Plug-and-play inference for disease dynamics: measles in large and small populations as a case study

Statistical inference for mechanistic models of partially observed dynamic systems is an active area of research. Most existing inference methods place substantial restrictions upon the form of models that can be fitted and hence upon the nature of the scientific hypotheses that can be entertained and the data that can be used to evaluate them. In contrast, the so-called plug-and-play methods require only simulations from a model and are thus free of such restrictions. We show the utility of the plug-and-play approach in the context of an investigation of measles transmission dynamics. Our novel methodology enables us to ask and answer questions that previous analyses have been unable to address. Specifically, we demonstrate that plug-and-play methods permit the development of a modelling and inference framework applicable to data from both large and small populations. We thereby obtain novel insights into the nature of heterogeneity in mixing and comment on the importance of including extra-demographic stochasticity as a means of dealing with environmental stochasticity and model misspecification. Our approach is readily applicable to many other epidemiological and ecological systems

Remediation of the protein data bank archive

The Worldwide Protein Data Bank (wwPDB; wwpdb.org) is the international collaboration that manages the deposition, processing and distribution of the PDB archive. The online PDB archive at ftp://ftp.wwpdb.org is the repository for the coordinates and related information for more than 47 000 structures, including proteins, nucleic acids and large macromolecular complexes that have been determined using X-ray crystallography, NMR and electron microscopy techniques. The members of the wwPDB–RCSB PDB (USA), MSD-EBI (Europe), PDBj (Japan) and BMRB (USA)–have remediated this archive to address inconsistencies that have been introduced over the years. The scope and methods used in this project are presented

Statistical Inference for Multi-Pathogen Systems

There is growing interest in understanding the nature and consequences of interactions among infectious agents. Pathogen interactions can be operational at different scales, either within a co-infected host or in host populations where they co-circulate, and can be either cooperative or competitive. The detection of interactions among pathogens has typically involved the study of synchrony in the oscillations of the protagonists, but as we show here, phase association provides an unreliable dynamical fingerprint for this task. We assess the capacity of a likelihood-based inference framework to accurately detect and quantify the presence and nature of pathogen interactions on the basis of realistic amounts and kinds of simulated data. We show that when epidemiological and demographic processes are well understood, noisy time series data can contain sufficient information to allow correct inference of interactions in multi-pathogen systems. The inference power is dependent on the strength and time-course of the underlying mechanism: stronger and longer-lasting interactions are more easily and more precisely quantified. We examine the limitations of our approach to stochastic temporal variation, under-reporting, and over-aggregation of data. We propose that likelihood shows promise as a basis for detection and quantification of the effects of pathogen interactions and the determination of their (competitive or cooperative) nature on the basis of population-level time-series data

Forcing Versus Feedback: Epidemic Malaria and Monsoon Rains in Northwest India

Malaria epidemics in regions with seasonal windows of transmission can vary greatly in size from year to year. A central question has been whether these interannual cycles are driven by climate, are instead generated by the intrinsic dynamics of the disease, or result from the resonance of these two mechanisms. This corresponds to the more general inverse problem of identifying the respective roles of external forcings vs. internal feedbacks from time series for nonlinear and noisy systems. We propose here a quantitative approach to formally compare rival hypotheses on climate vs. disease dynamics, or external forcings vs. internal feedbacks, that combines dynamical models with recently developed, computational inference methods. The interannual patterns of epidemic malaria are investigated here for desert regions of northwest India, with extensive epidemiological records for Plasmodium falciparum malaria for the past two decades. We formulate a dynamical model of malaria transmission that explicitly incorporates rainfall, and we rely on recent advances on parameter estimation for nonlinear and stochastic dynamical systems based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. Results show a significant effect of rainfall in the inter-annual variability of epidemic malaria that involves a threshold in the disease response. The model exhibits high prediction skill for yearly cases in the malaria transmission season following the monsoonal rains. Consideration of a more complex model with clinical immunity demonstrates the robustness of the findings and suggests a role of infected individuals that lack clinical symptoms as a reservoir for transmission. Our results indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of the disease itself play a role at the seasonal, but not the interannual, time scales. They illustrate the feasibility of forecasting malaria epidemics in desert and semi-arid regions of India based on climate variability. This approach should be applicable to malaria in other locations, to other infectious diseases, and to other nonlinear systems under forcing

Intraoperative complications of cataract surgery in the very old

AIM: To identify whether the risk of an intraoperative complication of phakoemulsification cataract surgery increases with age. METHODS: 1441 consecutive patients undergoing phakoemulsification cataract surgery were assessed preoperatively, and data on the occurrence of intraoperative complications were collected prospectively. Data were entered into a computerised database, and logistic regression was used to examine evidence of an association between age and the risk of an intraoperative complication. In addition, the rates of intraoperative complications were compared between patients ⩾88 years and those <88 years, and between patients ⩾96 years and those <96 years. RESULTS: No significant association was found between age and the risk of an intraoperative complication. The authors found little evidence that patients ⩾88 years were at a greater risk of an intraoperative complication than those <88 years, or that those ⩾96 years are at increased risk; however, numbers were small. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that age alone is not a major risk factor for any intraoperative complications occurring during phakoemulsification cataract surgery. This has implications not just for tailoring the risk of complications occurring to individual patients but also for meaningful comparisons between national complication rates and those of individual surgeons, and better selection of cases suitable for instruction