Efficient representation of the hydrographic structure of the north Atlantic Ocean and aspects of the circulation from objective methods

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, 1989.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 232-236).by Ichiro Fukumori.Ph.D

Intraseasonal sea level variability in the Persian Gulf

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(5), (2021): 1687–1704, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0296.1.Satellite observations are used to establish the dominant magnitudes, scales, and mechanisms of intraseasonal variability in ocean dynamic sea level (ζ) in the Persian Gulf over 2002–15. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to altimetry data reveals a basinwide, single-signed intraseasonal fluctuation that contributes importantly to ζ variance in the Persian Gulf at monthly to decadal time scales. An EOF analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations over the same period returns a similar large-scale mode of intraseasonal variability, suggesting that the basinwide intraseasonal ζ variation has a predominantly barotropic nature. A linear barotropic theory is developed to interpret the data. The theory represents Persian Gulf average ζ (¯ζ) in terms of local freshwater flux, barometric pressure, and wind stress forcing, as well as ζ at the boundary in the Gulf of Oman. The theory is tested using a multiple linear regression with these freshwater flux, barometric pressure, wind stress, and boundary ζ quantities as input and ¯ζ as output. The regression explains 70% ± 9% (95% confidence interval) of the intraseasonal ¯ζ variance. Numerical values of regression coefficients computed empirically from the data are consistent with theoretical expectations from first principles. Results point to a substantial nonisostatic response to surface loading. The Gulf of Oman ζ boundary condition shows lagged correlation with ζ upstream along the Indian subcontinent, Maritime Continent, and equatorial Indian Ocean, suggesting a large-scale Indian Ocean influence on intraseasonal ¯ζ variation mediated by coastal and equatorial waves and hinting at potential predictability. This study highlights the value of GRACE for understanding sea level in an understudied marginal sea.The authors acknowledge support from NASA through the Sea Level Change Team (Grant 80NSSC20K1241) and GRACE Follow-On Science Team (Grant 80NSSC20K0728). The authors appreciate comments from two anonymous reviewers that improved the manuscript

Global General Circulation of the Ocean Estimated by the ECCO-Consortium

Following on the heels of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium has been directed at making the best possible estimates of ocean circulation and its role in climate. ECCO is combining state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models with the nearly complete global ocean data sets for 1992 to present. Solutions are now available that adequately fit almost all types of ocean observations and that are, simultaneously, consistent with the model. These solutions are being applied to understanding ocean variability, biological cycles, coastal physics, geodesy, and many other areas.National Oceanographic Partnership Program (U.S.)United States. National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Science Foundation (U.S.)United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.)San Diego Supercomputer CenterGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (U.S.)Jet Propulsion Laboratory (U.S.)

ECCO Version 4 Release 3

This note provides a brief synopsis of ECCO Version 4 Release 3.This note provides a brief synopsis of ECCO Version 4 Release 3, an updated edition to the global ocean state estimate described by Forget et al. (2015b, 2016), covering the period 1992-2015.JPL/Caltech and NASA Physical Oceanograph

Low-frequency dynamic ocean response to barometric-pressure loading

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(11), (2022): 2627-2641, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0090.1.Changes in dynamic manometric sea level ζm represent mass-related sea level changes associated with ocean circulation and climate. We use twin model experiments to quantify magnitudes and spatiotemporal scales of ζm variability caused by barometric pressure pa loading at long periods (≳1 month) and large scales (≳300km) relevant to Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean data. Loading by pa drives basin-scale monthly ζm variability with magnitudes as large as a few centimeters. Largest ζm signals occur over abyssal plains, on the shelf, and in marginal seas. Correlation patterns of modeled ζm are determined by continental coasts and H/f contours (H is ocean depth and f is Coriolis parameter). On average, ζm signals forced by pa represent departures of ≲10% and ≲1% from the inverted-barometer effect ζib on monthly and annual periods, respectively. Basic magnitudes, spatial patterns, and spectral behaviors of ζm from the model are consistent with scaling arguments from barotropic potential vorticity conservation. We also compare ζm from the model driven by pa to ζm from GRACE observations. Modeled and observed ζm are significantly correlated across parts of the tropical and extratropical oceans, on shelf and slope regions, and in marginal seas. Ratios of modeled to observed ζm magnitudes are as large as ∼0.2 (largest in the Arctic Ocean) and qualitatively agree with analytical theory for the gain of the transfer function between ζm forced by pa and wind stress. Results demonstrate that pa loading is a secondary but nevertheless important contributor to monthly mass variability from GRACE over the ocean.The authors acknowledge support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration through the GRACE Follow-On Science Team (Grant 80NSSC20K0728) and the Sea Level Change Team (Grant 80NSSC20K1241). The contribution from I. F. and O. W. represents research carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant 80NM0018D0004)

Local and remote forcing of interannual sea‐level variability at Nantucket Island

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wang, O., Lee, T., Piecuch, C., Fukumori, I., Fenty, I., Frederikse, T., Menemenlis, D., Ponte, R., & Zhang, H. Local and remote forcing of interannual sea‐level variability at Nantucket Island. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127(6), (2022): e2021JC018275, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jc018275.The relative contributions of local and remote wind stress and air-sea buoyancy forcing to sea-level variations along the East Coast of the United States are not well quantified, hindering the understanding of sea-level predictability there. Here, we use an adjoint sensitivity analysis together with an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean state estimate to establish the causality of interannual variations in Nantucket dynamic sea level. Wind forcing explains 67% of the Nantucket interannual sea-level variance, while wind and buoyancy forcing together explain 97% of the variance. Wind stress contribution is near-local, primarily from the New England shelf northeast of Nantucket. We disprove a previous hypothesis about Labrador Sea wind stress being an important driver of Nantucket sea-level variations. Buoyancy forcing, as important as wind stress in some years, includes local contributions as well as remote contributions from the subpolar North Atlantic that influence Nantucket sea level a few years later. Our rigorous adjoint-based analysis corroborates previous correlation-based studies indicating that sea-level variations in the subpolar gyre and along the United States northeast coast can both be influenced by subpolar buoyancy forcing. Forward perturbation experiments further indicate remote buoyancy forcing affects Nantucket sea level mostly through slow advective processes, although coastally trapped waves can cause rapid Nantucket sea level response within a few weeks.This research was carried out in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). CGP was supported by NASA Sea Level Change Team awards 80NSSC20K1241 and 80NM0018D0004

Influence of nonseasonal river discharge on sea surface salinity and height

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Chandanpurkar, H. A., Lee, T., Wang, X., Zhang, H., Fournier, S., Fenty, I., Fukumori, I., Menemenlis, D., Piecuch, C. G., Reager, J. T., Wang, O., & Worden, J. Influence of nonseasonal river discharge on sea surface salinity and height. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14(2), (2022): e2021MS002715, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002715.River discharge influences ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. Due to the lack of a systematic, up-to-date global measurement network for river discharge, global ocean models typically use seasonal discharge climatology as forcing. This compromises the simulated nonseasonal variation (the deviation from seasonal climatology) of the ocean near river plumes and undermines their usefulness for interdisciplinary research. Recently, a reanalysis-based daily varying global discharge data set was developed, providing the first opportunity to quantify nonseasonal discharge effects on global ocean models. Here we use this data set to force a global ocean model for the 1992–2017 period. We contrast this experiment with another experiment (with identical atmospheric forcings) forced by seasonal climatology from the same discharge data set to isolate nonseasonal discharge effects, focusing on sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface height (SSH). Near major river mouths, nonseasonal discharge causes standard deviations in SSS (SSH) of 1.3–3 practical salinity unit (1–2.7 cm). The inclusion of nonseasonal discharge results in notable improvement of model SSS against satellite SSS near most of the tropical-to-midlatitude river mouths and minor improvement of model SSH against satellite or in-situ SSH near some of the river mouths. SSH changes associated with nonseasonal discharge can be explained by salinity effects on halosteric height and estimated accurately through the associated SSS changes. A recent theory predicting river discharge impact on SSH is found to perform reasonably well overall but underestimates the impact on SSH around the global ocean and has limited skill when applied to rivers near the equator and in the Arctic Ocean.This research was carried out in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004) with support from the Physical Oceanography (PO) and Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (MAP) Programs. High-end computing resources for the numerical simulation were provided by the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division at the Ames Research Center

Sea Level and the role of coastal trapped waves in mediating the influence of the open ocean on the coast

The fact that ocean currents must flow parallel to the coast leads to the dynamics of coastal sea level being quite different from the dynamics in the open ocean. The coastal influence of open-ocean dynamics (dynamics associated with forcing which occurs in deep water, beyond the continental slope) therefore involves a hand-over between the predominantly geostrophic dynamics of the interior ocean and the ageostrophic dynamics which must occur at the coast. An understanding of how this hand-over occurs can be obtained by considering the combined role of coastal trapped waves and bottom friction. We here review understanding of coastal trapped waves, which propagate cyclonically around ocean basins along the continental shelf and slope, at speeds which are fast compared to those of baroclinic planetary waves and currents in the open ocean (excluding the large-scale barotropic mode). We show that this results in coastal sea-level signals on western boundaries which, compared to the nearby open-ocean signals, are spatially smoothed, reduced in amplitude, and displaced along the coast in the direction of propagation of coastal trapped waves. The open-ocean influence on eastern boundaries is limited to signals propagating polewards from the equatorial waveguide (although a large-scale diffusive influence may also play a role). This body of work is based on linearised equations, but we also discuss the nonlinear case. We suggest that a proper consideration of nonlinear terms may be very important on western boundaries, as the competition between advection by western boundary currents and a counter-propagating influence of coastal trapped waves has the potential to lead to sharp gradients in coastal sea level where the two effects come into balance

DISTINGUISHING THE ROLES OF NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENICALLY FORCED DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY Implications for Prediction

Given that over the course of the next 10–30 years the magnitude of natural decadal variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales, it is envisioned that initialized decadal predictions will provide important information for climate-related management and adaptation decisions. Such predictions are presently one of the grand challenges for the climate community. This requires identifying those physical phenomena—and their model equivalents—that may provide additional predictability on decadal time scales, including an assessment of the physical processes through which anthropogenic forcing may interact with or project upon natural variability. Such a physical framework is necessary to provide a consistent assessment (and insight into potential improvement) of the decadal prediction experiments planned to be assessed as part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report

Intercomparison and validation of the mixed layer depth fields of global ocean syntheses

Intercomparison and evaluation of the global ocean surface mixed layer depth (MLD) fields estimated from a suite of major ocean syntheses are conducted. Compared with the reference MLDs calculated from individual profiles, MLDs calculated from monthly mean and gridded profiles show negative biases of 10–20 m in early spring related to the re-stratification process of relatively deep mixed layers. Vertical resolution of profiles also influences the MLD estimation. MLDs are underestimated by approximately 5–7 (14–16) m with the vertical resolution of 25 (50) m when the criterion of potential density exceeding the 10-m value by 0.03 kg m−3 is used for the MLD estimation. Using the larger criterion (0.125 kg m−3) generally reduces the underestimations. In addition, positive biases greater than 100 m are found in wintertime subpolar regions when MLD criteria based on temperature are used. Biases of the reanalyses are due to both model errors and errors related to differences between the assimilation methods. The result shows that these errors are partially cancelled out through the ensemble averaging. Moreover, the bias in the ensemble mean field of the reanalyses is smaller than in the observation-only analyses. This is largely attributed to comparably higher resolutions of the reanalyses. The robust reproduction of both the seasonal cycle and interannual variability by the ensemble mean of the reanalyses indicates a great potential of the ensemble mean MLD field for investigating and monitoring upper ocean processes