Jenkins, J. Craig

Khittel, Stefan

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Global Conflict Assessment: Evaluating Frameworks, Methods and Disseminationhttps://mershoncenter.osu.edu/index.php/research/2011-2012/global-conflict-assessment-evaluating-frameworks-methods-and-dissemination[7/25/2019 3:59:21 PM]Help BuckeyeLink Map Find People Webmail  You are here:   Home  Research  2011-2012  Global Conflict Assessment: Evaluating Frameworks, Methods and DisseminationGLOBAL CONFLICT ASSESSMENT: EVALUATING FRAMEWORKS, METHODS ANDDISSEMINATIONPrincipal Investigators: J. Craig Jenkins, Director, Mershon Center forInternational Security Studies and Stefan Khittel, Visiting ScholarIn recent years, government agencies, think tanks, private companies, and non-governmental organizations have launched a series of global conflictassessment programs, or CAPs. These CAPS are used to track events leadingup to global conflicts such as civil wars, violent regime change, civilianmassacres, organized insurgency, or terrorist attacks.By monitoring conflicts, CAPs are supposed to provide warnings of globalcrises before they happen. Yet despite their proliferation, no one has assessedhow well they work.In this project, J. Craig Jenkins and Stephan Khittel are taking on such anassessment by building a systematic framework for cataloguing, comparing andevaluating global CAPs.They will examine the following features of CAPs:Program focus. What are the program goals? Examples include humanrights, peace-building, crisis management, development, or privateinvestment?.Time horizon. Are they concerned with crises that might happen in thenext few months, or are they looking at the next three to five years ordecade?Type of conflict. What is the main concern? Examples include insurgency, terrorism, civil war, regime change, andgenocide.Driving factors. What are the relevant predictors for the events tracked?Methodology. What methods are used to forecast conflicts and crises? Examples include qualitative, quantitative, ormixed, as well as other methods such as simulations and counterfactuals.Level of accuracy and precision. While a 60 to 70 percent accuracy rate is acceptable for social sciences, is that enoughfor policy decisions?Method of dissemination. Is the audience specific decision makers, private groups, or the general public? While greateropenness and exchange are needed to improve these systems, previous research shows that private systems are betterresourced.Link to actionable items. How does conflict assessment lead to action? Who decides when action is taken, and can theoutcomes be reviewed?A grant from the Mershon Center allowed Khittel to spend a month at Ohio State working with Jenkins to track down global CAPs,identify their relevant features, and interview CAPs personnel. They plan to produce both academic and general interest articleson this project.  2016-20172015-20162014-20152013-20142012-20132011-20122010-20112009-20102008-20092007-20082006-2007MERSHON CENTER ARTS AND SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS RESOURCES ABOUT US RESEARCH NEWS EVENTS GRANTS PEOPLE PUBLICATIONS CONTACTGlobal Conflict Assessment: Evaluating Frameworks, Methods and Disseminationhttps://mershoncenter.osu.edu/index.php/research/2011-2012/global-conflict-assessment-evaluating-frameworks-methods-and-dissemination[7/25/2019 3:59:21 PM]About UsResearchNewsEventsGrantsPeoplePublicationsContactCollege of Arts and SciencesAcademicsAbout the CollegeNews and EventsResearchArts and CultureAlumniOffice of International AffairsCenter for African StudiesCenter for Latin American StudiesCenter for Slavic & East EuropeanStudiesEast Asian Studies CenterInstitute for Chinese StudiesInstitute for Japanese StudiesInstitute for Korean StudiesMiddle East Studies CenterEvents CalendarE-NewslettersAnnual ReportsFact SheetExperts ListFaculty BooksFurniss AwardKnowledge Bank © 2013 Mershon Center for International Security Studies – College of Arts and Sciences1501 Neil Ave., Columbus, OH 43201Phone: 614-292-1681 | Fax: 614-292-2407Request an alternate format of this page.   

Global Conflict Assessment: Evaluating Frameworks, Methods and Dissemination

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Global Conflict Assessment: Evaluating Frameworks, Methods and Dissemination

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