Trademark and patent applications are structurally near-identical and cointegrated: Implications for studies in innovation

Objective. This paper seeks to test the existence of a “long-run” equilibrium (LRE) dynamic between trademarks and patents, as it would suggest that similar exogenous pressures concomitantly drive these metrics. The restraint in the divergence of the two indices supports an important aspect of the Innovation Agenda, a normative intellectual property (IP)-centric model of the firm, whereby the corporate strategy of science and technology firms is defined by constructing and communicating IP. Design/Methodology/Approach. Empirical analysis using descriptive statistics, wavelet, cointegration, and structural break analysis is applied to monthly US trademark and patent applications from 1977-2016 to test the potential for LRE. Results/Discussion. This work finds that the indices have similar (identical) structural attributes (including distribution characteristics, seasonal variation, and short-term cross-periodicity) and are cointegrated (I(1)). Further, structural breakpoints were (near) simultaneous (Trademarks: 1987, 1993, 1999, 2005, 2011; Patents: 1988, 1994, 2000, and 2011). A discussion of potential triggers causing these breaks and the concept of equilibrium in the context of these proxy measures is presented. Conclusions. From the study, likely, US trademark and patent applications are intimately linked; thus, increasing the likelihood that the Innovation Agenda may correctly capture at least one aspect of the firm. As a corollary, this work further supports the inclusion of trademark analysis in innovation studies. The limitations of the approach including study design are presented. Originality/Value. To the author’s knowledge, the existence of an LRE of trademarks and patents in the framework of the Innovation Agenda is a novel contribution

Leveraging latent persistency in the United States patent and trademark applications to gain insight into the evolution of an innovation-driven economy

Objective: An understanding of when one or more external factors may influence the evolution of innovation tracking indices (such as US patent and trademark applications (PTA)) is an important aspect of examining economic progress/regress. Using exploratory statistics, the analysis uses a novel tool to leverage the long-range dependency (LRD) intrinsic to PTA to resolve when such factor(s) may have caused significant disruptions in the evolution of the indices, and thus give insight into substantive economic growth dynamics. Approach: This paper explores the use of the Chronological Hurst Exponent (CHE) to explore the LRD using overlapping time windows to quantify long-memory dynamics in the monthly PTA time-series spanning 1977 to 2016. Results/Discussion: The CHE is found to increase in a clear S-curve pattern, achieving persistence (H~1) from non-persistence (H~0.5). For patents, the inflection occurred over a span of 10 years (1980-1990), while it was much sharper (3 years) for trademarks (1977-1980). Conclusions/Originality/Value: This analysis suggests (in part) that the rapid augmentation in R&D expenditure and the introduction of the various patent directed policy acts (e.g., Bayh-Dole, Stevenson-Wydler) are the key impetuses behind persistency, latent in PTA. The post-1990’s  exogenic factors seem to be simply maintaining the high degree and consistency of the persistency metric. These findings suggest investigators should consider latent persistency when using these data and the CHE may be an important tool to investigate the impact of substantive exogenous variables on growth dynamics

The Impact of US Medical Product Regulatory Complexity on Innovation: Preliminary Evidence of Interdependence, Early Acceleration, and Subsequent Inversion

Is the complexity of medical product (medicines and medical devices) regulation impacting innovation in the US? If so, how? Here, this question is investigated as follows: Various novel proxy metrics of regulation (FDA-issued guidelines) and innovation (corresponding FDA-registrations) from 1976-2020 are used to determine interdependence, a concept relying on strong correlation and reciprocal causality (estimated via variable lag transfer entropy and wavelet coherence). Based on this interdependence, a mapping of regulation onto innovation is conducted and finds that regulation seems to accelerate then supports innovation until on or around 2015; at which time, an inverted U-curve emerged. If empirically evidentiary, an important innovation-regulation nexus in the US has been reached; and, as such, stakeholders should (re)consider the complexity of the regulatory landscape to enhance US medical product innovation. Study limitations, extensions, and further thoughts complete this investigation.Comment: 53 pages (from Title Page to References), 6 Tables, 9 Figures. Pharm Res (2023

Singular Secular Kuznets-like Period Realized Amid Industrial Transformation in US FDA Medical Devices: A Perspective on Innovation from 1976 to 2020

