Incidence, prevalence, and co-occurrence of autoimmune disorders over time and by age, sex, and socioeconomic status: a population-based cohort study of 22 million individuals in the UK

BackgroundA rise in the incidence of some autoimmune disorders has been described. However, contemporary estimates of the overall incidence of autoimmune diseases and trends over time are scarce and inconsistent. We aimed to investigate the incidence and prevalence of 19 of the most common autoimmune diseases in the UK, assess trends over time, and by sex, age, socioeconomic status, season, and region, and we examine rates of co-occurrence among autoimmune diseases.MethodsIn this UK population-based study, we used linked primary and secondary electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a cohort that is representative of the UK population in terms of age and sex and ethnicity. Eligible participants were men and women (no age restriction) with acceptable records, approved for Hospital Episodes Statistics and Office of National Statistics linkage, and registered with their general practice for at least 12 months during the study period. We calculated age and sex standardised incidence and prevalence of 19 autoimmune disorders from 2000 to 2019 and used negative binomial regression models to investigate temporal trends and variation by age, sex, socioeconomic status, season of onset, and geographical region in England. To characterise co-occurrence of autoimmune diseases, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs), comparing incidence rates of comorbid autoimmune disease among individuals with a first (index) autoimmune disease with incidence rates in the general population, using negative binomial regression models, adjusted for age and sex.FindingsAmong the 22 009 375 individuals included in the study, 978 872 had a new diagnosis of at least one autoimmune disease between Jan 1, 2000, and June 30, 2019 (mean age 54·0 years [SD 21·4]). 625 879 (63·9%) of these diagnosed individuals were female and 352 993 (36·1%) were male. Over the study period, age and sex standardised incidence rates of any autoimmune diseases increased (IRR 2017-19 vs 2000-02 1·04 [95% CI 1·00-1·09]). The largest increases were seen in coeliac disease (2·19 [2·05-2·35]), Sjogren's syndrome (2·09 [1·84-2·37]), and Graves' disease (2·07 [1·92-2·22]); pernicious anaemia (0·79 [0·72-0·86]) and Hashimoto's thyroiditis (0·81 [0·75-0·86]) significantly decreased in incidence. Together, the 19 autoimmune disorders examined affected 10·2% of the population over the study period (1 912 200 [13·1%] women and 668 264 [7·4%] men). A socioeconomic gradient was evident across several diseases, including pernicious anaemia (most vs least deprived area IRR 1·72 [1·64-1·81]), rheumatoid arthritis (1·52 [1·45-1·59]), Graves' disease (1·36 [1·30-1·43]), and systemic lupus erythematosus (1·35 [1·25-1·46]). Seasonal variations were observed for childhood-onset type 1 diabetes (more commonly diagnosed in winter) and vitiligo (more commonly diagnosed in summer), and regional variations were observed for a range of conditions. Autoimmune disorders were commonly associated with each other, particularly Sjögren's syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus, and systemic sclerosis. Individuals with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes also had significantly higher rates of Addison's disease (IRR 26·5 [95% CI 17·3-40·7]), coeliac disease (28·4 [25·2-32·0]), and thyroid disease (Hashimoto's thyroiditis 13·3 [11·8-14·9] and Graves' disease 6·7 [5·1-8·5]), and multiple sclerosis had a particularly low rate of co-occurrence with other autoimmune diseases.InterpretationAutoimmune diseases affect approximately one in ten individuals, and their burden continues to increase over time at varying rates across individual diseases. The socioeconomic, seasonal, and regional disparities observed among several autoimmune disorders in our study suggest environmental factors in disease pathogenesis. The inter-relations between autoimmune diseases are commensurate with shared pathogenetic mechanisms or predisposing factors, particularly among connective tissue diseases and among endocrine diseases.FundingResearch Foundation Flanders

Immunogenicity of third dose COVID-19 vaccine strategies in patients who are immunocompromised with suboptimal immunity following two doses (OCTAVE-DUO): an open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The humoral and T-cell responses to booster COVID-19 vaccine types in multidisease immunocompromised individuals who do not generate adequate antibody responses to two COVID-19 vaccine doses, is not fully understood. The OCTAVE DUO trial aimed to determine the value of third vaccinations in a wide range of patients with primary and secondary immunodeficiencies. METHODS: OCTAVE-DUO was a prospective, open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial investigating humoral and T-cell responses in patients who are immunocompromised following a third vaccine dose with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273, and of NVX-CoV2373 for those with lymphoid malignancies. We recruited patients who were immunocompromised from 11 UK hospitals, aged at least 18 years, with previous sub-optimal responses to two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 (1:1:1 for those with lymphoid malignancies), stratified by disease, previous vaccination type, and anti-spike antibody response following two doses. Individuals with lived experience of immune susceptibility were involved in the study design and implementation. The primary outcome was vaccine-specific immunity defined by anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies (Roche Diagnostics UK and Ireland, Burgess Hill, UK) and T-cell responses (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK) before and 21 days after the third vaccine dose analysed by a modified intention-to-treat analysis. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN 15354495, and the EU Clinical Trials Register, EudraCT 2021-003632-87, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Aug 4, 2021 and Mar 31, 2022, 804 participants across nine disease cohorts were randomly assigned to receive BNT162b2 (n=377), mRNA-1273 (n=374), or NVX-CoV2373 (n=53). 356 (45%) of 789 participants were women, 433 (55%) were men, and 659 (85%) of 775 were White. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies measured 21 days after the third vaccine dose were significantly higher than baseline pre-third dose titres in the modified intention-to-treat analysis (median 1384 arbitrary units [AU]/mL [IQR 4·3-7990·0] compared with median 11·5 AU/mL [0·4-63·1]; p<0·001). Of participants who were baseline low responders, 380 (90%) of 423 increased their antibody concentrations to more than 400 AU/mL. Conversely, 166 (54%) of 308 baseline non-responders had no response after the third dose. Detectable T-cell responses following the third vaccine dose were seen in 494 (80%) of 616 participants. There were 24 serious adverse events (BNT612b2 eight [33%] of 24, mRNA-1273 12 [50%], NVX-CoV2373 four [17%]), two (8%) of which were categorised as vaccine-related. There were seven deaths (1%) during the trial, none of which were vaccine-related. INTERPRETATION: A third vaccine dose improved the serological and T-cell response in the majority of patients who are immunocompromised. Individuals with chronic renal disease, lymphoid malignancy, on B-cell targeted therapies, or with no serological response after two vaccine doses are at higher risk of poor response to a third vaccine dose. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Blood Cancer UK