Estimating Community Stability and Ecological Interactions from Time-Series Data

Natural ecological communities are continuously buffeted by a varying environment, often making it difficult to measure the stability of communities using concepts requiring the existence of an equilibrium point. Instead of an equilibrium point, the equilibrial state of communities subject to environmental stochasticity is a stationary distribution, which is characterized by means, variances, and other statistical moments. Here, we derive three properties of stochastic multispecies communities that measure different characteristics associated with community stability. These properties can be estimated from multispecies time-series data using first-order multivariate autoregressive (MAR(1)) models. We demonstrate how to estimate the parameters of MAR(1) models and obtain confidence intervals for both parameters and the measures of stability. We also address the problem of estimation when there is observation (measurement) error. To illustrate these methods, we compare the stability of the planktonic communities in three lakes in which nutrient loading and planktivorous fish abundance were experimentally manipulated. MAR(1) models and the statistical methods we present can be used to identify dynamically important interactions between species and to test hypotheses about stability and other dynamical properties of naturally varying ecological communities. Thus, they can be used to integrate theoretical and empirical studies of community dynamics

Oscillons: an encounter with dynamical chaos in 1953?

We present evidences that Ben F. Laposky (1914-2000) might have been the first person who created a family of nonlinear analog circuits that allowed him to observe chaotic attractors and other trademarks of nonlinear science as early as 1953.Comment: accepted to Chao

Human skeletal muscle feed arteries: evidence of regulatory potential

Aim Recently, it has been recognized that human skeletal muscle feed arteries can be harvested during exploratory surgery for melanoma. This approach provides vessels for in vitro study from a wide spectrum of relatively healthy humans. Although, the regulatory role of skeletal muscle feed arteries in rodent models has been documented, whether such vessels in humans possess this functionality is unknown. Methods Therefore, skeletal muscle feed arteries (~950 μm OD) from 10 humans (48 ± 4, 27–64 years) were studied using pressure myography. Vessel function was assessed using potassium chloride (KCl), phenylephrine (PE), acetylcholine (ACh) and sodium nitroprusside (SNP) concentration–response curves (CRCs) to characterize non-receptor and receptor-mediated vasoconstriction as well as endothelium-dependent and independent vasodilation respectively. To understand the physiological relevance of the diameter changes as a result of pharmacological stimulation, the estimated conductance ratio (CR) was calculated. Results Vessel function protocols revealed significant vasoconstriction in response to PE and KCl (35 ± 6; 43 ± 9%vasoconstriction, respectively) and significant vasodilation with ACh and SNP (85 ± 7; 121 ± 17% vasodilation, respectively). Both PE and KCl significantly reduced the CR (0.26 ± 0.05 and 0.23 ± 0.07, respectively), whereas ACh and SNP increased the CR (2.56 ± 0.10 and 5.32 ± 1.3, respectively). Conclusion These novel findings provide evidence that human skeletal muscle feed arteries are capable of generating significant diameter changes that would translate into significant changes in vascular conductance. Thus, human skeletal muscle feed arteries likely play a significant role in regulating vascular conductance and subsequently blood flow in vivo

Random replicators with high-order interactions

We use tools of the equilibrium statistical mechanics of disordered systems to study analytically the statistical properties of an ecosystem composed of N species interacting via random, Gaussian interactions of order p >= 2, and deterministic self-interactions u <= 0. We show that for nonzero u the effect of increasing the order of the interactions is to make the system more cooperative, in the sense that the fraction of extinct species is greatly reduced. Furthermore, we find that for p > 2 there is a threshold value which gives a lower bound to the concentration of the surviving species, preventing then the existence of rare species and, consequently, increasing the robustness of the ecosystem to external perturbations.Comment: 7 pages, 4 Postscript figure

α1-Adrenergic responsiveness in human skeletal muscle feed arteries: the impact of reducing extracellular pH

What is the central question of this study? In human arteries involved in the regulation of muscle blood flow, there is a lack of data about whether acidosis alters vascular sensitivity to vasoactive agents, as well as altering endothelium dependent vasorelaxation. Little is known about the interaction of metabolites and vascular function in human skeletal muscle feed arteries. • What is the main finding and its importance? Increasing acidosis attenuated the response and sensitivity of the arteries to phenylephrine; this effect was selective to the receptor over smooth muscle. Acidosis did not alter endothelium dependent vasorelaxation. Impaired vasoconstriction coupled with intact vasorelaxation, promotes decreased vascular tone with exposure to acidosis, and may contribute to sympatholysis during exercise

Coding accuracy for Parkinson's disease hospital admissions:implications for healthcare planning in the UK

ObjectivesHospital Episode Statistics data are used for healthcare planning and hospital reimbursements. Reliability of these data is dependent on the accuracy of individual hospitals reporting Secondary Uses Service (SUS) which includes hospitalisation. The number and coding accuracy for Parkinson's disease hospital admissions at a tertiary centre in Birmingham was assessed.Study designRetrospective, routine-data–based study.MethodsA retrospective electronic database search for all Parkinson's disease patients admitted to the tertiary hospital over a 4-year period (2009–2013) was performed on the SUS database using International Classification of Disease codes, and on the local inpatient electronic prescription database, Prescription and Information Communications System, using medication prescriptions. Capture-recapture methods were used to estimate the number of patients and admissions missed by both databases.ResultsFrom the two databases, between July 2009 and June 2013, 1068 patients with Parkinson's disease accounted for 1999 admissions. During these admissions, the Parkinson's disease was coded as a primary or secondary diagnosis. Ninety-one percent of these admissions were recorded on the SUS database. Capture-recapture methods estimated that the number of Parkinson's disease patients admitted during this period was 1127 patients (95% confidence interval: 1107–1146). A supplementary search of both SUS and Prescription and Information Communications System was undertaken using the hospital numbers of these 1068 patients. This identified another 479 admissions. SUS database under-estimated Parkinson's disease admissions by 27% during the study period.ConclusionThe accuracy of disease coding is critical for healthcare policy planning and must be improved. If the under-reporting of Parkinson's disease admissions on the SUS database is repeated nationally, expenditure on Parkinson's disease admissions in England is under-estimated by approximately £61 million per year

Pre-Sleep Low Glycemic Modified Starch Does Not Improve Next Morning Running Performance in Endurance Athletes

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