Complex Dynamics of Macroeconomic Collapse and Its Aftermath in Transition Economies

The economic transition from planned command socialism to market capitalism has been unpredictable and complicated with a variety of divergent paths and outcomes emerging from the breakup and collapse of the former Soviet-led Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) bloc. Although social, political, and cultural factors played important roles in the actual collapse, an underlying factor was increasing economic stagnation, especially in the USSR. This led to reform efforts that led to actual economic decline, the breakup of the bloc, and systemic collapse [Rosser and Rosser, 199Va]. The unexpected and dramatically sudden nature of this collapse led Sargent [1993] to doubt the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper we seek to partially explicate the varieties of these episodes of discontinuity and turbulence by considering some forms of complex nonlinear dynamics as applied to the stages of the systemic transition process.Macroeconomics; Transitional Economies

Live and Dead Issues in the Methodology of Economics

We attempt to clarify divisions made by us in previous work (Colander et al., 2004a,b) between “orthodox, mainstream, and heterodox” in economics, following very useful remarks in Dequech (2007), whom we thank. We also provide specific advice for heterodox economists, namely: worry less about methodology, focus on being economists first and heterodox economists second, and prepare ideas to leave the incubator of heterodoxy to enter the mainstream economic debate.

Islamic and Neo-Confucian Perspectives on the New Traditional Economy

This paper argues that the new traditional economy is an emerging form important both ideologically and in practice in the world economy today. It is characterized by an effort to embed economic practices within a traditional socio-religious structure while simultaneously seeking modern technology and high incomes. The examples of the Islamic economic system and the neo-Confucian economic system are considered in more detail, with the former seen as more significant ideologically and the latter as more important practically.Economic Systems

Financialization and Speculative Bubbles – International Evidence

This paper tests the possible presence of nonlinear speculative bubbles in 23 international markets using daily data from January 1993-March 2015, and its possible link to the financialization phenomenon. To estimate fundamental values, we estimate VAR. Residuals from these VAR are tested for significant movements away from the fundamentals using Hamilton regime switching and Hurst rescaled range tests. We also test the data for nonlinearities using BDS statistics. Our results indicate the presence of speculative bubbles in all 23 of these markets with increasing incidence over time, which suggest a linkage with the phenomenon of financialization in these economies

On the complexities of complex economic dynamics

. His email address is <[email protected]>. Abstract: Complex economic nonlinear dynamics endogenously do not converge to a point, a limit cycle, or an explosion. Their study developed out of earlier studies of cybernetic, catastrophic, and chaotic systems. Complexity analysis stresses interactions among dispersed agents without a global controller, tangled hierarchies, adaptive learning, evolution, and novelty, and out-ofequilibrium dynamics. Complexity methods include interacting particle systems, self-organized criticality, and evolutionary game theory, to simulate artificial stock markets and other phenomena. Theoretically, bounded rationality replaces rational expectations. Complexity theory influences empirical methods and restructures policy debates

Non-linear Speculative Bubbles in the Pakistani Stock Market

Since 1987 many stock markets of the world have experienced volatility. This has been true of many emerging stock markets. Our study of daily stock market data from Pakistan between June 1987 and May 1993 finds the results to be consistent with the impression of great volatility and unpredictability thought to be common in such emerging markets. We used the VAR technique to estimate a "presumed" fundamental on stock indices using lagged first differences of natural logs of daily exchange rates and stock indices. We used the Hamilton switching model and associated Walk test to see if such speculative trends were present. We were significantly unable to rule them out. We then tested for ARCH effects, whose presence we failed to reject. We then used ARCHgenerated residuals to apply the BDS test of general non-linear structure. We failed to reject the lack of such non-linear structure quite significantly. Thus, the Pakistani stock market during the period of study seems to have exhibited quite complex dynamics, along with apparently strong trends that may indicate the presence of speculative bubbles. This has many important implications for Pakistani as well as other emerging markets.

Neglected Prophets: Paul Davidson: The Truest Keynesian?

Paul Davidson is one the best known and influential Post Keynesian economists alive today. He has insisted throughout his career that economists should focus on real world problems and that the purpose of economic policy is to help society become more humane and civilized. He is also known for his insistence on adhering to the words and ideas of John Maynard Keynes. This article reviews his contributions to monetary theory, international economics, aggregate supply theory, and environmental economics.Post Keynesian; Supply; Keynes

"Paul Davidson's Economics"

Paul Davidson is one of the best known and most influential Post Keynesian economists. He has insisted throughout his career that economists should focus on real world problems and that the purpose of economic policy is to help society become more humane and civilized. He is also known for his insistence on adhering to the words and ideas of John Maynard Keynes. This article reviews his contributions to monetary theory, international economics, aggregate supply theory, and environmental economics.

William Vickrey's Legacy: Innovative Policies for Social Concerns

William Vickrey, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1996, was a moral and brilliant man. His major contributions to economics came from his desire to advance ways to decrease waste through creative pricing. The economic areas where he had the most impact are congestion pricing, tax reform and auctions. At the end of his life the unemployment issue dominated his research. Vickrey saw macroeconomics turning increasingly from full employment to stable prices as the dominant policy goal. Vickrey was deeply concerned that economists and politicians believed that price stability was a more laudable goal than full employment.Economics; Morals