Modelling dependence of extreme events in energy markets using tail copulas

This paper studies, for the first time, the dependence of extreme events in energy markets. Based on a large data set comprising quotes of crude oil and natural gas futures, we estimate and model large co-movements of commodity returns. To detect the presence of tail dependence we apply a new method based on the concept of tail copulas which accounts for different scenarios of joint extreme outcomes. Moreover, we show that the common practice to fit copulas to the data cannot capture the dynamics in the tail of the joint distribution and, therefore, is unsuitable for risk management purposes

Complex RNA folding kinetics revealed by single molecule FRET and hidden Markov models

We have developed a hidden Markov model and optimization procedure for photon-based single- molecule FRET data, which takes into account the trace-dependent background intensities. This analysis technique reveals an unprecedented amount of detail in the folding kinetics of the Diels-Alderase ribozyme. We find a multitude of extended (low-FRET) and compact (high-FRET) states. Five states were consistently and independently found in two FRET constructs and three Mg2+ concentrations. Structures generally tend to become more compact upon addition of Mg2+. Some compact structures are found to significantly depend on Mg2+ concentration, suggesting a tertiary fold stabilized by Mg2+ ions. One compact structure was found to be Mg2+-independent, consistent with stabilization by tertiary Watson-Crick base pairing found in the folded Diels-Alderase structure. A hierarchy of timescales was found, including dynamics of 10 ms or faster, likely due to tertiary structure fluctuations, and slow dynamics on the seconds timescale, presumably associated with significant changes in secondary structure. The folding pathways proceed through a series of intermediate secondary structures. There exist both, compact pathways and more complex ones, which display tertiary unfolding, then secondary refolding and, subsequently, again tertiary refolding

Posted, Visited, Exported: Altmetrics in the Social Tagging System BibSonomy

In social tagging systems, like Mendeley, CiteULike, and BibSonomy, users can post, tag, visit, or export scholarly publications. In this paper, we compare citations with metrics derived from users’ activities (altmetrics) in the popular social bookmarking system BibSonomy. Our analysis, using a corpus of more than 250,000 publications published before 2010, reveals that overall, citations and altmetrics in BibSonomy are mildly correlated. Furthermore, grouping publications by user-generated tags results in topic-homogeneous subsets that exhibit higher correlations with citations than the full corpus. We find that posts, exports, and visits of publications are correlated with citations and even bear predictive power over future impact. Machine learning classifiers predict whether the number of citations that a publication receives in a year exceeds the median number of citations in that year, based on the usage counts of the preceding year. In that setup, a Random Forest predictor outperforms the baseline on average by seven percentage points

It’s all about information? The Following Behaviour of Professors and PhD Students on Twitter

In this paper we investigate the role of the academic status in the following behaviour of computer scientists on Twitter. Based on a uses and gratifications perspective, we focus on the activity of a Twitter account and the reciprocity of following relationships. We propose that the account activity addresses the users' information motive only, whereas the user's academic status relates to both the information motive and community development (as in peer networking or career planning). Variables were extracted from Twitter user data. We applied a biographical approach to correctly identify the academic status (professor versus PhD student). We calculated a $2\times 2$ MANOVA on the influence of the activity of the account and the academic status (on different groups of followers) to differentiate the influence of the information motive versus the motive for community development. Results suggest that for computer scientists Twitter is mainly an information network. However, we found significant effects in the sense of career planning, that is, the accounts of professors had even in the case of low activity a relatively high number of researcher followers -- both PhD followers as well as professor followers. Additionally, there was also some weak evidence for community development gratifications in the sense of peer-networking of professors. Overall, we conclude that the academic use of Twitter is not only about information, but also about career planning and networking

Ablation and functionalization of flexographic printing forms using femtosecond lasers for additively manufactured polymer-optical waveguides

An efficient and low-cost approach to manufacture Opto-Mechatronic Interconnect Devices will be obligatory to handle the strongly increasing amount of data. The presented approach is based on a flexographic printing process. To adjust the transferred material the printing form is functionalized by means of laser-induced structures using an ultrashort-pulsed laser. The long-term goal is to adjust the printing result through microstructures in the printing form in order to create spatially resolved material transfer. In this work, first the ablation parameters are investigated at different repetition rates using a femtosecond laser. Further, a line structure is inserted in the material transferring areas of the printing form, which is consequently widened. Its influence on the printing result is presented. © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V

Numerical investigation of the influence of process parameters and tool path on the temperature in the laser glass deposition (LGD) process

Additive manufacturing has gained interest in the industry due to its flexibility in design and the possibility to integrate functionalities. Thereby, glass has a high potential to be developed also in this field due to its thermal stability, chemical resistance, and optical transmission. Laser glass deposition is a method for fabricating glass components on a glass substrate. The energy input and the resulting temperature are crucial factors in this process, which can influence the material properties and the resulting geometry. Also, depending on the temperature in the substrate, difficulties such as high residual stresses or thermal shock can occur. The temperature on the glass substrate and in the melt zone can be changed either directly by the laser power or laser spot size, or indirectly by other process variables such as travel speed or path planning strategy. In this study, the energy input and the resulting temperature in the melt zone are numerically investigated under selected process parameters. Based on this, a regression function was created so that the generated temperature can be calculated by corresponding laser power, laser spot diameter, and axis velocity. Moreover, different tool path strategies for the production of horizontally multilayered surfaces were thermally investigated. The results showed a more uniform temperature profile with zigzag movement than the spiral tool path. The influence of the turning point angle in path planning on the temperature change was also investigated. It was observed that the 90° corner in contrast to the smaller angle has no significant influence on the temperature change

Building a Web-Based Knowledge Repository on Climate Change to Support Environmental Communities

This paper presents the technology base and roadmap of the Climate Change Collaboratory, a Web-based platform that aims to strengthen the relations between scientists, educators, environmental NGOs, policy makers, news media and corporations - stakeholders who recognize the need for adaptation and mitigation, but differ in world-views, goals and agendas. The collaboratory manages expert knowledge and provides a platform for effective communication and collaboration. It aims to assist networking with leading international organizations, bridges the science-policy gap and promotes rich, self-sustaining community interaction to translate knowledge into coordinated action. Innovative survey instruments in the tradition of "games with a purpose" will create shared meaning through collaborative ontology building and leverage social networking platforms to capture indicators of environmental attitudes, lifestyles and behaviors