Monitoring Macroeconomic Imbalances: Is EU SurveillanceMore Effective than IMF surveillance?

The paper examines the macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP) with the purpose of assessing its potential effectiveness compared to International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance. The comparison reveals that the MIP performs better than the Fund\u2019s surveillance in terms of the provision of clear and practical advice, knowledge of domestic polities and ease of activating sanctions. Neither the MIP nor the IMF, however, provide for mechanisms to prevent political considerations from interfering with the activation of sanctions and the distribution of the burden of adjustment. The MIP also does not attenuate problems of asymmetric treatment that create the conditions for public backlashes. Its single-country focus and the limited integration of macroeconomic and financial analysis are further factors that may undermine the effectiveness of the MIP. In the conclusions, the paper reflects on the factors that may help explain the limited incorporation of the lessons available from the Fund\u2019s experience into the MIP

Trends and Impacts of Real and Financial Globalization in the People's Republic of China and India since the 1980s

The dynamic process of integration of national economies has a long history, with two distinct waves: one, from the middle of the 19th century until its interruption with outbreak of the First World War in 1913 till the end of the Second World War in 1945. The second wave is ongoing dating from 1950. Two sub-processes of integration are usually distinguished. The first, called real integration related to flows of goods, services and factors across borders; the second called financial integration related to financial flows of claims on the nominal returns on financial assets. Financial integration has had a checkered history. Private financial flows, particularly debt flows, were evident in the first wave. During the second wave, debt flows, both intergovernmental and private banking lending were dominant during 1950–1980. Only after 1980, private non-debt flows particularly equity flows accelerated. This paper's primary focus is on the real and financial integration and their impact on trade, growth and poverty in the world's two dominant developing countries in emerging markets, namely the People's Republic of China (PRC) and India. The paper also discusses the reforms of institutional (domestic and multinational) foundations of real and financial integration, particularly the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Group of 20. The impacts of the 2008–2009 financial crisis on the PRC and India are noted and the need for domestic financial sector reforms in both for them to cope with and respond to future financial crises is pointed out. Attention is drawn to the inadequacy of available analytical tools, in particular the absence of an appropriately integrated model of real and financial sectors to enable a meaningful assessment of the impact of financial shocks on the real sector

Fragility and Development in Africa : An Introduction

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