Multi-criteria comparative evaluation of spallation reaction models

This paper presents an approach to a comparative evaluation of the predictive ability of spallation reaction models based on widely used, well-proven multiple-criteria decision analysis methods (MAVT/MAUT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE) and the results of such a comparison for 17 spallation reaction models in the presence of the interaction of high-energy protons with natPb

Innovative nuclear energy systems : state-of-the art survey on evaluation and aggregation judgment measures applied to performance comparison

This paper summarizes the experience gained in the application of multi-criteria decision making and uncertainty treatment methods to a comparative assessment of nuclear energy systems and related nuclear fuel cycles. These judgment measures provide a means for comprehensive evaluation according to different conflicting criteria, such as costs, benefits and risks, which are inevitably associated with the deployment of advanced technologies. Major findings and recommendations elaborated in international and national projects and studies are reviewed and discussed. A careful analysis is performed for multi-criteria comparative assessment of nuclear energy systems and nuclear fuel cycles on the basis of various evaluation and screening results. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the lessons learned, to share the identified solutions, and indicate promising future directions

Multi-criteria evaluation and ranking of potential scenarios for the development of Russian two-component nuclear energy system with thermal and sodium-cooled fast reactors

The paper presents the results from a multi-criteria comparative evaluation of potential deployment scenarios for Russian nuclear power with thermal and sodium-cooled fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle (the so-called two-component nuclear energy system). The comparison and the ranking were performed taking into account the recommendations and using the IAEA/INPRO software tools for comparative evaluation of nuclear energy systems, including tools for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis with respect to weighting factors. Ten potential Russian nuclear power deployment scenarios with different shares of thermal and sodium-cooled fast reactors were considered, including options involving the use of MOX fuel in VVER reactors. Eight key indicators were used, estimated as of 2100 and structured into a three-level objectives tree. The comparative evaluation and the ranking were carried out based on the multi-attribute value theory. The model for assessing the key indicators was developed using the IAEA/INPRO MESSAGE-NES energy system planning software tool. The information base for the study was formed by publications of experts from JSC SSC RF-IPPE, NRC Kurchatov Institute and NRNU MEPhI. The presented results show that it is possible to enhance significantly the sustainability of the Russian nuclear energy system, when considering multiple performance indicators, through the intensive deployment of sodium-cooled fast reactors and the transition to a closed nuclear fuel cycle. Tasks have been outlined for the follow-up studies to make it possible to obtain more rigorous conclusions regarding the preferred options for the evolution of a two-component nuclear energy system

Comparative analysis of the investment attractiveness of nuclear power plant concepts based on small and medium sized reactor modules and a large nuclear reactor

It seems to be of current interest to consider and analyse possible electrical and non-electrical applications of small and medium sized reactors for both the nearest and more distant future. The paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of the economic attractiveness of nuclear power plant (NPP) designs based on small and medium-sized reactor modules and a large-sized reactor in order to identify conditions for increasing the investment attractiveness of NPP modular design concept. The analysis is based on the evaluation of such economic performance metrics as net present value, present value, internal rate of return, discounted payback period, and levelized cost. It was shown that, in terms of the present value and levelized costs, the NPP modular design concept is less economically attractive in comparison with the NPP design based on a large-sized reactor. In terms of the net present value, internal rate of return and payback period, the NPP modular design concept can be considered economically attractive if only the predicted learning effect is observed when the modules are constructed and the scale factor is not less than 0.5. In this case, it will be economically feasible to construct an NPP based on a small number of medium sized reactor modules. If the scale factor is not less than 0.6, one may talk about the economic attractiveness of NPP designs based on reactor modules of lower power. The impact of various debt financing schemes was analysed and it was demonstrated that, in relative terms, changes in the economic performance indicators are comparable in the implementation of the NPP modular design and a large sized reactor

A computer code for optimizing the neutronics model parameters based on results of reactor physics experiments

The paper describes in brief the functional capabilities of a computer code for optimizing the neutronics model parameters (neutron data, technological parameters, and their covariance matrices) based on results of reactor physics experiments using conditional nonlinear multi-parameter optimization algorithms. The code’s application scope includes adjustment of neutron constants, technological parameters and their covariance matrices based on integral measurement results, formulation of requiremen117198ts with respect to the neutron data uncertainties for achieving the target accuracies in calculation of the reactor functionals, and estimation of the reactor performance prediction accuracy, as well as the informativity and similarity metrics of reactor physics experiments with respect to each other and in relation to the target reactor system. The paper also considers some examples of using the code to refine the neutronics models of nuclear reactor and fuel cycle systems based on results of reactor physics experiments

Multi-criteria comparative evaluation of spallation reaction models

This paper presents an approach to a comparative evaluation of the predictive ability of spallation reaction models based on widely used, well-proven multiple-criteria decision analysis methods (MAVT/MAUT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE) and the results of such a comparison for 17 spallation reaction models in the presence of the interaction of high-energy protons with natPb

Corrigendum: Comparison of spallation reaction models based on multiple-criteria decision analysis. https://doi.org/10.3897/nucet.4.31869

Corrigenda: Comparison of spallation reaction models based on multiple-criteria decision analysis. https://doi.org/10.3897/nucet.4.3186

Comparison of spallation reaction models based on multiple-criteria decision analysis

The paper presents the results of a comparative evaluation of the predictive ability of seventeen spallation reaction models (CEM02, CEM03, Phits/jam, Cascade/ASF, Phits/Bertini, Bertini/Dresner, Cascade-4, INCL4/Abla, INCL4/smm, geant4/binary, Isabela/smm, geant4/Bertini, Isabela/Abla, INCL4/Gemini, CASCADeX-1.2, Isabel/Gemini, Phits/jqmd) for the interaction reactions of high-energy protons with natPb nuclei using the most popular methods of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MAVT/MAUT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE). Multiple-criteria decision analysis methods are used extensively to support decision-making in various fields of knowledge, including nuclear physics and engineering, when aggregating conflicting criteria with due account for the expert and decision-maker opinions. Four factors of computational and experimental agreement (R, D, F, H), most commonly used in this field of knowledge, have been employed as the criteria, which, having been aggregated as part of applying respective multiple-criteria decision analysis methods, make it possible to estimate the integral measure of the computational model effectiveness and to rank the models, using this as the basis, depending on the degree of their predictive ability. It has been demonstrated that the ranking results obtained using different multiple-criteria decision analysis methods show a good agreement. Using a stochastic approach to the generation of weights, the models were ranked in conditions with the absence of data on the significance of individual agreement factors. Recommendations are presented for using the multiple-criteria decision analysis methods to address tasks involved in the preparation of nuclear data in conditions of a multiple-factor evaluation of discrepancies between calculations and experiment

Multi-criteria comparative evaluation of spallation reaction models

This paper presents an approach to a comparative evaluation of the predictive ability of spallation reaction models based on widely used, well-proven multiple-criteria decision analysis methods (MAVT/MAUT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE) and the results of such a comparison for 17 spallation reaction models in the presence of the interaction of high-energy protons with natPb

Optimization models of a two-component nuclear energy system with thermal and fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle

The article presents a description and some illustrative results of the application of two optimization models for a two-component nuclear energy system consisting of thermal and fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. These models correspond to two possible options of developing Russian nuclear energy system, which are discussed in the expert community: (1) thermal and fast reactors utilizing uranium and mixed oxide fuel, (2) thermal reactors utilizing uranium oxide fuel and fast reactors utilizing mixed nitride uranium-plutonium fuel. The optimization models elaborated using the IAEA MESSAGE energy planning tool make it possible not only to optimize the nuclear energy system structure according to the economic criterion, taking into account resource and infrastructural constraints, but also to be used as a basis for developing multi-objective, stochastic and robust optimization models of a two-component nuclear energy system. These models were elaborated in full compliance with the recommendations of the IAEA’s PESS and INPRO sections, regarding the specification of nuclear energy systems in MESSAGE. The study is based on publications of experts from NRC “Kurchatov Institute”, JSC “SSC RF-IPPE”, ITCP “Proryv”, JSC “NIKIET”. The presented results demonstrate the characteristic structural features of a two-component nuclear energy system for conservative assumptions in order to illustrate the capabilities of the developed optimization models. Consideration is also given to the economic feasibility of a technologically diversified nuclear energy structure providing the possibility of forming on its base a robust system in the future. It has been demonstrated that given the current uncertainties in the costs of nuclear fuel cycle services and reactor technologies, it is impossible at the moment to make a reasonable conclusion regarding the greatest attractiveness of a particular option in terms of the economic performance