Relative Survival – What Can Cardiovascular Disease Learn from Cancer?

Aims: To illustrate the application of relative survival to observational studies in coronary heart disease and potential advantages compared to all-cause survival methods. Survival after myocardial infarction is generally assessed using all-cause or cause-specific methods. Neither method is able to assess the impact of the disease or condition of interest in comparison to expected survival in a similar population. Relative survival, the ratio of the observed and the expected survival rates, is applied routinely in cancer studies and may improve on current methods for assessment of survival in coronary heart disease. Methods and results: Using a cohort of subjects after a first recorded acute myocardial infarction, we discuss the application of relative survival in coronary heart disease and illustrate a number of the key issues. We compare the findings from relative survival with those obtained using Cox proportional and non-proportional hazards models in standard all-cause survival. Estimated survival rates are higher using relative survival models compared to all-cause methods. Conclusion: Estimates obtained from all-cause mortality fail to disentangle mortality associated with the condition of interest from that due to all other causes. Relative survival gives an estimate of survival due to the disease of interest without the need for cause of death information

Novel plasma and imaging biomarkers in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Existing diagnostic guidelines for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (. HFPEF) primarily comprise natriuretic peptides and echocardiographic assessment, highlighting the role of diastolic dysfunction. However, recent discoveries of novel plasma markers implicated in pathophysiology of heart failure and technological advances in imaging provide additional biomarkers which are potentially applicable to HFPEF. The evidence base for plasma extra-cellular matrix (ECM) peptides, galectin-3, ST2, GDF-15 and pentraxin-3 is reviewed. Furthermore, the capabilities of novel imaging techniques to assess existing parameters (e.g. left ventricular ejection fraction, systolic & diastolic function, chamber size) and additional derangements of the ECM, myocardial mechanics and ischaemia evaluation are addressed

Evidence for reduced susceptibility to cardiac bradyarrhythmias in South Asians compared with Caucasians

Objectives To investigate ethnic differences in susceptibility to bradycardias in South Asian and white European patients in the UK by determining rates of permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation for sinus node dysfunction (SND) and atrioventricular block (AVB) in each ethnic group. Methods We carried out a retrospective cohort study into new PPM implantation during the period from 1 May 2006 to 31 March 2014, in patients of South Asian and Caucasian ethnicity resident in Leicestershire, UK. Numbers of individuals at risk in each ethnic group were derived from UK National Census data of 2011. Crude, and age-standardised incidence rates and risk ratios per 1000 population of PPM implantation were calculated for Caucasians and South Asians. Results During the study period, 4883 individuals from the Leicestershire population of 980 328 underwent PPM implantation, a cumulative implantation rate of 4.98/1000 population. The population cumulative PPM implantation rate for SND was 1.74/1000, AVB 2.83/1000 and other indications 0.38/1000 population. The crude incidence in Caucasians (6.15/1000 population) was higher than in South Asians (1.07/1000 population) and remained higher after age standardisation (5.60/1000 vs 2.03/1000, P<0.001). The age-standardised cumulative PPM implantation rates were lower in South Asians for both SND (0.53/1000 in South Asians; 1.97/1000 in Caucasians, P<0.001) and AVB (1.30/1000 in South Asians; 3.17/1000 in Caucasians, P<0.001). Standardised risk ratios (95% CI) for PPM implantation in South Asians compared with Caucasians for all pacing indications, SND and AVB were 0.36 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.37), 0.27 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.28) and 0.41 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.42), respectively. Conclusions Rates of PPM implantation are lower in South Asians residing in the UK, compared with Caucasians. This observation raises the possibility of lower inherent susceptibility to bradycardias in South Asians compared with Caucasians. Studies aimed at identifying underlying mechanisms, including possible genetic differences, are warranted

