Emulation of multivariate simulators using thin-plate splines with application to atmospheric dispersion

It is often desirable to build a statistical emulator of a complex computer simulator in order to perform analysis which would otherwise be computationally infeasible. We propose methodology to model multivariate output from a computer simulator taking into account output structure in the responses. The utility of this approach is demonstrated by applying it to a chemical and biological hazard prediction model. Predicting the hazard area which results from an accidental or deliberate chemical or biological release is imperative in civil and military planning and also in emergency response. The hazard area resulting from such a release is highly structured in space and we therefore propose the use of a thin-plate spline to capture the spatial structure and fit a Gaussian process emulator to the coefficients of the resultant basis functions. We compare and contrast four different techniques for emulating multivariate output: dimension-reduction using (i) a fully Bayesian approach with a principal component basis, (ii) a fully Bayesian approach with a thin-plate spline basis, assuming that the basis coefficients are independent, and (iii) a “plug-in” Bayesian approach with a thin-plate spline basis and a separable covariance structure; and (iv) a functional data modeling approach using a tensor-product (separable) Gaussian process. We develop methodology for the two thin-plate spline emulators and demonstrate that these emulators significantly outperform the principal component emulator. Further, the separable thin-plate spline emulator, which accounts for the dependence between basis coefficients, provides substantially more realistic quantification of uncertainty, and is also computationally more tractable, allowing fast emulation. For high resolution output data, it also offers substantial predictive and computational ad- vantages over the tensor-product Gaussian process emulator

Transonic wind-tunnel tests of an F-8 airplane model equipped with 12 and 14-percent thick oblique wings

An experimental investigation was conducted in the Ames 14-foot transonic wind tunnel to study the aerodynamic performance and stability characteristics of a 0.087-scale model of an F-8 airplane fitted with an oblique wing. Two elliptical planform (axis ratio = 8:1) wings, each having a maximum thickness of 12 and 14 percent, were tested. Longitudinal stability data were obtained with no wing and with each of the two wings set at sweep angles of 0, 45, and 60 deg. Lateral directional stability data were obtained for the 12 percent wing only. Test Mach numbers ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 in the unit Reynolds number range from 11.2 to 13.1 million per meter. Angles of attack were between -6 and 22 deg at zero sideslip. Angles of sideslip were between -6 and +6 deg for two angles of attack, depending upon the wing configuration

Comparison of reacting and non-reacting shear layers at a high subsonic Mach number

The flow field in a hydrogen-fueled planar reacting shear layer was measured with an LDV system and is compared with a similar air to air case without combustion. Measurements were made with a speed ratio of 0.34 with the highspeed stream at Mach 0.71. They show that the shear layer with reaction grows faster than one without, and both cases are within the range of data scatter presented by the established database. The coupling between the streamwise and the cross-stream turbulence components inside the shear layer is slow, and reaction only increased it slightly. However, a more organized pattern of the Reynolds stress is present in the reacting shear layer, possibly as a result of larger scale structure formation in the layer associated with heat release

Turbulence measurement in a reacting and non-reacting shear layer at a high subsonic Mach number

The results of two component velocity and turbulence measurements are presented which were obtained on a planar reacting shear layer burning hydrogen. Quantitative LDV and temperature measurements are presented with and without chemical reaction within the shear layer at a velocity ratio of 0.34 and a high speed Mach number of 0.7. The comparison showed that the reacting shear layer grew faster than that without reaction. Using a reduced width coordinate, the reacting and non-reacting profiles were very similar. The peak turbulence for both cases was 20 percent

Tolerable versus actual soil erosion rates in Europe

Erosion is a major threat to soil resources in Europe, and may impair their ability to deliver a range of ecosystem goods and services. This is reflected by the European Commission's Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection, which recommends an indicator-based approach for monitoring soil erosion. Defined baseline and threshold values are essential for the evaluation of soil monitoring data. Therefore, accurate spatial data on both soil loss and soil genesis are required, especially in the light of predicted changes in climate patterns, notably frequency, seasonal distribution and intensity of precipitation. Rates of soil loss are reported that have been measured, modelled or inferred for most types of soil erosion in a variety of landscapes, by studies across the spectrum of the Earth sciences. Natural rates of soil formation can be used as a basis for setting tolerable soil erosion rates, with soil formation consisting of mineral weathering as well as dust deposition. This paper reviews the concept of tolerable soil erosion and summarises current knowledge on rates of soil formation, which are then compared to rates of soil erosion by known erosion types, for assessment of soil erosion monitoring at the European scale

Foot and Mouth Epidemic Reduces Cases of Human Cryptosporidiosis in Scotland.

In Scotland, rates of cryptosporidiosis infection in humans peak during the spring, a peak that is coincident with the peak in rates of infection in farm animals (during lambing and calving time). Here we show that, during the outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in 2001, there was a significant reduction in human cases of cryptosporidiosis infection in southern Scotland, where FMD was present, whereas, in the rest of Scotland, there was a reduction in cases that was not significant. We associate the reduction in human cases of cryptosporidiosis infection with the reduction in the number of young farm animals, together with restrictions on movement of both farm animals and humans, during the outbreak of FMD in 2001. We further show that, during 2002, there was recovery in the rate of cryptosporidiosis infection in humans throughout Scotland, particularly in the FMD-infected area, but that rates of infection remained lower, though not significantly, than pre-2001 levels

Lipopolysaccharide and toll-like receptor 4 in dogs with congenital portosystemic shunts

Surgical attenuation of a congenital portosystemic shunt (CPSS) results in increased portal vein perfusion, liver growth and clinical improvement. Portal lipopolysaccharide (LPS) is implicated in liver regeneration via toll-like receptor (TLR) 4 mediated cytokine activation. The aim of this study was to investigate factors associated with LPS in dogs with CPSS. Plasma LPS concentrations were measured in the peripheral and portal blood using a limulus amoebocyte lysate (LAL) assay. LPS concentration was significantly greater in the portal blood compared to peripheral blood in dogs with CPSS (P = 0.046) and control dogs (P = 0.002). LPS concentrations in the peripheral (P = 0.012) and portal (P = 0.005) blood of dogs with CPSS were significantly greater than those of control dogs. The relative mRNA expression of cytokines and TLRs was measured in liver biopsies from dogs with CPSS using quantitative PCR. TLR4 expression significantly increased following partial CPSS attenuation (P = 0.020). TLR4 expression was significantly greater in dogs that tolerated complete CPSS attenuation (P = 0.011) and those with good portal blood flow on pre-attenuation (P = 0.004) and post-attenuation (P = 0.015) portovenography. Serum interleukin (IL)-6 concentration was measured using a canine specific ELISA and significantly increased 24 h following CPSS attenuation (P < 0.001). Portal LPS was increased in dogs with CPSS, consistent with decreased hepatic clearance. TLR4 mRNA expression was significantly associated with portal blood flow and increased following surgery. These findings support the concept that portal LPS delivery is important in the hepatic response to surgical attenuation. Serum IL-6 significantly increased following surgery, consistent with LPS stimulation via TLR4, although this increase might be non-specific