Nonstationary conditional models for spatial data based on varying coefficients

The analysis of spatial data by means of Markov random fields usually is based on strict stationarity assumptions. Although these assumptions rarely hold, they are necessary in order to obtain parameter estimates. For Gaussian data the necessary assumptions are mean- and covariance stationarity. While simple techniques are available to deal with violations of mean stationarity, the same is not true for covariance stationarity. In order to handle mean nonstationarity as well as covariance nonstationarity, we propose the modelling by spatially varying coefficients. This aproach not only yields more appropriate models for nonstationary data but also can be used to detect violations of the stationarity assumptions. The method is illustrated by use of the well known wheat yield data

Nonstationary conditional models for spatial data based on varying coefficients

The analysis of spatial data by means of Markov random fields usually is based on strict stationarity assumptions. Although these assumptions rarely hold, they are necessary in order to obtain parameter estimates. For Gaussian data the necessary assumptions are mean- and covariance stationarity. While simple techniques are available to deal with violations of mean stationarity, the same is not true for covariance stationarity. In order to handle mean nonstationarity as well as covariance nonstationarity, we propose the modelling by spatially varying coefficients. This aproach not only yields more appropriate models for nonstationary data but also can be used to detect violations of the stationarity assumptions. The method is illustrated by use of the well known wheat yield data

Foodborne hepatitis A outbreak associated with bakery products in northern Germany, 2012

In October 2012, a hepatitis A (HA) outbreak with 83 laboratory-confirmed cases occurred in Lower Saxony. We defined primary outbreak cases as people with laboratory-confirmed HA and symptom onset between 8 October and 12 November 2012, residing in or visiting the affected districts. Secondary outbreak cases were persons with symptom onset after 12 November 2012 and close contact with primary cases. We identified 77 primary and six secondary cases. We enrolled 50 primary cases and 52 controls matched for age and sex, and found that 82% of cases and 60% of controls had consumed products from a particular bakery (OR=3.09; 95% CI: 1.15–8.68). Cases were more likely to have eaten sweet pastries (OR=5.74; 95% CI: 1.46–22.42). Viral isolates from five selected cases and three positively tested surfaces in the bakery had identical nucleotide sequences. One additional identical isolate derived from a salesperson of the bakery suffering from a chronic disease that required immunosuppressive treatment. Epidemiological and laboratory findings suggested that the salesperson contaminated products while packing and selling. Future risk assessment should determine whether food handlers with chronic diseases under immunosuppressive treatment could be more at risk of contaminating food and might benefit from HAV immunisation

Foodborne hepatitis A outbreak associated with bakery products in northern Germany, 2012

In October 2012, a hepatitis A (HA) outbreak with 83 laboratory-confirmed cases occurred in Lower Saxony. We defined primary outbreak cases as people with laboratory-confirmed HA and symptom onset between 8 October and 12 November 2012, residing in or visiting the affected districts. Secondary outbreak cases were persons with symptom onset after 12 November 2012 and close contact with primary cases. We identified 77 primary and six secondary cases. We enrolled 50 primary cases and 52 controls matched for age and sex, and found that 82% of cases and 60% of controls had consumed products from a particular bakery (OR=3.09; 95% CI: 1.15–8.68). Cases were more likely to have eaten sweet pastries (OR=5.74; 95% CI: 1.46–22.42). Viral isolates from five selected cases and three positively tested surfaces in the bakery had identical nucleotide sequences. One additional identical isolate derived from a salesperson of the bakery suffering from a chronic disease that required immunosuppressive treatment. Epidemiological and laboratory findings suggested that the salesperson contaminated products while packing and selling. Future risk assessment should determine whether food handlers with chronic diseases under immunosuppressive treatment could be more at risk of contaminating food and might benefit from HAV immunisation