Moving on from the software engineers' gambit: an approach to support the defense of software effort estimates

Pressure for higher productivity and faster delivery is increasingly pervading software organizations. This can lead software engineers to act like chess players playing a gambit -- making sacrifices of their technically sound estimates, thus submitting their teams to time pressure. In turn, time pressure can have varied detrimental effects, such as poor product quality and emotional distress, decreasing productivity, which leads to more time pressure and delays: a hard-to-stop vicious cycle. This reveals a need for moving on from the more passive strategy of yielding to pressure to a more active one of defending software estimates. Therefore, we propose an approach to support software estimators in acquiring knowledge on how to carry out such defense, by introducing negotiation principles encapsulated in a set of defense lenses, presented through a digital simulation. We evaluated the proposed approach through a controlled experiment with software practitioners from different companies. We collected data on participants' attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intentions to perform the defense of their estimates in light of the Theory of Planned Behavior. We employed a frequentist and a bayesian approach to data analysis. Results show improved scores among experimental group participants after engaging with the digital simulation and learning about the lenses. They were also more inclined to choose a defense action when facing pressure scenarios than a control group exposed to questions to reflect on the reasons and outcomes of pressure over estimates. Qualitative evidence reveals that practitioners perceived the set of lenses as useful in their current work environments. Collectively, these results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach and its perceived relevance for the industry, despite the low amount of time required to engage with it.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure

The defect variance of random spherical harmonics

The defect of a function $f:M\rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is defined as the difference between the measure of the positive and negative regions. In this paper, we begin the analysis of the distribution of defect of random Gaussian spherical harmonics. By an easy argument, the defect is non-trivial only for even degree and the expected value always vanishes. Our principal result is obtaining the asymptotic shape of the defect variance, in the high frequency limit. As other geometric functionals of random eigenfunctions, the defect may be used as a tool to probe the statistical properties of spherical random fields, a topic of great interest for modern Cosmological data analysis.Comment: 19 page

Organic matter composition and greenhouse gas production of thawing subsea permafrost in the Laptev Sea

Subsea permafrost represents a large carbon pool that might be or become a significant greenhouse gas source. Scarcity of observational data causes large uncertainties. We here use five 21-56 m long subsea permafrost cores from the Laptev Sea to constrain organic carbon (OC) storage and sources, degradation state and potential greenhouse gas production upon thaw. Grain sizes, optically-stimulated luminescence and biomarkers suggest deposition of aeolian silt and fluvial sand over 160 000 years, with dominant fluvial/alluvial deposition of forest- and tundra-derived organic matter. We estimate an annual thaw rate of 1.3 ± 0.6 kg OC m−2 in subsea permafrost in the area, nine-fold exceeding organic carbon thaw rates for terrestrial permafrost. During 20-month incubations, CH4 and CO2 production averaged 1.7 nmol and 2.4 µmol g−1 OC d−1, providing a baseline to assess the contribution of subsea permafrost to the high CH4 fluxes and strong ocean acidification observed in the region

A Planetary Microlensing Event with an Unusually Red Source Star: MOA-2011-BLG-291

We present the analysis of planetary microlensing event MOA-2011-BLG-291, which has a mass ratio of $q=(3.8\pm0.7)\times10^{-4}$ and a source star that is redder (or brighter) than the bulge main sequence. This event is located at a low Galactic latitude in the survey area that is currently planned for NASA's WFIRST exoplanet microlensing survey. This unusual color for a microlensed source star implies that we cannot assume that the source star is in the Galactic bulge. The favored interpretation is that the source star is a lower main sequence star at a distance of $D_S=4.9\pm1.3\,$kpc in the Galactic disk. However, the source could also be a turn-off star on the far side of the bulge or a sub-giant in the far side of the Galactic disk if it experiences significantly more reddening than the bulge red clump stars. However, these possibilities have only a small effect on our mass estimates for the host star and planet. We find host star and planet masses of $M_{\rm host} =0.15^{+0.27}_{-0.10}M_\odot$ and $m_p=18^{+34}_{-12}M_\oplus$ from a Bayesian analysis with a standard Galactic model under the assumption that the planet hosting probability does not depend on the host mass or distance. However, if we attempt to measure the host and planet masses with host star brightness measurements from high angular resolution follow-up imaging, the implied masses will be sensitive to the host star distance. The WFIRST exoplanet microlensing survey is expected to use this method to determine the masses for many of the planetary systems that it discovers, so this issue has important design implications for the WFIRST exoplanet microlensing survey

Spectroscopic Mass and Host-star Metallicity Measurements for Newly Discovered Microlensing Planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0740Lb

We report the discovery of the microlensing planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0740Lb. The planet is detected with a very strong signal of $\Delta\chi^2\sim 4630$, but the interpretation of the signal suffers from two types of degeneracies. One type is caused by the previously known close/wide degeneracy, and the other is caused by an ambiguity between two solutions, in which one solution requires to incorporate finite-source effects, while the other solution is consistent with a point-source interpretation. Although difficult to be firmly resolved based on only the photometric data, the degeneracy is resolved in strong favor of the point-source solution with the additional external information obtained from astrometric and spectroscopic observations. The small astrometric offset between the source and baseline object supports that the blend is the lens and this interpretation is further secured by the consistency of the spectroscopic distance estimate of the blend with the lensing parameters of the point-source solution. The estimated mass of the host is $1.0\pm 0.1~M_\odot$ and the mass of the planet is $4.5\pm 0.6~M_{\rm J}$ (close solution) or $4.8\pm 0.6~M_{\rm J}$ (wide solution) and the lens is located at a distance of $3.2\pm 0.5$~kpc. The bright nature of the lens, with $I\sim 17.1$ ($V\sim 18.2$), combined with its dominance of the observed flux suggest that radial-velocity (RV) follow-up observations of the lens can be done using high-resolution spectrometers mounted on large telescopes, e.g., VLT/ESPRESSO, and this can potentially not only measure the period and eccentricity of the planet but also probe for close-in planets. We estimate that the expected RV amplitude would be $\sim 60\sin i ~{\rm m~s}^{-1}$.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, 4 table

