Volatility forecasting in the Bitcoin market: A new proposed measure based on the VS-ACARR approach

This paper proposes a new volatility-spillover-asymmetric conditional autoregressive range (VS-ACARR) approach that takes into account the intraday information, the volatility spillover from crude oil as well as the volatility asymmetry (leverage effect) to model/forecast Bitcoin volatility (price range). An empirical application to Bitcoin and crude oil (WTI) price ranges shows the existence of strong volatility spillover from crude oil to the Bitcoin market and a weak leverage effect in the Bitcoin market. The VS-ACARR model yields higher forecasting accuracy than the GARCH, CARR, and VS-CARR models regarding out-of-sample forecast performance, suggesting that accounting for the volatility spillover and asymmetry can significantly improve the forecasting accuracy of Bitcoin volatility. The superior forecast performance of the VS-ACARR model is robust to alternative out-of-sample forecast windows. Our findings highlight the importance of accommodating intraday information, spillover from crude oil, and volatility asymmetry in forecasting Bitcoin volatility

Patterns of unconventional monetary policy spillovers during a systemic crisis

We examine whether the COVID-19 pandemic-induced systemic shocks cause a change in the dynamics of monetary policy spillovers among developed economies. Results from our analysis under the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model indicate that: (i) variations in monetary policy actions are explained by monetary policy spillovers; (ii) shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic rocketed monetary policy spillovers; (iii) the Euro area and the US chiefly propagate monetary policy shocks to their counterpart developed economies; and (iv) New Zealand and Japan endure the highest monetary policy shocks. Our results evidence the need for synchronized monetary policy actions during systemic crises

Financial Development and International Trade inside Asia

This study attempts to document the impact of "Financial development" on international trade between selected Asian economies and rest of the Asian region. Financial development index is used to represent financial development level which includes four dimensions from two perspectives; institutional and market. An "overall financial development index" is calculated by combining institutional and market level financial development indices. Effect of market and institutional dimension is measured separately on international trade of Asian economies with rest of the Asia. Different macro-variables are controlled including GDP per capita, total population, Inward FDI flow, Outward FDI flow and real effective exchange rates for modeling. Sample includes data for twenty years ranging from 1997-2016 for 16 large economies of Asia. Panel data modeling technique "fixed effects regression" is used with two different proxies of dependent variable. "Overall financial development" is found to have positive and significant relationship with international trade. Study confirms the robustness of the results to different measures of international trade. Results from fixed effects model confirm positive and significant relationship between all components of financial development and international trade, and between overall financial development and international trade in Asian economies. Singapore, Japan and South Korea represent highest levels of financial development while other countries showed relatively less development financial development level according to measure used in this study. An important policy implication is if a country wants to grow economically by using instrument of trade policy especially exports improvement, then it has to develop its financial system to efficiently fulfill "international trade finance" needs. Keywords: Financial Development Index, International Trade, Asia DOI: 10.7176/EJBM/11-11-04 Publication date: April 30th 201

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Green synthesis and characterization of carboxymethyl guar gum: Application in textile printing technology

This study focusses on the synthesis of carboxymethyl guar gum (CMG) via monochloroacetic acid under alkaline conditions. The reaction conditions were also optimized during the course of experiment. Guar derivative with variable degree of substitution (DS) were prepared and were confirmed by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The DS was determined quantitatively by titration method for each derivative. The synthesized guar gum derivatives, being the natural thickners, have been used in textile printing technology. Substituted guar gum has been proved environmental friendly thickener as compared to synthetic thickeners. Penetration properties, fixation ability, colour fastness, levelness and fabric handling was compared with alginate thickener (commercially available). Guar gum thickeners showed enhanced properties versus alginate thickener and can be used as an alternative to synthetic thickeners in view of its green, non-hazardous and economical derivatives. Guar gum is the outstanding natural thickener, stabilizer, gelling agent and could possibly be used in various industrial units including food, cosmetic, textile, oil fracturing and mining

The cryptocurrency environmental attention and green bond connectedness

We study the dynamic connectedness between green bonds and the cryptocurrency environmental attention index (ICEA), using the TVP-VAR methodology. The spillovers increase with the level of environmental attention, suggesting cross-market activism by green investors. Denmark, the Euro area, Hong Kong, Australia, and the US are the source of spillovers, while Japan, the UK, and Switzerland are major recipients. The return spillovers exceed volatility spillovers and rise in strength during COVID-19 and the geopolitics-induced military hostilities in Ukraine. Several imperative implications of the findings are notable for policymakers, market participants, and practitioners

The term structure of yield curve and connectedness among ESG investments

We examine the connectedness of different components of the US treasury\u27s term structure with ESG (Environment, Social, and Governance) leader indices regarding return and volatility. The EMU (Economic and Monetary Union) and the UK lie at the center of the network. The connectedness is time-varying and versatile regarding return- and volatility spillovers and various components of the US treasury yield curve. The long-term rates influence returns, whereas the short- and medium-term are dominant regarding volatility spillovers. Interestingly, both return- and volatility spillovers from the yield curve components change behaviors/directions during the GFC and COVID-19. Importantly, long-term interest rates are significant shock transmitters during times of stress. Our findings have implications for ESG investors, who should keep in mind the shape of the yield curve while making portfolio choices and investment-horizon decisions

Does social responsibility increase corporate value of China’s coal enterprises? The mediating effect of capital enrichment based on the generalized moment estimation

In the context of the new normal in China’s economy, the development of coal enterprises continues to be sluggish, and their social responsibility issues have received increased attention from all walks of life. The stakeholder model of social responsibility was constructed based on the stakeholder theory to reveal the influence of social responsibility on the corporate value in the Chinese coal sector and their transmission mechanism. The panel data of coal enterprises in Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchanges from 2011 to 2019 was used to employ the system GMM (Generalized Moment Estimation) and the mediating effect model for empirical research. The results show that social responsibility has a positive influence over corporate value, and the impact of social responsibility on corporate value is heterogeneous for stakeholders in different dimensions. Social responsibility towards employees, shareholders, creditors, resources, and the environment has the greatest contribution to corporate value. Additionally, capital enrichment plays a mediating role in this effect, which enhances the positive impact of social responsibility on corporate value. Such findings reveal the transmission mechanism of social responsibility on corporate value and provide policy suggestions for coal enterprises to promote their sustainable development, which is beneficial for the national energy security and strategy