CEU Preferences and Dynamic Consistency

This paper investigates the dynamic consistency of CEU preferences. A decision maker is faced with an information structure represented by a fixed filtration. If beliefs are represented by a convex capacity, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for dynamic consistency is that beliefs be additive over the final stage in the filtration.

Choice under Uncertainty with the Best and Worst in Mind: Neo-additive Capacities.

The concept of a non-extreme-outcome-additive capacity (neo-additive capacity ) is introduced. Neo-additive capacities model optimistic and pessimistic attitudes towards uncer-tainty as observed in many experimental studies. Moreover, neo-additive capacities can be applied easily in economic problems, as we demonstrate by examples. This paper provides an axiomatisation of Choquet expected utility with neo-capacities in a framework of purely subjective uncertainty.

Krisenwirkungen auf die Finanzverflechtungen im Euroraum

Vor dem Jahr 2008 kam es auf den Finanzmärkten des Euroraums zu einem Integrationsboom, der auch durch die gemeinsame Währung bedingt war. Die zunehmende finanzielle Verflechtung wurde teils durch die globale Finanzkrise, teils durch die Staatsschuldenkrise in Europa gestoppt und partiell wieder rückgängig gemacht. Dies wird aus der Betrachtung der Zahlungsbilanzen der Eurostaaten ersichtlich. Ferner kam es im Zuge eines Rückzugs ausländischer Investoren aus Staatsanleihen vieler Eurostaaten auch zu einer teilweisen Desintegration des Finanzmarktes. Diese wurde in erster Linie getrieben von der Staatsschuldenkrise in Ländern des Euroraums und konzentriert sich auf Griechenland, Italien, Irland und Spanien. Darüber hinaus fand vor allem bei den Bankenverflechtungen innerhalb des Euroraums seit dem Jahr 2008 eine flächendeckende Desintegration statt, bei der Forderungen gegenüber dem Ausland massiv abgebaut wurden. Der Grad der finanziellen Integration ist jedoch nach wie vor höher als 1999

Imprints of the QCD Phase Transition on the Spectrum of Gravitational Waves

We have investigated effects of the QCD phase transition on the relic GW spectrum applying several equations of state for the strongly interacting matter: Besides the bag model, which describes a first order transition, we use recent data from lattice calculations featuring a crossover. Finally, we include a short period of inflation during the transition which allows for a first order phase transition at finite baryon density. Our results show that the QCD transition imprints a step into the spectrum of GWs. Within the first two scenarios, entropy conservation leads to a step-size determined by the relativistic degrees of freedom before and after the transition. The inflation of the third scenario much stronger attenuates the high-frequency modes: An inflationary model being consistent with observation entails suppression of the spectral energy density by a factor of ~10^(-12).Comment: 11 pages, 13 figure

Untersuchung der Auswirkungen von ökologisch erzeugten Biogasgärresten auf Bodenqualität – Ein Methodeneignungstest

Biogas digestate is a by-product of the biogas process and contains high amounts of nitrogen, which makes it a valuable organic fertiliser. In a field trial near Freising, different crop rotations for biogas production were established in 2004/05 and fertilised with digestate only or were not fertilised (controls). A wide range of methods for soil analysis was used between 2013 and 2015 to identify the methods capable of showing a biogas digestate effect on soil quality. We learned that aggregate stability, C and N contents, and the number of earthworms showed significant differences between fertilised and unfertilised plots, while pH, water infiltration, bulk density and pore size distribution were not able to show biogas effects

Maiserträge und Humusbilanzen in ökologischen Energiepflanzen-Fruchtfolgen mit Gärrestdüngung

The long-term effects of biogas production in organic farming on soil fertility due to changes in crop rotations and the removal of carbon from these systems are, at present, unclear. Data from a long-term field trial in Bavaria, Germany were used to evaluate the effects of different crop rotations and fertilization with biogas digestate on maize yields and humus balances. Digestate fertilization led to higher maize yields compared with an unfertilized control. Maize yields were lower when the maize was sown directly into a white clover cover crop. Humus balances show the importance of considering both the return of organic matter via fertilization and crop rotation design to ensure that soil fertility is not deplete

When is ambiguity-attitude constant?

Pre-print version. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-012-9153-5This paper studies how updating affects ambiguity attitude. In particular we focus on generalized Bayesian updating of the Jaffray-Philippe sub-class of Choquet Expected Utility preferences. We find conditions for ambiguity attitude to be the same before and after updating. A necessary and sufficient condition for ambiguity attitude to be unchanged when updated on an arbitrary event is for the capacity to be neo-additive. We find a condition for updating on a given partition to preserve ambiguity attitude. We relate this to necessary and sufficient conditions for dynamic consistency. Finally, we study whether ambiguity increases or decreases after updating.Research supported in part by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship