Shaping macro economy in response to COVID-19 in Kenya : a responsible economic stimulus and a stable financial sector

Kenya experienced overall macro stability and modest growth of 5.5% for the period 2017 to 2019. The onset of COVID 19 pandemic in March 2020 however subdued the economy owing to swift containment measures that were imposed to limit the spread of the pandemic. As a result, Kenya suffered its first recession in nearly two decades. The government responded fast by instituting a broad range of macroeconomic policy interventions. It launched the 8-Point Economic Stimulus Programme targeted towards building back a better and resilient economy. This policy was chosen to estimate the socio-economic effects of the stimulus. Using available evidence of fiscal multipliers, we came up with three scenarios: (i) untargeted total expansionary fiscal stimulus and (ii) targeted sectoral public spending and (iii) hypothetical reallocation to targeted sectoral with high multiplier effect. Results of the scenario building exercise highlight that fiscal stimulus could contribute to Kenya’s growth over the short-term, but the impact greatly improves if measures are targeted to sectors with higher multiplier effects. In medium to long term, focus on environment and green investment could result to higher socio-economic effects.Overseas Development Institute (ODI

Taxation, Government Spending and Economic Growth

Amidst the debates about ‘austerity’, a number of vital debates in public finance have been sidelined. Since the reductions in government spending – small though they have been so far — have been designed solely to reduce the government’s borrowing requirement, there has been little discussion of whether the size of the state should be reduced in order to facilitate long-run reductions in the burden of taxation. This book traces the history of the growth of the size of the state over the last 100 years whilst also making international comparisons. There is a particular focus on recent and projected future developments which shows that, though the total level of government spending has not decreased significantly in recent years, there has been a big redirection of spending from some areas to others.The authors then examine the evidence on the relationship between taxation and economic growth. As well as reviewing recent literature, they also undertake new modelling which shows that higher taxes are detrimental for growth.In the final part of the book, the whole UK tax system is reconsidered in a proper economic framework. The UK has one of the world’s most complex tax systems, and its incoherence has increased over the last five years. Sweeping reforms are proposed to the system which would involve abolishing around 20 taxes, and the development of a simple, predictable tax system based on principles that should gain wide acceptance

Simulation Exercises for the Teaching of Planning: The Example of Ruritania

SUMMARY This article outlines experience with the use of a simulation exercise in teaching development planning. Two years of using the exercise has shown that simulation is an invaluable aid, especially in the teaching of planning, and has revealed what is essentially wrong with most planning textbooks. RESUME Exercices de simulation pour I'enseignement de la planification: exemple de la Ruritanie Cet article est au sujet de l'expérience qui a été faite de l'utilisation d'un exercise de simulation pour l'enseignement de la planification du développement. Après deux années, cet exercice a montré que la simulation est une aide extrêmement précieuse, surtout dans l'enseignement de la planification, et il a servi à mettre en évidence ce qui ne va pas dans la plupart des manuels de planification. RESUMEN Ejercicios simulados para la ensenanza de la planificación: El ejemplo de Ruritania Este artículo esboza la experiencia obtenida por el uso de un ejercicio simulado para la enseñanza de la planificación de desarrollo. Después de usar el ejercicio durante dos años se ha demostrado que la simulación resulta una ayuda valiosa, especialmente con la enseñanza de la planificación, y ha demostrado en dónde se equivocan la mayor parte de los libros de texto sobre el tema

Evaluating quality of contraceptive counseling: An analysis of the method information index

The Method Information Index (MII) is calculated from contraceptive users\u27 responses to questions regarding counseling content-whether they were informed about methods other than the one they received, told about method-specific side effects, and advised what to do if they experienced side effects. The MII is increasingly reported in national surveys and used to track program performance, but little is known about its properties. Using additional questions, we assessed the consistency between responses and the method received in a prospective, multicountry study. We employed two definitions of consistency: (1) presence of any concordant response, and (2) absence of discordant responses. Consistency was high when asking whether users were informed about other methods and what to do about side effects. Responses were least consistent when asking whether side effects were mentioned. Adjusting for inconsistency, scores were up to 50 percent and 30 percent lower in Pakistan and Uganda, respectively, compared to unadjusted MII scores. Additional questions facilitated better understanding of counseling quality

Rural to Urban Migration and Changes in Cardiovascular risk Factors in Tanzania: A Prospective Cohort Study.

High levels of rural to urban migration are a feature of most African countries. Our aim was to investigate changes, and their determinants, in cardiovascular risk factors on rural to urban migration in Tanzania. Men and women (15 to 59 years) intending to migrate from Morogoro rural region to Dar es Salaam for at least 6 months were identified. Measurements were made at least one week but no more than one month prior to migration, and 1 to 3 monthly after migration. Outcome measures included body mass index, blood pressure, fasting lipids, and self reported physical activity and diet. One hundred and three men, 106 women, mean age 29 years, were recruited and 132 (63.2%) followed to 12 months. All the figures presented here refer to the difference between baseline and 12 months in these 132 individuals. Vigorous physical activity declined (79.4% to 26.5% in men, 37.8% to 15.6% in women, p < 0.001), and weight increased (2.30 kg men, 2.35 kg women, p < 0.001). Intake of red meat increased, but so did the intake of fresh fruit and vegetables. HDL cholesterol increased in men and women (0.24, 0.25 mmoll-1 respectively, p < 0.001); and in men, not women, total cholesterol increased (0.42 mmoll-1, p = 0.01), and triglycerides fell (0.31 mmoll-1, p = 0.034). Blood pressure appeared to fall in both men and women. For example, in men systolic blood pressure fell by 5.4 mmHg, p = 0.007, and in women by 8.6 mmHg, p = 0.001. The lower level of physical activity and increasing weight will increase the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. However, changes in diet were mixed, and may have contributed to mixed changes in lipid profiles and a lack of rise in blood pressure. A better understanding of the changes occurring on rural to urban migration is needed to guide preventive measures

Estimate of vertical transmission of Hepatitis C virus in Pakistan in 2007 and 2012 birth cohorts.

Despite a combination of high Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence, a large adult population and high fertility, no published estimates of the scale and contribution of vertical transmission to HCV incidence in Pakistan exist. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of new HCV infections occurring in Pakistan as a result of vertical transmission. We adapted a published mathematical model based on HCV antibody and viraemia prevalence, fertility rates, risk of HCV vertical transmission and children mortality rates to estimate the number of infections in the 2007 and 2012 birth cohorts nationally and in four subnational regions. We estimated that 19 708 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 15 941-23 819) children were vertically infected by HCV in 2007 and 21 676 (95% UI: 17 498-26 126) in 2012. The majority of these cases (72.9% and 72.5% in 2007 and 2012, respectively) occurred in Punjab. We estimated that vertical transmission as a mode of exposure accounted for a quarter of HCV infections among children under 5 years of age (25.2% in 2007 and 24.0% in 2012). CONCLUSION: Our results showed that one in 260 children born in Pakistan in 2007 and 2012 acquired HCV vertically. While currently no interventions during pregnancy and childbirth are recommended to reduce this risk, prevention, testing and treatment strategies should be considered to reduce the burden of vertical HCV infections among young children. Other routes of transmission appear to contribute the majority of HCV infections among children and must also be clarified and urgently addressed

Estimate of vertical transmission of Hepatitis C virus in Pakistan in 2007 and 2012 birth cohorts.

Despite a combination of high Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence, a large adult population and high fertility, no published estimates of the scale and contribution of vertical transmission to HCV incidence in Pakistan exist. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of new HCV infections occurring in Pakistan as a result of vertical transmission. We adapted a published mathematical model based on HCV antibody and viraemia prevalence, fertility rates, risk of HCV vertical transmission and children mortality rates to estimate the number of infections in the 2007 and 2012 birth cohorts nationally and in four subnational regions. We estimated that 19 708 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 15 941-23 819) children were vertically infected by HCV in 2007 and 21 676 (95% UI: 17 498-26 126) in 2012. The majority of these cases (72.9% and 72.5% in 2007 and 2012, respectively) occurred in Punjab. We estimated that vertical transmission as a mode of exposure accounted for a quarter of HCV infections among children under 5 years of age (25.2% in 2007 and 24.0% in 2012). CONCLUSION: Our results showed that one in 260 children born in Pakistan in 2007 and 2012 acquired HCV vertically. While currently no interventions during pregnancy and childbirth are recommended to reduce this risk, prevention, testing and treatment strategies should be considered to reduce the burden of vertical HCV infections among young children. Other routes of transmission appear to contribute the majority of HCV infections among children and must also be clarified and urgently addressed

Quasi-Experimental Analysis of Targeted Economic Development Programs: Lessons from Florida

The authors highlight three sources of endogeneity bias that typically haunt analyses of local government policies, and offer an empirical methodology for estimating program impacts given such concerns. They investigate Florida’s experience with implementing two common targeted economic development policies, community redevelopment areas (CRAs) and enterprise zones (EZs). Developing a simple application decision model as a guide, they find significant differences in policy implementation for small cities compared with larger cities. Florida’s small-city program implementation offers a unique opportunity to compare areas that received state-level approval for the programs with all areas that qualified for but did not receive designation using a quasi-experimental framework. In so doing, the authors explicitly address the potential for endogeneity bias caused by programrationing on the part of administrators and by nonrandom targeting of distressed areas. Consistent with existing research, they do not find evidence validating the efficacy of targeted development programs for small cities.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Subnational home market bias in Vietnam: Evidence from enterprise‐level data

This paper contributes to the home (market) bias literature where administrative or political borders limit trade across borders. Home bias is well documented at the national and subnational level. To sort out macro (e.g., location characteristics) and micro (e.g., enterprise characteristics) factors behind home bias, we use small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) data from Vietnam. Using the fractional multinomial logit model, we find that the proportion of SME sales outside of their home markets is positively associated with enterprise size, age, number of business association memberships and the distance of SMEs\u27 most important supplier. In contrast, the proportion of SME sales to neighbouring provinces is negatively associated with the share of SME production for final consumption. Besides enterprise‐level frictions, market characteristics matter too. The proportion of SME sales to customers in their home markets is negatively associated with home or neighbouring provinces\u27 governance quality, while the proportion of sales to customers in neighbouring provinces is positively associated with these areas\u27 governance quality. These suggest that good governance frees SME resources for use in selling to less familiar markets

African Dreams: Locating Urban Infrastructure in the 2030 Sustainable Developmental Agenda

This paper examines African urban infrastructure and service delivery as an entry point for connecting African aspirations with the harsh developmental imperatives of urban management, creating a dialogue between scholarly knowledge and sustainable development policy aspirations. We note a shift to multi-nodal urban governance and highlight the significance of the synthesis of social, economic and ecological values in a normative vision of what an African metropolis might aspire to by 2030. The sustainable development vision provides a useful stimulus for Africa’s urban poly-crisis, demanding fresh interdisciplinary and normatively explicit thinking, grounded in a practical and realistic understanding of Africa’s infrastructure and governance challenges