Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion

The expansion of Antarctic sea ice since 1979 in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases remains one of the most puzzling features of current climate change. Some studies have proposed that the formation of the ozone hole, via the Southern Annular Mode, might explain that expansion, and a recent study highlighted a robust causal link between summertime Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies and sea ice anomalies in the subsequent autumn. Here we show that many models are able to capture this relationship between the SAM and sea ice, but also emphasize that the SAM only explains a small fraction of the year-to-year variability. Finally, examining multidecadal trends, in models and observations, we confirm the findings of several previous studies and conclude that the SAM – and thus the ozone hole – are not the primary drivers of the sea ice expansion around Antarctica in recent decades

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical–extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models

[Epidemiological findings in the study of congenital malformations]

Experience with thalidomide and German measles contracted during pregnancy has focused attention on the question of birth defects. It is suggested that good reasons exist for the carrying out epidemiological investigations to establish the true incidence and geographical and social distribution of such deformities, and hence their possibly "environmental" origin at least in some instances. Such investigations would supplement research into experimental teratology. The advantages, disadvantages and limitations of retrospective and prospective investigations are discussed. A detailed account is given of a prospective survey in progress in Israel. Reference is also made to a similar survey being launched in some Italian cities with the aid of the NRC (Italian: CNR)