Simulating the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on farm productivity and income: A bioeconomic analysis

This study applied at the farm level in Tunisia aims at understanding the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and income in Africa. Possible future climates are presented through different climate scenarios. The latter combines three levels of increasing temperature (1�centigrade (C), 2�C, and 3�C) with two levels of decreasing precipitation (10 and 20 percent) and a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere (350 to 700 parts per million). The farming system of production is replicated through a bioeconomic model; that is, one that couples a cropping system model and an economic model run sequentially. The study reveals that land productivity and farm income decline under climate change. Depending on the changes in precipitation, farm productivity falls by 15 to 20 percent and farm income 5 to 20 percent when the temperature increases moderately (1�C). As the climate warms up (2�C and 3�C), farm productivity and income are severely affected, by 35 to 55 percent and 45 to 70 percent, respectively. When simple adaptation strategies based on new management techniques for hard wheat are tested - more irrigation and fertilization - compensations for the negative effects of climate change are found to be worthwhile only for a 1�C increase in temperature. However, the success of adaptation strategies highly depends on the availability of more water and lower additional cost to mobilize them at the farm level.adaptation strategies, Bioeconomic modeling, Agriculture, Climate change, farm income, productivity,

A multiregion general equilibrium analysis of fiscal consolidation in South Africa:

A multiregion applied general equilibrium model is used to examine the financial interactions among spheres of government in the context of fiscal consolidation. The framework combines nine regional submodels interacting through the trading of goods and services and the mobility of labor and capital. The model integrates intergovernmental fiscal transfers, which play an important role in reducing the disparity in living standards between regions. The analysis demonstrates that the current intergovernmental revenue transfer system has significant inter- and intraregional equity effects, although its nationwide impact is less important. Reducing intergovernmental transfers leads to a reduction in welfare in the four regions where the net transfers were initially positive (Limpopo, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and North West Province). In contrast, welfare increases in the five other regions (Northern Cape, Mpumalanga, Free State, Gauteng, and the Western Cape). When transfer revenues fall and, consequently, regional and local government revenues drop, poor households are the most affected, as they depend more on public services that are essentially financed by governments. When the government's fiscal position improves, it is also poor households that benefit more from additional government expenses.intergovernmental transfer, multiregion applied general equilibrium, consolidation, welfare,

Exports and labor income by gender: a social accounting matrix analysis for Senegal

Higher incomes for women can have significant beneficial impacts for poverty reduction both in the short run by providing more resources to households and in the long run by increasing investments in the human capital of children. While substantial research has been done using microeconomic household survey data on gender disparities in labor incomes in developing countries, these studies may not necessarily provide insights on how broad structural shifts in an economy could affect differently opportunities for work and income generation for men and women. In this paper, we use a recent Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Senegal to assess how growth in various sectors of the economy, and especially in exports from tourism, could affect the incomes of women and men both directly and indirectly through multiplier effects. We find that a tourism export boom could lead to increase not only in the level of income of Senegalese women, but also in their share of total labor income in the economy.Input-output analysis; Senegal; Gender; Tourism

Priority Agricultural Commodities for Expanding and Diversifying Intra-Regional Trade in Eastern and Southern Africa

This report explores the potential to diversify intra-regional trade in Eastern and Southern Africa countries (Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, and Burundi), with special reference to the COMESA regional market. More specifically, three critical issues were analyzed. First, the current performance and the potential to trade has been examined using several regional trade performance indicators including the production and trade similarities, and the competitiveness of the sample countries in the regional trade. The analyses revealed that there exists significant production and trade dissimilarities among the sample countries, which implies the existence of untapped potential for expanding agricultural trade in the region with tremendous consequences for smallholder producers. Second, the outlook for increasing trade and competitiveness under different policy change scenarios (reduction of cross-border trade barriers; lowering the overall cost of trading, and/or increasing productivity—crop yield) has been projected using a regional multi-commodity Market Model (ESA-EMM). This projection has indicated that the response to the policy changes and the potential for competitiveness differs across agricultural commodities and countries. Based on this deference, candidate commodities that could help countries expand their competitiveness and trade diversification have been identified. Third, the candidate commodities are prioritized based on multiple criteria that include not only regional trade potential but also the commodity’s contribution to economic growth, agricultural value addition, employment, and poverty reduction using country-level Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) and Micro-Simulation Models. The models simulations revealed that priority commodities that would increase the countries’ agricultural trade and other economic outcomes include both the conventional export crops such as coffee, tobacco, tea and oilseeds, and the staple crops such as maize and pulses. Maize has come out as a competitive and priority commodity for Ethiopia and Tanzania, not only to support the local food demand but also to supply for the regional market and improve the countries’ competitiveness. It was also learnt that there exists a huge potential for expanding regional trade in live animals and animal products

