More ethical and more efficient clinical research:multiplex trial design

BACKGROUND: Today's clinical research faces challenges such as a lack of clinical equipoise between treatment arms, reluctance in randomizing for multiple treatments simultaneously, inability to address interactions and increasingly restricted resources. Furthermore, many trials are biased by extensive exclusion criteria, relatively small sample size and less appropriate outcome measures. FINDINGS: We propose a 'Multiplex' trial design that preserves clinical equipoise with a continuous and factorial trial design that will also result in more efficient use of resources. This multiplex design accommodates subtrials with appropriate choice of treatment arms within each subtrial. Clinical equipoise should increase consent rates while the factorial design is the best way to identify interactions. CONCLUSION: The multiplex design may evolve naturally from today's research limitations and challenges, while principal objections seem absent. However this new design poses important infrastructural, organisational and psychological challenges that need in depth consideration

This is your toolkit in hemodynamic monitoring

Determination of accurate diagnosis and prognosis for patients suspected of circulatory shock is essential for optimal decision-making. Numerous techniques are available, and each has its specific indications and value

Mortality prediction models in the adult critically ill : A scoping review

Background Mortality prediction models are applied in the intensive care unit (ICU) to stratify patients into different risk categories and to facilitate benchmarking. To ensure that the correct prediction models are applied for these purposes, the best performing models must be identified. As a first step, we aimed to establish a systematic review of mortality prediction models in critically ill patients. Methods Mortality prediction models were searched in four databases using the following criteria: developed for use in adult ICU patients in high-income countries, with mortality as primary or secondary outcome. Characteristics and performance measures of the models were summarized. Performance was presented in terms of discrimination, calibration and overall performance measures presented in the original publication. Results In total, 43 mortality prediction models were included in the final analysis. In all, 15 models were only internally validated (35%), 13 externally (30%) and 10 (23%) were both internally and externally validated by the original researchers. Discrimination was assessed in 42 models (98%). Commonly used calibration measures were the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (60%) and the calibration plot (28%). Calibration was not assessed in 11 models (26%). Overall performance was assessed in the Brier score (19%) and the Nagelkerke's R-2 (4.7%). Conclusions Mortality prediction models have varying methodology, and validation and performance of individual models differ. External validation by the original researchers is often lacking and head-to-head comparisons are urgently needed to identify the best performing mortality prediction models for guiding clinical care and research in different settings and populations.Peer reviewe

Clinical examination for diagnosing circulatory shock

Purpose of review: In the acute setting of circulatory shock, physicians largely depend on clinical examination and basic laboratory values. The daily use of clinical examination for diagnostic purposes contrasts sharp with the limited number of studies. We aim to provide an overview of the diagnostic accuracy of clinical examination in estimating circulatory shock reflected by an inadequate cardiac output (CO). Recent findings: Recent studies showed poor correlations between CO and mottling, capillary refill time or central-to-peripheral temperature gradients in univariable analyses. The accuracy of physicians to perform an educated guess of CO based on clinical examination lies around 50% and the accuracy for recognizing a low CO is similar. Studies that used predefined clinical profiles composed of several clinical examination signs show more reliable estimations of CO with accuracies ranging from 81 up to 100%. Summary: Single variables obtained by clinical examination should not be used when estimating CO. Physician's educated guesses of CO based on unstructured clinical examination are like the flip of a coin'. Structured clinical examination based on combined clinical signs shows the best accuracy. Future studies should focus on using a combination of signs in an unselected population, eventually to educate physicians in estimating CO by using predefined clinical profiles

Clinical Examination for the Prediction of Mortality in the Critically Ill : The Simple Intensive Care Studies-I

Objectives: Caregivers use clinical examination to timely recognize deterioration of a patient, yet data on the prognostic value of clinical examination are inconsistent. In the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I, we evaluated the association of clinical examination findings with 90-day mortality in critically ill patients. Design: Prospective single-center cohort study. Setting: ICU of a single tertiary care level hospital between March 27, 2015, and July 22, 2017. Patients: All consecutive adults acutely admitted to the ICU and expected to stay for at least 24 hours. Interventions: A protocolized clinical examination of 19 clinical signs conducted within 24 hours of admission. Measurements Main Results: Independent predictors of 90-day mortality were identified using multivariable logistic regression analyses. Model performance was compared with established prognostic risk scores using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Robustness of our findings was tested by internal bootstrap validation and adjustment of the threshold for statistical significance. A total of 1,075 patients were included, of whom 298 patients (28%) had died at 90-day follow-up. Multivariable analyses adjusted for age and norepinephrine infusion rate demonstrated that the combination of higher respiratory rate, higher systolic blood pressure, lower central temperature, altered consciousness, and decreased urine output was independently associated with 90-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71-0.78). Clinical examination had a similar discriminative value as compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.79; p = 0.29) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.80; p = 0.16) and was significantly better than the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.64-0.71; p <0.001). Conclusions: Clinical examination has reasonable discriminative value for assessing 90-day mortality in acutely admitted ICU patients. In our study population, a single, protocolized clinical examination had similar prognostic abilities compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV and outperformed the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.Peer reviewe

Expert statement for the management of hypovolemia in sepsis

Hypovolemia is frequent in patients with sepsis and may contribute to worse outcome. The management of these patients is impeded by the low quality of the evidence for many of the specific components of the care. In this paper, we discuss recent advances and controversies in this field and give expert statements for the management of hypovolemia in patients with sepsis including triggers and targets for fluid therapy and volumes and types of fluid to be given. Finally, we point to unanswered questions and suggest a roadmap for future research.Peer reviewe