Evidence for reduced susceptibility to cardiac bradycardias in South Asians compared with Caucasians.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate ethnic differences in susceptibility to bradycardias in South Asian and white European patients in the UK by determining rates of permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation for sinus node dysfunction (SND) and atrioventricular block (AVB) in each ethnic group. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective cohort study into new PPM implantation during the period from 1 May 2006 to 31 March 2014, in patients of South Asian and Caucasian ethnicity resident in Leicestershire, UK. Numbers of individuals at risk in each ethnic group were derived from UK National Census data of 2011. Crude, and age-standardised incidence rates and risk ratios per 1000 population of PPM implantation were calculated for Caucasians and South Asians. RESULTS: During the study period, 4883 individuals from the Leicestershire population of 980 328 underwent PPM implantation, a cumulative implantation rate of 4.98/1000 population. The population cumulative PPM implantation rate for SND was 1.74/1000, AVB 2.83/1000 and other indications 0.38/1000 population. The crude incidence in Caucasians (6.15/1000 population) was higher than in South Asians (1.07/1000 population) and remained higher after age standardisation (5.60/1000 vs 2.03/1000, P<0.001). The age-standardised cumulative PPM implantation rates were lower in South Asians for both SND (0.53/1000 in South Asians; 1.97/1000 in Caucasians, P<0.001) and AVB (1.30/1000 in South Asians; 3.17/1000 in Caucasians, P<0.001). Standardised risk ratios (95% CI) for PPM implantation in South Asians compared with Caucasians for all pacing indications, SND and AVB were 0.36 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.37), 0.27 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.28) and 0.41 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.42), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of PPM implantation are lower in South Asians residing in the UK, compared with Caucasians. This observation raises the possibility of lower inherent susceptibility to bradycardias in South Asians compared with Caucasians. Studies aimed at identifying underlying mechanisms, including possible genetic differences, are warranted

Survival in South Asian and white European patients after acute myocardial infarction; a UK historical cohort study.

Objective To examine the association between ethnicity and survival following acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in White European (WE) and South Asian (SA) patients from a multiethnic UK population. Methods Retrospective, cohort study of 4111 (N=730, 17.8% of SA ethnicity) hospitalised patients, with AMI from a tertiary coronary care centre in the UK, admitted between October 2002 and September 2008. The primary end point was all-cause mortality. The association of ethnicity with survival post AMI was assessed using the Cox regression analysis. Results Compared with WE patients, SA patients were on average younger (62.0 years vs 67.3 years) and had higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes (39.7% vs 16.1%). During follow-up (median 912, range 1–2556, days), crude mortality rate was 22.6% in SA patients and 26.0% in WE patients (p=0.061). SA ethnicity did not show univariate (HR 0.85 (0.72 to 1.01)) or multivariate (HR, 1.12 (0.94 to 1.34)) association with mortality. Findings were similar for mortality during 0–30 days (1.30 (0.99 to 1.70)), >30 days−1 year (0.97 (0.67 to 1.40)), >1 year–3 years (1.21 (0.83 to 1.76)), >3 years (0.82 (0.47 to 1.41)), and for long-term mortality in survivors from 30 days (1.02 (0.81 to 1.29)). Conclusions When adjusted for differing prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in the two ethnic groups, survival following AMI was similar for SA and WE patients in the UK

Prognostic role of molecular forms of B-type natriuretic peptide in acute heart failure

© 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry. BACKGROUND: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) molecular forms 5-32, 4-32, and 3-32 are known to be present in the circulation of heart failure (HF) patients. This study investigated the prognostic role of circulating BNP molecular forms on risk prediction for patients with acute HF. METHODS: BNP molecular forms were measured in plasma using an immunocapture MALDI-TOF-mass spectrometry (MS) method. Associations of molecular BNP forms with adverse outcome of all-cause mortality (death) and a composite of all-cause mortality and rehospitalization due to HF (death/HF) at 6 months and 1 year were investigated. RESULTS: BNP molecular forms 5-32, 4-32, and 3-32 were detected in 838 out of 904 patient samples. BNP molecular forms were all able to independently predict death and death/HF at 6 months and 1 year. BNP 5-32 was the superior form with strongest predictive qualities for death at 6 months [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.31, P = 0.005] and 1 year (adjusted HR 1.29, P=0.002) and death/HF at 1 year (adjusted HR 1.18, P = 0.011). BNP 5-32, 4-32, and 3-32 showed decreased survival rates across increasing tertiles of circulating concentrations (P ≤ 0.004). BNP molecular forms showed prognostic ability comparable with conventional BNP measurements across all end points (P = 0.002- 0.032 vs P = 0.014 - 0.039, respectively) and reduced associations with renal dysfunction (blood urea; Spearman correlation r s = 0.187- 0.246 vs r s = 0.369, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: BNP molecular forms, notably BNP 5-32, showed association with poor prognosis at 6 months and 1 year in patients with acute HF. This is the first study reporting the prognostic ability of molecular BNP forms in HF patients and demonstrated comparable qualities to conventional BNP measurements