Candidate Brown-dwarf Microlensing Events with Very Short Timescales and Small Angular Einstein Radii

Short-timescale microlensing events are likely to be produced by substellar brown dwarfs (BDs), but it is difficult to securely identify BD lenses based on only event timescales t_E because short-timescale events can also be produced by stellar lenses with high relative lens-source proper motions. In this paper, we report three strong candidate BD-lens events found from the search for lensing events not only with short timescales (t_E ≲ 6 days) but also with very small angular Einstein radii (θ_E ≲ 0.05 mas) among the events that have been found in the 2016–2019 observing seasons. These events include MOA-2017-BLG-147, MOA-2017-BLG-241, and MOA-2019-BLG-256, in which the first two events are produced by single lenses and the last event is produced by a binary lens. From the Monte Carlo simulations of Galactic events conducted with the combined t_E and θ_E constraint, it is estimated that the lens masses of the individual events are 0.051^(+0.100)_(−0.027) M⊙, 0.044^(+0.090)_(−0.023) M⊙, and 0.046^(+0.067)_(−0.023) M⊙/0.038^(+0.056)_(−0.019) M⊙ and the probability of the lens mass smaller than the lower limit of stars is ~80% for all events. We point out that routine lens mass measurements of short-timescale lensing events require survey-mode space-based observations

OGLE-2018-BLG-0022: First Prediction of an Astrometric Microlensing Signal from a Photometric Microlensing Event

In this work, we present the analysis of the binary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0022 that is detected toward the Galactic bulge field. The dense and continuous coverage with the high-quality photometry data from ground-based observations combined with the space-based {\it Spitzer} observations of this long time-scale event enables us to uniquely determine the masses $M_1=0.40 \pm 0.05~M_\odot$ and $M_2=0.13\pm 0.01~M_\odot$ of the individual lens components. Because the lens-source relative parallax and the vector lens-source relative proper motion are unambiguously determined, we can likewise unambiguously predict the astrometric offset between the light centroid of the magnified images (as observed by the {\it Gaia} satellite) and the true position of the source. This prediction can be tested when the individual-epoch {\it Gaia} astrometric measurements are released.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, 4 table

SpitzerSpitzer Parallax of OGLE-2018-BLG-0596: A Low-mass-ratio Planet around an M-dwarf

We report the discovery of a $Spitzer$ microlensing planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0596Lb, with preferred planet-host mass ratio $q \sim 2\times10^{-4}$. The planetary signal, which is characterized by a short $(\sim 1~{\rm day})$ "bump" on the rising side of the lensing light curve, was densely covered by ground-based surveys. We find that the signal can be explained by a bright source that fully envelops the planetary caustic, i.e., a "Hollywood" geometry. Combined with the source proper motion measured from $Gaia$, the $Spitzer$ satellite parallax measurement makes it possible to precisely constrain the lens physical parameters. The preferred solution, in which the planet perturbs the minor image due to lensing by the host, yields a Uranus-mass planet with a mass of $M_{\rm p} = 13.9\pm1.6~M_{\oplus}$ orbiting a mid M-dwarf with a mass of $M_{\rm h} = 0.23\pm0.03~M_{\odot}$. There is also a second possible solution that is substantially disfavored but cannot be ruled out, for which the planet perturbs the major image. The latter solution yields $M_{\rm p} = 1.2\pm0.2~M_{\oplus}$ and $M_{\rm h} = 0.15\pm0.02~M_{\odot}$. By combining the microlensing and $Gaia$ data together with a Galactic model, we find in either case that the lens lies on the near side of the Galactic bulge at a distance $D_{\rm L} \sim 6\pm1~{\rm kpc}$. Future adaptive optics observations may decisively resolve the major image/minor image degeneracy.Comment: 34 pages, 8 figures, Submitted to AAS journa

A Gas Giant Planet in the OGLE-2006-BLG-284L Stellar Binary System

We present the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2006-BLG-284, which has a lens system that consists of two stars and a gas giant planet with a mass ratio of $q_p = (1.26\pm 0.19) \times 10^{-3}$ to the primary. The mass ratio of the two stars is $q_s = 0.289\pm 0.011$, and their projected separation is $s_s = 2.1\pm 0.7\,$AU, while the projected separation of the planet from the primary is $s_p = 2.2\pm 0.8\,$AU. For this lens system to have stable orbits, the three-dimensional separation of either the primary and secondary stars or the planet and primary star must be much larger than that these projected separations. Since we do not know which is the case, the system could include either a circumbinary or a circumstellar planet. Because there is no measurement of the microlensing parallax effect or lens system brightness, we can only make a rough Bayesian estimate of the lens system masses and brightness. We find host star and planet masses of $M_{L1} = 0.35^{+0.30}_{-0.20}\,M_\odot$, $M_{L2} = 0.10^{+0.09}_{-0.06}\,M_\odot$, and $m_p = 144^{+126}_{-82}\,M_\oplus$, and the $K$-band magnitude of the combined brightness of the host stars is $K_L = 19.7^{+0.7}_{-1.0}$. The separation between the lens and source system will be $\sim 90\,$mas in mid-2020, so it should be possible to detect the host system with follow-up adaptive optics or Hubble Space Telescope observations