Introduction: Since inception, the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has kept a robust record of regulated medical devices (MDs). Based on these data, can we gain insight into the innovation dynamics of the industry, including the potential for industrial transformation? Areas Covered: Using Premarket Notifications (PMNs) and Approvals (PMAs) data, it is shown that from 1976 to 2020 the total composite (PMN + PMA) metric follows a single secular period: 20.5 years (applications peak-to-peak: 1992-2012; trough: 2002) and 26.5 years (registrations peak to peak: 1992 to 2019; trough: 2003), with a peak to trough relative percentage difference of 24% and 28%, respectively. Importantly, PMNs and PMAs independently present as an inverse structure. Expert Opinion: The evidence suggests: MD innovation is driven by a singular secular Kutnets-like cyclic phenomenon (independent of economic crises) derived from a fundamental shift from simple (PMNs) to complex (PMAs) MDs. Portentously, while the COVID-19 crisis may not affect the overriding dynamic, the anticipated yet significant (~25%) MD innovation drop may be potentially attenuated with attentive measures by MD stakeholders. Limitations of this approach and further thoughts complete this perspective

Leveraging latent persistency in the United States patent and trademark applications to gain insight into the evolution of an innovation-driven economy

Objective: An understanding of when one or more external factors may influence the evolution of innovation tracking indices (such as US patent and trademark applications (PTA)) is an important aspect of examining economic progress/regress. Using exploratory statistics, the analysis uses a novel tool to leverage the long-range dependency (LRD) intrinsic to PTA to resolve when such factor(s) may have caused significant disruptions in the evolution of the indices, and thus give insight into substantive economic growth dynamics. Approach: This paper explores the use of the Chronological Hurst Exponent (CHE) to explore the LRD using overlapping time windows to quantify long-memory dynamics in the monthly PTA time-series spanning 1977 to 2016. Results/Discussion: The CHE is found to increase in a clear S-curve pattern, achieving persistence (H~1) from non-persistence (H~0.5). For patents, the inflection occurred over a span of 10 years (1980-1990), while it was much sharper (3 years) for trademarks (1977-1980). Conclusions/Originality/Value: This analysis suggests (in part) that the rapid augmentation in R&D expenditure and the introduction of the various patent directed policy acts (e.g., Bayh-Dole, Stevenson-Wydler) are the key impetuses behind persistency, latent in PTA. The post-1990’s  exogenic factors seem to be simply maintaining the high degree and consistency of the persistency metric. These findings suggest investigators should consider latent persistency when using these data and the CHE may be an important tool to investigate the impact of substantive exogenous variables on growth dynamics

Trademark and patent applications are structurally near-identical and cointegrated: Implications for studies in innovation

Objective. This paper seeks to test the existence of a “long-run” equilibrium (LRE) dynamic between trademarks and patents, as it would suggest that similar exogenous pressures concomitantly drive these metrics. The restraint in the divergence of the two indices supports an important aspect of the Innovation Agenda, a normative intellectual property (IP)-centric model of the firm, whereby the corporate strategy of science and technology firms is defined by constructing and communicating IP. Design/Methodology/Approach. Empirical analysis using descriptive statistics, wavelet, cointegration, and structural break analysis is applied to monthly US trademark and patent applications from 1977-2016 to test the potential for LRE. Results/Discussion. This work finds that the indices have similar (identical) structural attributes (including distribution characteristics, seasonal variation, and short-term cross-periodicity) and are cointegrated (I(1)). Further, structural breakpoints were (near) simultaneous (Trademarks: 1987, 1993, 1999, 2005, 2011; Patents: 1988, 1994, 2000, and 2011). A discussion of potential triggers causing these breaks and the concept of equilibrium in the context of these proxy measures is presented. Conclusions. From the study, likely, US trademark and patent applications are intimately linked; thus, increasing the likelihood that the Innovation Agenda may correctly capture at least one aspect of the firm. As a corollary, this work further supports the inclusion of trademark analysis in innovation studies. The limitations of the approach including study design are presented. Originality/Value. To the author’s knowledge, the existence of an LRE of trademarks and patents in the framework of the Innovation Agenda is a novel contribution