A Trip to Al Aber , Quati state, Hadramaut, Eastern Aden protectorate

Volume: XX

Notes on two East African venomous snake populations-Echis Carinatus Pyramidum (Geoffroy), Egyptian saw-scaled viper and vipera hindii Boulenger, Montane viper

Volume: XX

Statistical Inference for Multi-Pathogen Systems

There is growing interest in understanding the nature and consequences of interactions among infectious agents. Pathogen interactions can be operational at different scales, either within a co-infected host or in host populations where they co-circulate, and can be either cooperative or competitive. The detection of interactions among pathogens has typically involved the study of synchrony in the oscillations of the protagonists, but as we show here, phase association provides an unreliable dynamical fingerprint for this task. We assess the capacity of a likelihood-based inference framework to accurately detect and quantify the presence and nature of pathogen interactions on the basis of realistic amounts and kinds of simulated data. We show that when epidemiological and demographic processes are well understood, noisy time series data can contain sufficient information to allow correct inference of interactions in multi-pathogen systems. The inference power is dependent on the strength and time-course of the underlying mechanism: stronger and longer-lasting interactions are more easily and more precisely quantified. We examine the limitations of our approach to stochastic temporal variation, under-reporting, and over-aggregation of data. We propose that likelihood shows promise as a basis for detection and quantification of the effects of pathogen interactions and the determination of their (competitive or cooperative) nature on the basis of population-level time-series data

Forcing Versus Feedback: Epidemic Malaria and Monsoon Rains in Northwest India

Malaria epidemics in regions with seasonal windows of transmission can vary greatly in size from year to year. A central question has been whether these interannual cycles are driven by climate, are instead generated by the intrinsic dynamics of the disease, or result from the resonance of these two mechanisms. This corresponds to the more general inverse problem of identifying the respective roles of external forcings vs. internal feedbacks from time series for nonlinear and noisy systems. We propose here a quantitative approach to formally compare rival hypotheses on climate vs. disease dynamics, or external forcings vs. internal feedbacks, that combines dynamical models with recently developed, computational inference methods. The interannual patterns of epidemic malaria are investigated here for desert regions of northwest India, with extensive epidemiological records for Plasmodium falciparum malaria for the past two decades. We formulate a dynamical model of malaria transmission that explicitly incorporates rainfall, and we rely on recent advances on parameter estimation for nonlinear and stochastic dynamical systems based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. Results show a significant effect of rainfall in the inter-annual variability of epidemic malaria that involves a threshold in the disease response. The model exhibits high prediction skill for yearly cases in the malaria transmission season following the monsoonal rains. Consideration of a more complex model with clinical immunity demonstrates the robustness of the findings and suggests a role of infected individuals that lack clinical symptoms as a reservoir for transmission. Our results indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of the disease itself play a role at the seasonal, but not the interannual, time scales. They illustrate the feasibility of forecasting malaria epidemics in desert and semi-arid regions of India based on climate variability. This approach should be applicable to malaria in other locations, to other infectious diseases, and to other nonlinear systems under forcing

EPHA2 Is Associated with Age-Related Cortical Cataract in Mice and Humans

Age-related cataract is a major cause of blindness worldwide, and cortical cataract is the second most prevalent type of age-related cataract. Although a significant fraction of age-related cataract is heritable, the genetic basis remains to be elucidated. We report that homozygous deletion of Epha2 in two independent strains of mice developed progressive cortical cataract. Retroillumination revealed development of cortical vacuoles at one month of age; visible cataract appeared around three months, which progressed to mature cataract by six months. EPHA2 protein expression in the lens is spatially and temporally regulated. It is low in anterior epithelial cells, upregulated as the cells enter differentiation at the equator, strongly expressed in the cortical fiber cells, but absent in the nuclei. Deletion of Epha2 caused a significant increase in the expression of HSP25 (murine homologue of human HSP27) before the onset of cataract. The overexpressed HSP25 was in an underphosphorylated form, indicating excessive cellular stress and protein misfolding. The orthologous human EPHA2 gene on chromosome 1p36 was tested in three independent worldwide Caucasian populations for allelic association with cortical cataract. Common variants in EPHA2 were found that showed significant association with cortical cataract, and rs6678616 was the most significant in meta-analyses. In addition, we sequenced exons of EPHA2 in linked families and identified a new missense mutation, Arg721Gln, in the protein kinase domain that significantly alters EPHA2 functions in cellular and biochemical assays. Thus, converging evidence from humans and mice suggests that EPHA2 is important in maintaining lens clarity with age

Part II. Notes on the Yellow-Backed Duiker

Volume: XI