Exports and labor income by gender: a social accounting matrix analysis for Senegal

Higher incomes for women can have significant beneficial impacts for poverty reduction both in the short run by providing more resources to households and in the long run by increasing investments in the human capital of children. While substantial research has been done using microeconomic household survey data on gender disparities in labor incomes in developing countries, these studies may not necessarily provide insights on how broad structural shifts in an economy could affect differently opportunities for work and income generation for men and women. In this paper, we use a recent Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Senegal to assess how growth in various sectors of the economy, and especially in exports from tourism, could affect the incomes of women and men both directly and indirectly through multiplier effects. We find that a tourism export boom could lead to increase not only in the level of income of Senegalese women, but also in their share of total labor income in the economy

Is Africa on track to ending poverty by 2030?

Progress in poverty reduction has been slow for the Sub-Saharan Africa region which faces serious challenges in addressing inclusive growth. This study assesses the income growth requirements to achieve the sustainable development goals on poverty for given income inequality performances in African countries. The assessment is based on a microeconomic approach and survey data for the countries. Results reveal that, given their current income growth and inequality performances, more than half (55%) of the African countries are off track to halving poverty between 2015 and 2030. Therefore, under the current inequality reduction performances, African countries should strive to deliver higher income growth results, above 6% annual gross domestic product on average, to be on track to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals target of halving poverty between 2015 and 2030.https://academic.oup.com/jaeSchool of Public Management and Administration (SPMA

Species-Specific Activity of HIV-1 Vpu and Positive Selection of Tetherin Transmembrane Domain Variants

Tetherin/BST-2/CD317 is a recently identified antiviral protein that blocks the release of nascent retrovirus, and other virus, particles from infected cells. An HIV-1 accessory protein, Vpu, acts as an antagonist of tetherin. Here, we show that positive selection is evident in primate tetherin sequences and that HIV-1 Vpu appears to have specifically adapted to antagonize variants of tetherin found in humans and chimpanzees. Tetherin variants found in rhesus macaques (rh), African green monkeys (agm) and mice were able to inhibit HIV-1 particle release, but were resistant to antagonism by HIV-1 Vpu. Notably, reciprocal exchange of transmembrane domains between human and monkey tetherins conferred sensitivity and resistance to Vpu, identifying this protein domain as a critical determinant of Vpu function. Indeed, differences between hu-tetherin and rh-tetherin at several positions in the transmembrane domain affected sensitivity to antagonism by Vpu. Two alterations in the hu-tetherin transmembrane domain, that correspond to differences found in rh- and agm-tetherin proteins, were sufficient to render hu-tetherin completely resistant to HIV-1 Vpu. Interestingly, transmembrane and cytoplasmic domain sequences in primate tetherins exhibit variation at numerous codons that is likely the result of positive selection, and some of these changes coincide with determinants of HIV-1 Vpu sensitivity. Overall, these data indicate that tetherin could impose a barrier to viral zoonosis as a consequence of positive selection that has been driven by ancient viral antagonists, and that the HIV-1 Vpu protein has specialized to target the transmembrane domains found in human/chimpanzee tetherin proteins

Species-Specific Activity of HIV-1 Vpu and Positive Selection of Tetherin Transmembrane Domain Variants

