Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model

This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University (NDU). The Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at NDU has been testing the Senturion capability since 2002, and has begun to support the application of this new technology in DOD. In this paper, we begin by describing the methodology underlying the software, and then provide an overview of three case studies that used the software: a predictive analysis of the stabilization and reconstruction phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the run-up to the Iraqi elections in January 2005, and the leadership transition in Palestine following the death of Yasser Arafat. Each of these projects tested the application of the software’s modeling technology to unfolding events. Each analysis was performed and briefed to senior government decision makers well in advance of events; the forecasts from each project tracked well with reality, often providing counter intuitive results. The approach provides policymakers and analysts with a tool for anticipating the outcome of complex political events that can also provide a detailed explanation of why events may not unfold as expected with traditional means of analysis

Animal Viruses, Bacteria, and Cancer: A Brief Commentary

Animal viruses and bacteria are ubiquitous in the environment. However, little is known about their mode of transmission and etiologic role in human cancers, especially among high-risk groups (e.g., farmers, veterinarians, poultry plant workers, pet owners, and infants). Many factors may affect the survival, transmissibility, and carcinogenicity of these agents, depending on the animal-host environment, hygiene practices, climate, travel, herd immunity, and cultural differences in food consumption and preparation. Seasonal variations in immune function also may increase host susceptibility at certain times of the year. The lack of objective measures, inconsistent study designs, and sources of epidemiologic bias (e.g., residual confounding, recall bias, and non-randomized patient selection) are some of the factors that complicate a clear understanding of this subject

Residential Segregation and Overweight/Obesity Among African-American Adults: A Critical Review

The relationship between residential segregation and overweight/obesity among African-American adults remains unclear. Elucidating that relationship is relevant to efforts to prevent and to reduce racial disparities in obesity. This article provides a critical review of the 11 empirical studies of segregation and overweight/obesity among African-American adults. Results revealed that most studies did not use a valid measure of segregation, many did not use a valid measure of overweight/obesity, and many did not control for neighborhood poverty. Only four (36% of the) studies used valid measures of both segregation and overweight/obesity and also controlled for area-poverty. Those four studies suggest that segregation contributes to overweight and obesity among African-American adults, but that conclusion cannot be drawn with certainty in light of the considerable methodologic problems in this area of research. Suggestions for improving research on this topic are provided

Monoamine Oxidase is a Major Determinant of Redox Balance in Human Atrial Myocardium and is Associated With Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND: Onset of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common and costly complication of heart surgery despite major improvements in surgical technique and quality of patient care. The etiology of POAF, and the ability of clinicians to identify and therapeutically target high-risk patients, remains elusive. METHODS AND RESULTS: Myocardial tissue dissected from right atrial appendage (RAA) was obtained from 244 patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation from multiple sources was assessed in this tissue, along with total glutathione (GSHt) and its related enzymes GSH-peroxidase (GPx) and GSH-reductase (GR). Monoamine oxidase (MAO) and NADPH oxidase were observed to generate ROS at rates 10-fold greater than intact, coupled mitochondria. POAF risk was significantly associated with MAO activity (Quartile 1 [Q1]: adjusted relative risk [ARR]=1.0; Q2: ARR=1.8, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.84 to 4.0; Q3: ARR=2.1, 95% CI=0.99 to 4.3; Q4: ARR=3.8, 95% CI=1.9 to 7.5; adjusted Ptrend=0.009). In contrast, myocardial GSHt was inversely associated with POAF (Quartile 1 [Q1]: adjusted relative risk [ARR]=1.0; Q2: ARR=0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.60 to 1.4; Q3: ARR=0.62, 95% CI=0.36 to 1.1; Q4: ARR=0.56, 95% CI=0.34 to 0.93; adjusted Ptrend=0.014). GPx also was significantly associated with POAF; however, a linear trend for risk was not observed across increasing levels of the enzyme. GR was not associated with POAF risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that MAO is an important determinant of redox balance in human atrial myocardium, and that this enzyme, in addition to GSHt and GPx, is associated with an increased risk for POAF. Further investigation is needed to validate MAO as a predictive biomarker for POAF, and to explore this enzyme's potential role in arrhythmogenesis

