Improving particle filter performance by smoothing observations

This article shows that increasing the observation variance at small scales can reduce the ensemble size required to avoid collapse in particle filtering of spatially-extended dynamics and improve the resulting uncertainty quantification at large scales. Particle filter weights depend on how well ensemble members agree with observations, and collapse occurs when a few ensemble members receive most of the weight. Collapse causes catastrophic variance underestimation. Increasing small-scale variance in the observation error model reduces the incidence of collapse by de-emphasizing small-scale differences between the ensemble members and the observations. Doing so smooths the posterior mean, though it does not smooth the individual ensemble members. Two options for implementing the proposed observation error model are described. Taking discretized elliptic differential operators as an observation error covariance matrix provides the desired property of a spectrum that grows in the approach to small scales. This choice also introduces structure exploitable by scalable computation techniques, including multigrid solvers and multiresolution approximations to the corresponding integral operator. Alternatively the observations can be smoothed and then assimilated under the assumption of independent errors, which is equivalent to assuming large errors at small scales. The method is demonstrated on a linear stochastic partial differential equation, where it significantly reduces the occurrence of particle filter collapse while maintaining accuracy. It also improves continuous ranked probability scores by as much as 25%, indicating that the weighted ensemble more accurately represents the true distribution. The method is compatible with other techniques for improving the performance of particle filters.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figure

Timing verification of dynamically reconfigurable logic for Xilinx Virtex FPGA series

This paper reports on a method for extending existing VHDL design and verification software available for the Xilinx Virtex series of FPGAs. It allows the designer to apply standard hardware design and verification tools to the design of dynamically reconfigurable logic (DRL). The technique involves the conversion of a dynamic design into multiple static designs, suitable for input to standard synthesis and APR tools. For timing and functional verification after APR, the sections of the design can then be recombined into a single dynamic system. The technique has been automated by extending an existing DRL design tool named DCSTech, which is part of the Dynamic Circuit Switching (DCS) CAD framework. The principles behind the tools are generic and should be readily extensible to other architectures and CAD toolsets. Implementation of the dynamic system involves the production of partial configuration bitstreams to load sections of circuitry. The process of creating such bitstreams, the final stage of our design flow, is summarized

REPORT on Research into ‘closing the gap’ : raising achievement for disadvantaged pupils

This research was commissioned by Peterborough City Council as a work stream as part of their Closing the Gap project. There is a gap in performance between children from rich and poor backgrounds in many countries, but the gap in the UK is considered to be significant (OECD, 2014; Strand 2014). Work by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has estimated that there will be 3.5 million UK children living in poverty by 2020 (JRF, 2014). One strategy to attempt to address the problem was the introduction of The Pupil Premium by the Coalition Government in 2011 to provide additional funding to state funded schools to close the attainment gap between disadvantaged children and their peers by raising the attainment levels of those children from disadvantaged backgrounds (Ofsted, 2012)

Coverage-dependent adsorption sites for K/Cu(001) and Cs/Cu(001) determined by surface X-ray diffraction

Surface X-ray diffraction has been used to analyze in situ the room-temperature adsorption behaviour and the structure of K and Cs on Cu(100) at submonolayer coverages. Adsorption of K takes place in fourfold hollow sites up to coverages of about 0.25 monolayers (ML), where 1 ML corresponds to 1.53 × 1015 atoms/cm2. At higher coverages the formation of a quasi-hexagonal incommensurate adlayer is observed. In contrast, for Cs adsorption we observe from the very beginning the formation of the quasi-hexagonal structure up to the completion of the adlayer at about 0.30 ML. For K adsorption in the hollow sites we determine an adsorption height, d = 2.25(15) Å, corresponding to an effective K radius of reff = 1.6(1) Å close to the ionic radius of 1.33 Å. We do not observe a change in the effective radius as a function of coverage. For the quasi-hexagonal Cs structure we find an (average) adsorption height d = 2.94 Å corresponding to an effective radius of reff = 2.18 and 1.93 Å, for the limiting ca hollow- and bridge-site adsorption, respectively. The analysis of the superlattice reflections corresponding to the quasi-hexagonal incommensurate structures indicated that the K adlayer is strongly modulated. The first Fourier component of the substrate-induced modulation was determined to u01 = 1.29(3) Å. In contrast, for Cs/Cu(001) static modulation is much less important (u01 0.2 Å). Variation of the Cs adlayer density by changing the substrate temperature allows continuous expansion and contraction of the adsorbate unit cell. No commensurate-incommensurate transition has been observed

Two novel flight-interception trap designs for low-cost forest insect surveys

This paper introduces two passive trap designs for the survey of flying Coleoptera and other insects which can be constructed on very low budgets at < £1 per trap. A trunk window trap and an aerial flight-interception trap are presented, based on commonly used designs, but using much cheaper materials than standard. Construction diagrams are given, along with a description of trap installation, operation and beetle species found using these methods during a survey of Ayr Gorge Woodland, South-West Scotland. The traps were found to be robust and easy to operate. It is hoped that these trap designs will be of use to charitable organisations, students and amateurs who may previously have been unable to consider monitoring flying insects at large scales due to the prohibitive cost of equipment

Identifying invertebrate invasions using morphological and molecular analyses: North American Daphnia ‘pulex’ in New Zealand fresh waters

We used a DNA barcoding approach to identify specimens of the Daphnia pulex complex occurring in New Zealand lakes, documenting the establishment of non-indigenous North American Daphnia 'pulex'. Morphological delineation of species in this complex is problematic due to a lack of good morphological traits to distinguish the species, as there is a relatively high degree of morphological stasis within the group through evolutionary time. Accordingly, genetic analyses were used to determine the specific identity and likely geographic origin of this species. Morphologically, individuals most closely resembled Daphnia pulicaria or Daphnia pulex sensu lato, which cannot be separated morphologically. Furthermore, each of these taxa comprises separate species in North America and Europe, despite carrying the same names. We identified individuals using a 658 bp nucleotide portion of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 gene (COI) as North American Daphnia 'pulex', being distinct from European Daphnia pulex sensu stricto and D. pulicaria from Europe or North America. Cellulose allozyme electrophoresis was used to confirm that individuals were not hybrids with D. pulicaria. North American Daphnia 'pulex' in New Zealand were first recorded in New Zealand from South Island lakes that are popular for overseas recreational fishers, indicating a possible source of introduction for this species (e.g. on/in fishing gear). Our study provides an additional example of how genetic techniques can be used for the accurate identification of non-indigenous taxa, particularly when morphological species determination is not possible. The growth of global databases such as GenBank and Barcode of Life Datasystems (BOLD) will further enhance this identification capacity