Tetherin/BST-2/CD317 is a recently identified antiviral protein that blocks the release of nascent retrovirus, and other virus, particles from infected cells. An HIV-1 accessory protein, Vpu, acts as an antagonist of tetherin. Here, we show that positive selection is evident in primate tetherin sequences and that HIV-1 Vpu appears to have specifically adapted to antagonize variants of tetherin found in humans and chimpanzees. Tetherin variants found in rhesus macaques (rh), African green monkeys (agm) and mice were able to inhibit HIV-1 particle release, but were resistant to antagonism by HIV-1 Vpu. Notably, reciprocal exchange of transmembrane domains between human and monkey tetherins conferred sensitivity and resistance to Vpu, identifying this protein domain as a critical determinant of Vpu function. Indeed, differences between hu-tetherin and rh-tetherin at several positions in the transmembrane domain affected sensitivity to antagonism by Vpu. Two alterations in the hu-tetherin transmembrane domain, that correspond to differences found in rh- and agm-tetherin proteins, were sufficient to render hu-tetherin completely resistant to HIV-1 Vpu. Interestingly, transmembrane and cytoplasmic domain sequences in primate tetherins exhibit variation at numerous codons that is likely the result of positive selection, and some of these changes coincide with determinants of HIV-1 Vpu sensitivity. Overall, these data indicate that tetherin could impose a barrier to viral zoonosis as a consequence of positive selection that has been driven by ancient viral antagonists, and that the HIV-1 Vpu protein has specialized to target the transmembrane domains found in human/chimpanzee tetherin proteins

Species-Specific Activity of SIV Nef and HIV-1 Vpu in Overcoming Restriction by Tetherin/BST2

Tetherin, also known as BST2, CD317 or HM1.24, was recently identified as an interferon-inducible host–cell factor that interferes with the detachment of virus particles from infected cells. HIV-1 overcomes this restriction by expressing an accessory protein, Vpu, which counteracts tetherin. Since lentiviruses of the SIVsmm/mac/HIV-2 lineage do not have a vpu gene, this activity has likely been assumed by other viral gene products. We found that deletion of the SIVmac239 nef gene significantly impaired virus release in cells expressing rhesus macaque tetherin. Virus release could be restored by expressing Nef in trans. However, Nef was unable to facilitate virus release in the presence of human tetherin. Conversely, Vpu enhanced virus release in the presence of human tetherin, but not in the presence of rhesus tetherin. In accordance with the species-specificity of Nef in mediating virus release, SIV Nef downregulated cell-surface expression of rhesus tetherin, but did not downregulate human tetherin. The specificity of SIV Nef for rhesus tetherin mapped to four amino acids in the cytoplasmic domain of the molecule that are missing from human tetherin, whereas the specificity of Vpu for human tetherin mapped to amino acid differences in the transmembrane domain. Nef alleles of SIVsmm, HIV-2 and HIV-1 were also able to rescue virus release in the presence of both rhesus macaque and sooty mangabey tetherin, but were generally ineffective against human tetherin. Thus, the ability of Nef to antagonize tetherin from these Old World primates appears to be conserved among the primate lentiviruses. These results identify Nef as the viral gene product of SIV that opposes restriction by tetherin in rhesus macaques and sooty mangabeys, and reveal species-specificity in the activities of both Nef and Vpu in overcoming tetherin in their respective hosts

Gender and trade in Africa: Case study of Niger

The evidence on the impact of trade liberalization on gender inequalities is not fully established yet, nor is the impact of gender inequalities on trade policy outcomes. Sociocultural norms, legal barriers, and socioeconomic disadvantages are the main gender-based discrimination that affect the distribution of trade benefits between men and women. This study applied to Niger assesses the distributional effects of trade reforms between men and women and sheds light on the impact of gender-based barriers on the outcome of trade reforms. The Common External Tariff (CET) of the Economic Community of West African States has guided Niger’s trade policy since its implementation in 2015. Thus, the study essentially assesses the impact of the CET reform on gender inequalities in Niger. Focusing on employment levels and earnings, the study finds an increased gender gap under the CET implementation, although the custom union reform leads to positive outcomes for both men and women compared to the baseline. Moreover, gender inequalities result in misallocation of resources in the economy and lead to a loss in economic opportunity for Niger. Thus, closing the gender gap in access to productive resources is likely to generate positive outcomes for Niger.Non-PRCRP2; IFPRI1; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; G Cross-cutting gender theme; ReSAKSSAFR; MTID; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM