The RAIA Observatory serves the main maritime activities of the Galicia-Northern Portugal Euroregion and contributes to collaborative observational networks. Under the framework of coastal risk management, environmental indicators are fundamental tools for the evaluation and mitigation of environmental risks, showing the current state and helping to predict future changes on ecosystem health regarding environmental risks. In last years, the different partners of the RAIA Observatory have identified 38 environmental indicators, in which 12 key risks affecting the ecosystem services of the Galicia-Northern Portugal Euroregion are being evaluated. Data was analyzed and compiled by the various partners of the RAIA Observatory and the development and optimization of the environmental indicators has been done according to the specifications provided by the European Environmental Agency (EEA) and the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). The resulting environmental indicators are included and shared on a publicly-accessible Web service, georeferenced and accompanied by plots (https://marrisk.inesctec.pt/public/#!/indicators). So far, the current status of the indicators has allowed us to establish risk assessment protocols for the Euroregion, and identify critical gaps in a temporal and spatial coverage. The inclusion of the environmental indicators in the RAIA Observatory is of great relevance for national and international data exchange and promotes future collaborationsN