The effect of metformin on cardiovascular risk profile in patients without diabetes presenting with acute myocardial infarction:data from the Glycometabolic Intervention as adjunct to Primary Coronary Intervention in ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (GIPS-III) trial

Objective: In patients with diabetes mellitus, metformin treatment is associated with reduced mortality and attenuation of cardiovascular risk. As a subanalysis of the Glycometabolic Intervention as adjunct to Primary Coronary Intervention in ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (GIPS-III) study, we evaluated whether metformin treatment in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) without diabetes improves the cardiovascular risk profile. Methods: A total of 379 patients, without known diabetes, presenting with STEMI were randomly allocated to receive metformin 500 mg twice daily or placebo for 4 months. Results: After 4 months, the cardiovascular risk profile of patients receiving metformin (n= 172) was improved compared with placebo (n= 174); glycated hemoglobin (5.83% (95% CI 5.79% to 5.87%) vs 5.89% (95% CI 5.85% to 5.92%); 40.2 mmol/mol (95% CI 39.8 to 40.6) vs 40.9 mmol/mol (40.4 to 41.2), p= 0.049); total cholesterol (3.85 mmol/L (95% CI 3.73 to 3.97) vs 4.02 mmol/L (95% CI 3.90 to 4.14), p= 0.045); low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (2.10 mmol/L (95% CI 1.99 to 2.20) vs 2.3 mmol/L (95% CI 2.20 to 2.40), p= 0.007); body weight (83.8 kg (95% CI 83.0 to 84.7) vs 85.2 kg (95% CI 84.4 to 86.1), p= 0.024); body mass index (26.8 kg/m(2) (95% CI 26.5 to 27.0) vs 27.2 kg/m(2) (95% CI 27.0 to 27.5), p= 0.014). Levels of fasting glucose, postchallenge glucose, insulin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and blood pressure were similar in both groups. Conclusions: Among patients with STEMI without diabetes, treatment with metformin for 4 months resulted in a modest improvement of the cardiovascular risk profile compared with placebo

Clinical examination findings as predictors of acute kidney injury in critically ill patients

Background Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) in critically ill patients is associated with a markedly increased morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to establish the predictive value of clinical examination for AKI in critically ill patients. Methods This was a sub-study of the SICS-I, a prospective observational cohort study of critically ill patients acutely admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Clinical examination was performed within 24 hours of ICU admission. The occurrence of AKI was determined at day two and three after admission according to the KDIGO definition including serum creatinine and urine output. Multivariable regression modeling was used to assess the value of clinical examination for predicting AKI, adjusted for age, comorbidities and the use of vasopressors. Results A total of 1003 of 1075 SICS-I patients (93%) were included in this sub-study. 414 of 1003 patients (41%) fulfilled the criteria for AKI. Increased heart rate (OR 1.12 per 10 beats per minute increase, 98.5% CI 1.04-1.22), subjectively cold extremities (OR 1.52, 98.5% CI 1.07-2.16) and a prolonged capillary refill time on the sternum (OR 1.89, 98.5% CI 1.01-3.55) were associated with AKI. This multivariable analysis yielded an area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) of 0.70 (98.5% CI 0.66-0.74). The model performed better when lactate was included (AUROC of 0.72, 95%CI 0.69-0.75), P = .04. Conclusion Clinical examination findings were able to predict AKI with moderate accuracy in a large cohort of critically ill patients. Findings of clinical examination on ICU admission may trigger further efforts to help predict developing AKI.Peer reviewe

Intermediate Dose Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin for Thrombosis Prophylaxis:Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis and Trial Sequential Analysis

Different doses of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) are registered and used for thrombosis prophylaxis. We assessed benefits and harms of thrombosis prophylaxis with a predefined intermediate-dose LMWH compared with placebo or no treatment in patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We performed a systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses (TSA) following The Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions . Medline, Cochrane CENTRAL, Web of Science, and Embase were searched up to December 2018. Trials were evaluated for risk of bias and quality of evidence was assessed following the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Seventy randomized trials with 34,046 patients were included. Eighteen (26%) had overall low risk of bias. There was a small statistically significant effect of LMWH on all-cause mortality (risk ratio [RR]: 0.96; TSA-adjusted confidence interval [TSA-adjusted CI]: 0.94-0.98) which disappeared in sensitivity analyses excluding ambulatory cancer patients (RR: 0.99; TSA-adjusted CI: 0.84-1.16). There was moderate-quality evidence for a statistically significant beneficial effect on symptomatic VTE (odds ratio [OR]: 0.59; TSA-adjusted CI: 0.53-0.67; number needed to treat [NNT]: 76; 95% CI: 60-106) and a statistically significant harmful effect on major bleeding (Peto OR: 1.66; TSA-adjusted CI: 1.31-2.10; number needed to harm [NNH]: 212; 95% CI: 142-393). There were no significant intervention effects on serious adverse events. The use of intermediate-dose LMWH for thrombosis prophylaxis compared with placebo or no treatment was associated with a small statistically significant reduction of all-cause mortality that disappeared in sensitivity analyses excluding trials that evaluated LMWH for anticancer treatment. Intermediate-dose LMWH provides benefits in terms of VTE prevention while it increases major bleeding