Oxygen-regulated protein 150 and prognosis following myocardial infarction.

ORP150 (oxygen-regulated protein 150) is a chaperonin expressed in tissues undergoing hypoxic or endoplasmic reticulum stress. In the present study, we investigated plasma levels of ORP150 in patients with AMI (acute myocardial infarction) and its relationship with prognosis, together with a known risk marker N-BNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). Plasma from 396 consecutive patients with AMI was obtained for measurement of ORP150 and N-BNP. Mortality and cardiovascular morbidity (acute coronary syndromes/heart failure) was determined during follow-up. A specific ORP150 assay detected the 150 kDa protein in plasma extracts, including 3 and 7 kDa fragments. During follow-up (median, 455 days), 43 (10.9%) patients died. Both N-BNP and ORP150 levels were higher in those who died compared with the survivors [N-BNP, 724 (14.5-28840) compared with 6167 (154.9-33884) pmol/l (P<0.0005); ORP150, 257 (5.9-870.9) compared with 331 (93.3-831.8) pmol/l (P<0.001); values are medians (range)]. In a Cox regression model for mortality prediction, both N-BNP (odds ratio, 5.06; P<0.001) and ORP150 (odds ratio, 2.39; P<0.01) added prognostic information beyond creatinine and the use of thrombolytics. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that ORP150 added prognostic information to N-BNP, especially in those with supra-median N-BNP levels. A simplified dual-marker approach with both markers below and either above or both above their respective medians effectively stratified mortality risk (log rank statistic for trend, 32.7; P<0.00005). ORP150 levels were not predictive of other cardiovascular morbidity (acute coronary syndromes or heart failure). In conclusion, ORP150 and peptide fragments derived from it are secreted following AMI and provide independent prognostic information on mortality. High levels associated with endoplasmic reticulum/hypoxic stress predict a poor outcome

Prognostic role of molecular forms of B-type natriuretic peptide in acute heart failure

Background: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) molecular forms 5–32, 4–32, and 3–32 are known to be present in the circulation of heart failure (HF) patients. This study investigated the prognostic role of circulating BNP molecular forms on risk prediction for patients with acute HF. Methods: BNP molecular forms were measured in plasma using an immunocapture TOF–mass spectrometry (MS) method. Associations of molecular BNP forms with adverse outcome of all-cause mortality (death) and a composite of all-cause mortality and rehospitalization due to HF (death/HF) at 6 months and 1 year were investigated. Results: BNP molecular forms 5–32, 4–32, and 3–32 were detected in 838 out of 904 patient samples. BNP molecular forms were all able to independently predict death and death/HF at 6 months and 1 year. BNP 5–32 was the superior form with strongest predictive qualities for death at 6 months [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.31, P = 0.005] and 1 year (adjusted HR 1.29, P = 0.002) and death/HF at 1 year (adjusted HR 1.18, P = 0.011). BNP 5–32, 4–32, and 3–32 showed decreased survival rates across increasing tertiles of circulating concentrations (P ≤ 0.004). BNP molecular forms showed prognostic ability comparable with conventional BNP measurements across all end points (P = 0.002–0.032 vs P = 0.014–0.039, respectively) and reduced associations with renal dysfunction (blood urea; Spearman correlation rs = 0.187–0.246 vs rs = 0.369, respectively). Conclusions: BNP molecular forms, notably BNP 5–32, showed association with poor prognosis at 6 months and 1 year in patients with acute HF. This is the first study reporting the prognostic ability of molecular BNP forms in HF patients and demonstrated comparable qualities to conventional BNP measurements

Is admission blood glucose concentration a more powerful predictor of mortality after myocardial infarction than diabetes diagnosis? A retrospective cohort study.

