Modes and Measures of Business Support During Wartime: The Case of the Carpathian Region of Ukraine

This article reveals the geographical distribution, structures, and problematic aspects of business migration to the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine and abroad. In the context of the Russian–Ukrainian war, the article assesses the risks and threats that internal and international business migration pose to the Ukrainian economic system, economies of the Carpathian region, the internal consumer market, and business entities. Measures to mitigate the threats of business migration to the Carpathian region are offered. The implementation of certain measures will eliminate the identified threats to relocated businesses and minimise the risks to the social and economic development of the Carpathian region and Ukraine as a whole

Aspiracje migracyjne Ukraińców do Niemiec: analiza i scenariusze rozwoju

Based on the multiple regression model and scenario approach to forecasting, the article estimates the Ukrainian migration aspirations towards Germany (the scale of migration, the economic activity of migrants, and their economic benefits). It is argued that major transformations in the gender-age structure of the German population may cause a demographic crisis and labour market imbalances. Our projections indicate the growing role of foreign human resources in the German economy. When modeling the scale of emigration from Ukraine, an integrated approach is applied, considering not only trends of pull-push factors but also special aspects of the German migration policy and the outflow of 8–10 million Ukrainian migrant workers. Given the poor statistical data on the scale of labour emigration needed for constructing reliable econometric models, the use of expert forecasting method remains the most optimal technique for assessing potential migration flows and migration systems.Na podstawie modelu regresji wielokrotnej i podejścia scenariuszowego do prognoz oszacowano ukraińskie aspiracje migracyjne do Niemiec (skala migracji, aktywność gospodarcza migrantów i ich korzyści ekonomiczne). Argumentuje się, że poważne zmiany w strukturze wiekowej i płci ludności lokalnej mogą powodować kryzys demograficzny i utratę równowagi na rynku pracy. Przedstawione prognozy wskazują na rosnącą rolę zagranicznych zasobów ludzkich w niemieckiej gospodarce. Modelując skalę emigracji z Ukrainy zastosowano podejście zintegrowane, uwzględniające nie tylko trendy czynników przyciągających, ale także szczególne aspekty niemieckiej polityki migracyjnej i odpływ 8–10 milionów ukraińskich pracowników. Biorąc pod uwagę brak wystarczających danych statystycznych dotyczących skali emigracji zarobkowej, potrzebnych do budowy wiarygodnych modeli ekonometrycznych, uzasadniono, że zastosowanie eksperckiej metody prognozowania pozostaje optymalną techniką oceny potencjalnych przepływów migracyjnych i systemów migracji

Priorities and tools of regulation of external migration in the Carpathian region of Ukraine

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to identify trends in external migration of the population in the Carpathian region of Ukraine and to develop applied recommendations for the regulation of external migration in the context of the need to save human resources. Methodology / approach. The theoretical and scientific-methodological basis of the study are the theories of migration, social economy and demography, methods of cognition of migration phenomena and processes. Current research involves such methods and approaches as logical generalization and synthesis to create the basic conclusions and proposals; comparative analysis to compare trends of external migration in the Carpathian region with average national indicators; structural and geographical analysis to assess the migrant rates in recipient countries; graphic and cartographic methods to visualize the results of research of migration flows. Results. The volume of external migration of the population in the Carpathian region of Ukraine as a border area is significant compared to national trends. The largest volumes of migration flows from the Carpathian region are directed to Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Germany, and Italy. The results of the structural analysis confirm the close migration relations of oblasts of the Carpathian region and neighboring countries, including the Carpathian region and Hungary, the Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts with Poland, and Zakarpattya oblast and Moldova. It is determined that the real indicators of external migration from the Carpathian region significantly exceed the data of official statistics. It is proved that the critical challenges caused by the growing external migration in the Carpathian region relate to: increasing educational and labour migration of young people against an active pull migration policy for high qualified and working staff in the EU, increasing imbalances in regional labour markets, low wages and incomes, non-availability labour substitution effect due to low demographic reproduction and active immigration policies. Originality / scientific novelty. The system of priority goals of regional migration policy has been improved in terms of substantiation of mechanisms for regulating external migration of the population, which is based on the formation of information and analytical base of external migration of border areas and development of a new electronic system of labour and educational migration. For the first time, it has been proposed a system of measures to ensure the convergence of the institutional system for regulating regional migration flows from the Carpathian region by the leading models of EU countries. Practical value / implications. There are proposed and substantiated the tools and appropriate measures for regulating the external migration of the population in the Carpathian region under conditions of the need to save human resources and ensure the intellectual and personnel security in the region for their implementation by regional authorities