The Development of Islamist Insurgency: Egypt, 1986-1999

Research project funded in academic year 2008-09The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.From 1986 to 1999, Egypt experienced a wave of Islamist violence as 474 attacks killed and injured over 2,000 people. Perhaps most notable was the 1997 attack in Luxor in which 10 German tourists were killed. The Egyptian government responded to the violence with a campaign of repression through arrests, trials, and executions. By 1999 the violence had dissipated, though some insurgents went on to form the core of al-Qaida. What explains the rise and decline of the Islamist insurgency? Jenkins set out to answer this question by examining the pattern of attacks against four variables.Mershon Center for International Security StudiesProject summar

Dissent Repression Nexus in the Middle East 2006

The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.The Middle East is often said to be caught in a never-ending spiral of dissent and repression influencing almost all aspects of existence. This “dissent/repression nexus” is critical because the Middle East sits at the crossroads of three continents, contains vast reserves of natural resources, and its conflicts have spilled into other parts of the globe.University of KansasTrinity University (San Antonio, Tex.)University of MarylandResearch project for Fiscal Year 2005-0

The Ecology of Terrorist Organizations

Research project funded in academic years 2007-08 and 2008-09The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.How do terrorist organizations act as agents of change? Since Sept. 11 there has been enormous interest in terrorist groups. Large amounts of data have been collected about the terrorists and their attacks. However systematic, empirical data on terrorist organizations, along with data on political groups that choose not to use terrorism, have never been collected and analyzed. Edward Crenshaw and J. Craig Jenkins, along with a multidisciplinary team, will examine data collected by the Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROB) project at University of Maryland's Center for International Development and Conflict Management. These data will be analyzed to study the birth and death of terrorist organizations as part of a larger social ecology.Mershon Center for International Security Studie

Dissent Repression Nexus in the Middle East 2006

The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.The Middle East is often said to be caught in a never-ending spiral of dissent and repression influencing almost all aspects of existence. This “dissent/repression nexus” is critical because the Middle East sits at the crossroads of three continents, contains vast reserves of natural resources, and its conflicts have spilled into other parts of the globe.University of KansasTrinity University (San Antonio, Tex.)University of MarylandResearch project for Fiscal Year 2005-0

The Etiology of Terror

The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.The project initiates a research program to sort out the various explanations of international terrorism by creating a cross-national analysis of national participation in international terrorism from 1990-2001.Mershon Center for International Security Studiesproject summar

Issues in Quantitative Modelling in the Early Warning of Refugee Migration

This article discusses the problems associated with indicator analysis for the purpose of early warning. While the authors endorse the idea of quantitative EWM, they are sceptical of the understanding that many have of what EW analysis entails. In this article, they identify the limits of quantitative EW analysis and address many of the major problems that confront those who are committed to quantitative EW analysis. In particular, the authors discuss the following issues that need to be addressed when engaging in quantitative early warning analysis: the problem of "late warning;" problems of contextual sensitivity; problems of temporal development; data availability and measurement; and problems with the definition of the appropriate unit of analysis.Cet article traite des problèmes rattachés à l'utilisation d'indicateurs en matière d'alerte préventive. Tout en faisant état de la pertinence de l'élaboration de modèle quantitatifs, les auteurs émettent des doutes à propos des conclusions obtenues à partir de ces analyses. Les limites de ces modèles et les principaux obstacles rencontrés dans la conduite de ces analyses sont identifiés. Les problèmes rattachés à une alerte lancée en retard, au caractère évolutif des situations conflictuelles, à la disponibilité et à l'évaluation de l'information, à la définition et au choix de la méthode d'analyse appropriée ainsi qu'à l'article et à la susceptibilité des parties impliquées sont évoqués de manière particulière