Objective: To explore the relative association of admission blood glucose levels and antecedent diabetes on early and long-term survival in a contemporary UK population of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI). Design: Retrospective cohort study based on the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project dataset. Setting: Tertiary care centre. Participants: 4111 (20.3% known diabetes) consecutive patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction (58.3% STEMI) between October 2002 and September 2008. Primary and secondary outcome measures: All-cause mortality at 30 days and 1 year. The relative association of admission blood glucose and of antecedent diabetes with mortality was assessed using multivariate Cox regression analysis. Furthermore, we compared these relationships in patients with STEMI to those with NSTEMI. Results: By 30 days and 1 year, 409 (9.9%) and 677 (16.5%) of patients died. After adjusting for covariates, diabetes did not show independent association with mortality at any time point, in the entire cohort (HR 30 days 0.93 (95% CI 0.63 to 1.38); 1 year 1.00 (0.77 to 1.30)) or in subgroups of STEMI (HR 30 days 1.03 (0.65 to 1.64); 1 year 1.08 (0.77 to 1.51)) and NSTEMI (HR 30 days 0.62 (0.26 to 1.50); 1 year 0.87 (0.56 to 1.36)). In contrast, after adjusting for covariates, admission glucose showed robust and independent association with mortality in the entire cohort (HR: 30 days 1.07 (1.04 to 1.10); 1 year 1.05 (1.03 to 1.08)), and in the subgroup of STEMI (30 days 1.07 (1.03 to 1.10); 1 year 1.07 (1.04 to 1.10)), and NSTEMI (HR 30 days 1.07 (1.00 to 1.14); 1 year 1.02 (0.97 to 1.06)). Conclusions: Admission glucose is strongly associated with mortality in all presentations of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), irrespective of established diabetes diagnosis. The increased risk is maintained up to 1 year. Future studies are required to assess the impact of active management of elevated blood glucose in improving mortality in individuals admitted with AMI

Proteinase 3 and prognosis of patients with acute myocardial infarction.

A multimarker approach may be useful for risk stratification in AMI (acute myocardial infarction) patients, particularly utilizing pathways that are pathophysiologically distinct. Our aim was to assess the prognostic value of PR3 (proteinase 3) in patients post-AMI. We compared the prognostic value of PR3, an inflammatory marker, with an established marker NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) post-AMI. We recruited 900 consecutive post-AMI patients (700 men; age, 64.6±12.4 years) in a prospective study with follow-up over 347 (0-764) days. Plasma PR3 was significantly higher in patients who died [666.2 (226.8-4035.5) ng/ml; P<0.001] or were readmitted with heart failure [598 (231.6-1803.9) ng/ml, P<0.004] compared with event-free survivors [486.9 (29.3-3118.2) ng/ml]. Using Cox modelling, log10 PR3 [HR (hazard ratio), 3.80] and log10 NT-proBNP (HR, 2.51) were significant independent predictors of death or heart failure. When patients were stratified by plasma NT-proBNP (median, 1023 pmol/l), PR3 gave additional predictive value for death or heart failure, in both the patients in whom NT-proBNP level was above the median (log rank for trend, 12.54; P<0.0004) and those with NT-proBNP level below the median (log rank for trend, 3.83; P<0.05). Neither marker predicted recurrent AMI. In conclusion, this is the first report showing a potential role for the serine protease PR3 in determining mortality and incidence of heart failure following AMI, independent of established conventional risk factors. PR3 may represent a clinically useful marker of prognosis after an AMI as part of a multimarker strategy