Low-smoke chulha in Indian slums: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Biomass fuel is used as a primary cooking source by more than half of the world’s population, contributing to a high burden of disease. Although cleaner fuels are available, some households continue using solid fuels because of financial constraints and absence of infrastructure, especially in non-notified slums. The present study documents a randomised controlled study investigating the efficacy of improved cookstove on the personal exposure to air pollution and the respiratory health of women and children in an Indian slum. The improved cookstove was based on co-creation of a low-smoke chulha with local communities in order to support adaption and sustained uptake. Methods The study will be conducted in a non-notified slum called Ashrayanagar in Bangalore, India. The study design will be a 1:1 randomised controlled intervention trial, including 250 households. The intervention group will receive an improved cookstove (low-smoke chulha) and the control group will continue using either the traditional cookstove (chulha) or a combination of the traditional stove and the kerosene/diesel stove. Follow-up time is 1 year. Outcomes include change in lung function (FEV1/FVC), incidence of pneumonia, change in personal PM2.5 and CO exposure, incidence of respiratory symptoms (cough, phlegm, wheeze and shortness of breath), prevalence of other related symptoms (headache and burning eyes), change in behaviour and adoption of the stove. Ethical clearance was obtained from the Institutional Ethics Committee of the Indian Institute of Public Health Hyderabad- Bengaluru Campus. Discussion The findings from this study aim to provide insight into the effects of improved cookstoves in urban slums. Results can give evidence for the decrease of indoor air pollution and the improvement of respiratory health for children and women. Trial registration The trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov on 21 June 2016 with the identifier NCT02821650; A Study to Test the Impact of an Improved Chulha on the Respiratory Health of Women and Children in Indian Slums

Nosocomial infection in a newborn intensive care unit (NICU), South Korea

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine the occurrence of nosocomial infections (NIs), including infection rates, main infection sites, and common microorganisms. Patients included in the study were taken from a newborn intensive care unit (NICU), in a hospital in South Korea. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed by reviewing chart. The subjects were 489 neonates who were admitted to the NICU, survived longer than 72 hours, and not transferred to another unit, between Jan. 1. 1995 to Sep. 30, 1999. NIs were identified according to the NNIS definition. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence rate for NIs was 30.3 neonates out of 100 admissions, with a total of 44.6 infections. The incidence density was average 10.2 neonates and 15.1 infections per 1000 patient days. The most common infections were pneumonia (28%), bloodstream infection (26%), and conjunctivitis (22%). Major pathogens were Gram-positives such as Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci. The factors associated with NI was less than 1500 g of birth weight, less than 32 weeks of gestational age, and less than 8 of apgar score. There's no statistical difference in discharge status between two groups, but hospital stay was longer in subjects with nosocomial infection than those without infection. CONCLUSION: Although the distribution of pathogens was similar to previous reports, a high rate of nosocomial infection and in particular conjunctivitis was observed in this study that merits further evaluation

Lifestyle factors and primary glioma and meningioma tumours in the Million Women Study cohort

Previous studies have reported inconsistent results on the effect of anthropometric and lifestyle factors on the risk of developing glioma or meningioma tumours. A prospective cohort of 1.3 million middle-aged women was used to examine these relationships. During 7.7 million women-years of follow-up, a total of 1563 women were diagnosed with a primary incident central nervous system tumour: 646 tumours were classified as glioma and 390 as meningioma. Our results show that height is related to the incidence of all central nervous system tumours with a risk of about 20% per 10 cm increase in height (relative risk=1.19, 95% CI=1.10–1.30 per 10 cm increase in height, P<0.001): the risks did not differ significantly between specified glioma and meningioma. Body mass index (BMI) was also related to central nervous system tumour incidence, with a risk of about 20% per 10 kg m−2 increase in BMI (relative risk=1.17, 95% CI=1.03–1.34 per 10 kg m−2 increase in BMI, P=0.02). Smoking status, alcohol intake, socioeconomic level, parity, age at first birth, and oral contraceptive use were not associated with the risk of glioma or meningioma tumours. In conclusion, for women in the United Kingdom, the incidence of glioma or meningioma tumours increases with increasing height and increasing BMI