Complementarity and diversity in a soluble model ecosystem

Complementarity among species with different traits is one of the basic processes affecting biodiversity, defined as the number of species in the ecosystem. We present here a soluble model ecosystem in which the species are characterized by binary traits and their pairwise interactions follow a complementarity principle. Manipulation of the species composition, and so the study of its effects on the species diversity is achieved through the introduction of a bias parameter favoring one of the traits. Using statistical mechanics tools we find explicit expressions for the allowed values of the equilibrium species concentrations in terms of the control parameters of the model

“Rapid-Impact Interventions”: How a Policy of Integrated Control for Africa's Neglected Tropical Diseases Could Benefit the Poor

Controlling seven tropical infections in Africa would cost just 40 cents per person per year, and would permanently benefit hundreds of millions of people

Quality-adjusted Time Without Symptoms of disease or Toxicity (Q-TWiST) analysis of CPX-351 versus 7 + 3 in older adults with newly diagnosed high-risk/secondary AML

BACKGROUND: CPX-351 (United States: Vyxeos METHODS: Patients were randomized 1:1 between December 20, 2012 and November 11, 2014 to receive induction with CPX-351 or 7 + 3. Survival time for each patient was partitioned into 3 health states: TOX (time with any grade 3 or 4 toxicity or prior to remission), TWiST (time in remission without relapse or grade 3 or 4 toxicity), and REL (time after relapse). Within each treatment arm, Q-TWiST was calculated by adding the mean time spent in each health state weighted by its respective quality-of-life, represented by health utility. The relative Q-TWiST gain, calculated as the difference in Q-TWiST between treatment arms divided by the mean survival of the 7 + 3 control arm, was determined in order to evaluate results in the context of other Q-TWiST analyses. RESULTS: The relative Q-TWiST gain with CPX-351 versus 7 + 3 was 53.6% in the base case scenario and 39.8% among responding patients. Across various sensitivity analyses, the relative Q-TWiST gains for CPX-351 ranged from 48.0 to 57.6%, remaining well above the standard clinically important difference threshold of 15% for oncology. CONCLUSIONS: This post hoc analysis demonstrates that CPX-351 improved quality-adjusted survival, further supporting the clinical benefit in patients with newly diagnosed high-risk/secondary acute myeloid leukemia. Trial registration This trial was registered on September 28, 2012 at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01696084 ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01696084 ) and is complete

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

Haplotype structure and selection of the MDM2 oncogene in humans

The MDM2 protein is an ubiquitin ligase that plays a critical role in regulating the levels and activity of the p53 protein, which is a central tumor suppressor. A SNP in the human MDM2 gene (SNP309 T/G) occurs at frequencies dependent on demographic history and has been shown to have important differential effects on the activity of the MDM2 and p53 proteins and to associate with altered risk for the development of several cancers. In this report, the haplotype structure of the MDM2 gene is determined by using 14 different SNPs across the gene from three different population samples: Caucasians, African Americans, and the Ashkenazi Jewish ethnic group. The results presented in this report indicate that there is a substantially reduced variability of the deleterious SNP309 G allele haplotype in all three populations studied, whereas multiple common T allele haplotypes were found in all three populations. This observation, coupled with the relatively high frequency of the G allele haplotype in both and Caucasian and Ashkenazi Jewish population data sets, suggests that this haplotype could have undergone a recent positive selection sweep. An entropy-based selection test is presented that explicitly takes into account the correlations between different SNPs, and the analysis of MDM2 reveals a significant departure from the standard assumptions of selective neutrality

Cpx-351 (cytarabine and daunorubicin) liposome for injection versus conventional cytarabine plus daunorubicin in older patients with newly diagnosed secondary acute myeloid leukemia

© 2018 by American Society of Clinical Oncology. Purpose CPX-351 is a dual-drug liposomal encapsulation of cytarabine and daunorubicin that delivers a synergistic 5:1 drug ratio into leukemia cells to a greater extent than normal bone marrow cells. Prior clinical studies demonstrated a sustained drug ratio and exposure in vivo and prolonged survival versus standard-of-care cytarabine plus daunorubicin chemotherapy (7+3 regimen) in older patients with newly diagnosed secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML). Patients and Methods In this open-label, randomized, phase III trial, 309 patients age 60 to 75 years with newly diagnosed high-risk/sAML received one to two induction cycles of CPX-351 or 7+3 followed by consolidation therapy with a similar regimen. The primary end point was overall survival. Results CPX-351 significantly improved median overall survival versus 7+3 (9.56 v 5.95 months; hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.90; one-sided P = .003). Overall remission rate was also significantly higher with CPX-351 versus 7+3 (47.7% v 33.3%; two-sided P = .016). Improved outcomes were observed across age-groups and AML subtypes. The incidences of nonhematologic adverse events were comparable between arms, despite a longer treatment phase and prolonged time to neutrophil and platelet count recovery with CPX-351. Early mortality rates with CPX-351 and 7+3 were 5.9% and 10.6% (two-sided P = .149) through day 30 and 13.7% and 21.2% (two-sided P = .097) through day 60. Conclusion CPX-351 treatment is associated with significantly longer survival compared with conventional 7+3 in older adults with newly diagnosed sAML. The safety profile of CPX-351 was similar to that of conventional 7+3 therapy

Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods.An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia