Characteristics of medium range rainfall forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon

Mean characteristics of the rainfall forecasts produced by the global data analysis-forecast system of India are examined for the summer monsoons of 1993-1996. Further, daily rainfall forecasts (accumulated for 24 h) extending from day 1 to day 5 are utilised to compute monthly/seasonal mean forecast fields to study their consistency and reliability. Global patterns of rainfall forecasts are also compared with the large scale rainfall climatological fields. In addition, observed rainfall distributions over India are used for regional verification of the medium range rainfall forecasts. The forecasts appear to reproduce most of the large scale features of rainfall, except the sharp gradients over the Deccan plateau (leeside of the Western Ghats-west coast mountains over the south of Peninsular India) and the Gangetic plains over the north of India. Further, it is found that the forecast model has a characteristic tendency to reduce the quantum of rainfall over northwest India and the north Indian plains to the south of the Himalayas. In addition, in this study, certain aspects of the year-to-year variability of the predicted rainfall fields and their associated characteristics are examined along with the other systematic errors of the model. It is found that in this case, the sources of systematic errors could at least partially be eliminated, the rainfall forecasts up to day 3 or so can become a very useful product of interest

Circulation characteristics associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone during northern winter

In this study, circulation characteristics associated with the ITCZ during the winter are examined by using the archives of National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). To this end, some of the mean large scale basic meteorological and derived fields surrounding the ITCZ are analysed to examine the ITCZ circulation. It would be expected that during the INDOEX field phase experiment, several remote sensing and special observations be generated. To assess the impact of new remote sensing data in maintaining the structure and intensity of ITCZ circulation, an assimilation experiment is conducted using the high resolution TOVS temperature profile data of NOAA over the Indian Ocean for March 1996. An assimilation for the forthcoming INDOEX field phase duration in 1999 is planned by incorporating all satellite and observational data to be collected to study the dynamics of ITCZ

Experimental real-time multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction of rainfall during monsoon 2008: Large-scale medium-range aspects

Realistic simulation/prediction of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall on various space-time scales is a challenging scientific task. Compared to mid-latitudes, a proportional skill improvement in the prediction of monsoon rainfall in the medium range has not happened in recent years. Global models and data assimilation techniques are being improved for monsoon/tropics. However, multimodel ensemble (MME) forecasting is gaining popularity, as it has the potential to provide more information for practical forecasting in terms of making a consensus forecast and handling model uncertainties. As major centers are exchanging model output in near real-time, MME is a viable inexpensive way of enhancing the forecasting skill and information content. During monsoon 2008, on an experimental basis, an MME forecasting of large-scale monsoon precipitation in the medium range was carried out in real-time at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India. Simple ensemble mean (EMN) giving equal weight to member models, biascorrected ensemble mean (BCEMn) and MME forecast, where different weights are given to member models, are the products of the algorithm tested here. In general, the aforementioned products from the multi-model ensemble forecast system have a higher skill than individual model forecasts. The skill score for the Indian domain and other sub-regions indicates that the BCEMn produces the best result, compared to EMN and MME. Giving weights to different models to obtain an MME product helps to improve individual member models only marginally. It is noted that for higher rainfall values, the skill of the global model rainfall forecast decreases rapidly beyond day-3, and hence for day-4 and day-5, the MME products could not bring much improvement over member models. However, up to day-3, the MME products were always better than individual member models

Heavy rainfall episode over Mumbai on 26 July 2005: Assessment of NWP guidance

In the present work a qualitative assessment of guidance from NCMRWF operational global and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems in the episode of unprecedented rainfall over Mumbai has been attempted. This also consolidates and examines the predictions that were provided by some of the leading global operational centres. Some hindcast runs were also made with different initial conditions. It reveals that the use of very high resolution global and regional models with advanced data assimilation techniques (4D Var), that optimally utilizes information from satellite observations, could significantly enhance the usefulness of NWP guidance

Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors

Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temperature, speci.c humidity, geopotential height, rainfall, systematic errors, root mean square errors and specific events like the monsoon depressions. It is very difficult to address the question of which model performs best over the Indian region? An honest answer is 'none'. Perhaps an ensemble approach would be the best. However, if we must make a final verdict, it can be stated that in general, (i) the WRF is able to produce best All India rainfall prediction compared to observations in the day-1 forecast and, the MM5 is able to produce best All India rainfall forecasts in day-3, but ETA and RSM are able to depict the best distribution of rainfall maxima along the west coast of India, (ii) the MM5 is able to produce least RMSE of wind and geopotential fields at most of the time, and (iii) the RSM is able to produce least errors in the day-1 forecasts of the tracks, while the ETA model produces least errors in the day-3 forecasts

Single nucleotide polymorphism-based genome-wide linkage analysis in Japanese atopic dermatitis families

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Atopic dermatitis develops as a result of complex interactions between several genetic and environmental factors. To date, 4 genome-wide linkage studies of atopic dermatitis have been performed in Caucasian populations, however, similar studies have not been done in Asian populations. The aim of this study was to identify chromosome regions linked to atopic dermatitis in a Japanese population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used a high-density, single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping assay, the Illumina BeadArray Linkage Mapping Panel (version 4) comprising 5,861 single nucleotide polymorphisms, to perform a genome-wide linkage analysis of 77 Japanese families with 111 affected sib-pairs with atopic dermatitis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found suggestive evidence for linkage with 15q21 (LOD = 2.01, NPL = 2.87, <it>P </it>= .0012) and weak linkage to 1q24 (LOD = 1.26, NPL = 2.44, <it>P </it>= .008).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We report the first genome-wide linkage study of atopic dermatitis in an Asian population, and novel loci on chromosomes 15q21 and 1q24 linked to atopic dermatitis. Identification of novel causative genes for atopic dermatitis will advance our understanding of the pathogenesis of atopic dermatitis.</p

Weighted functional linear regression models for gene-based association analysis

<div><p>Functional linear regression models are effectively used in gene-based association analysis of complex traits. These models combine information about individual genetic variants, taking into account their positions and reducing the influence of noise and/or observation errors. To increase the power of methods, where several differently informative components are combined, weights are introduced to give the advantage to more informative components. Allele-specific weights have been introduced to collapsing and kernel-based approaches to gene-based association analysis. Here we have for the first time introduced weights to functional linear regression models adapted for both independent and family samples. Using data simulated on the basis of GAW17 genotypes and weights defined by allele frequencies via the beta distribution, we demonstrated that type I errors correspond to declared values and that increasing the weights of causal variants allows the power of functional linear models to be increased. We applied the new method to real data on blood pressure from the ORCADES sample. Five of the six known genes with <i>P</i> < 0.1 in at least one analysis had lower <i>P</i> values with weighted models. Moreover, we found an association between diastolic blood pressure and the <i>VMP1</i> gene (<i>P</i> = 8.18×10⁻⁶), when we used a weighted functional model. For this gene, the unweighted functional and weighted kernel-based models had <i>P</i> = 0.004 and 0.006, respectively. The new method has been implemented in the program package FREGAT, which is freely available at <a href="https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/FREGAT/index.html" target="_blank">https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/FREGAT/index.html</a>.</p></div

Genetic analysis of typical wet-type age-related macular degeneration and polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy in Japanese population

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a common cause of blindness in the elderly. Caucasian patients are predominantly affected by the dry form of AMD, whereas Japanese patients have predominantly the wet form of AMD and/or polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV). Although genetic association in the 10q26 (ARMS2/HTRA1) region has been established in many ethnic groups for dry-type AMD, typical wet-type AMD, and PCV, the contribution of the 1q32 (CFH) region seem to differ among these groups. Here we show a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the ARMS2/HTRA1 locus is associated in the whole genome for Japanese typical wet-type AMD (rs10490924: \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$p = 4.1 \times 10 ^{ - 4}$$\end{document}, OR = 4.16) and PCV (rs10490924: \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$p = 3.7 \times 10 ^{ -8}$$\end{document}, OR = 2.72) followed by CFH (rs800292: \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$p = 7.4 \times 10 ^{ -5}$$\end{document}, OR = 2.08; \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$p = 2.6 \times {10^{ - 4}}$$\end{document}, OR = 2.00), which differs from previous studies in Caucasian populations. Moreover, a SNP (rs2241394) in complement component C3 gene showed significant association with PCV (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$p = 2.5 \times {10^{ - 3}}$$\end{document}, OR = 3.47). We conclude that dry-type AMD, typical wet-type AMD, and PCV have both common and distinct genetic risks that become apparent when comparing Japanese versus Caucasian populations

De-identifying a public use microdata file from the Canadian national discharge abstract database

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) collects hospital discharge abstract data (DAD) from Canadian provinces and territories. There are many demands for the disclosure of this data for research and analysis to inform policy making. To expedite the disclosure of data for some of these purposes, the construction of a DAD public use microdata file (PUMF) was considered. Such purposes include: confirming some published results, providing broader feedback to CIHI to improve data quality, training students and fellows, providing an easily accessible data set for researchers to prepare for analyses on the full DAD data set, and serve as a large health data set for computer scientists and statisticians to evaluate analysis and data mining techniques. The objective of this study was to measure the probability of re-identification for records in a PUMF, and to de-identify a national DAD PUMF consisting of 10% of records.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Plausible attacks on a PUMF were evaluated. Based on these attacks, the 2008-2009 national DAD was de-identified. A new algorithm was developed to minimize the amount of suppression while maximizing the precision of the data. The acceptable threshold for the probability of correct re-identification of a record was set at between 0.04 and 0.05. Information loss was measured in terms of the extent of suppression and entropy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two different PUMF files were produced, one with geographic information, and one with no geographic information but more clinical information. At a threshold of 0.05, the maximum proportion of records with the diagnosis code suppressed was 20%, but these suppressions represented only 8-9% of all values in the DAD. Our suppression algorithm has less information loss than a more traditional approach to suppression. Smaller regions, patients with longer stays, and age groups that are infrequently admitted to hospitals tend to be the ones with the highest rates of suppression.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The strategies we used to maximize data utility and minimize information loss can result in a PUMF that would be useful for the specific purposes noted earlier. However, to create a more detailed file with less information loss suitable for more complex health services research, the risk would need to be mitigated by requiring the data recipient to commit to a data sharing agreement.</p