Analysis of climate change impacts on EU agriculture by 2050

The 2013 EU strategy on adaptation to climate change aims at contributing to a more climate-resilient Europe. However, there are still large gaps in understanding and characterising climate impacts in Europe and how impacts in the rest of the world could affect Europe. This report provides quantitative modelling-based results from biophysical and agro-economic models as part of the PESETA-IV (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) project. We analyse climate change projections for 2050 considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 8.5 W/m2 (with corresponding global warming levels ranging between 1.6 oC and 2.7 oC compared to pre-industrial levels), as well as for 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming conditions. Results show that climate change will pose a threat to global food production in the medium to long term, and that Europe will also be affected. Forced by the projected changes in daily temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity, and global radiation, grain maize yields in the EU will decline between 1% and 22%. In addition, wheat yields in Southern Europe are expected to decrease by up to 49%. However, in Northern Europe some of the negative productivity effects caused by climate change may be partially offset by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and changing precipitation regimes. Losses, especially in Southern Europe may be reduced by tailored adaptation strategies; e.g. changing varieties and crop types, increasing and improving irrigation practices for certain crops and when economically feasible. However, limitations on sustainable water abstraction levels could become a barrier to increase irrigation levels, specifically in the Mediterranean countries (particularly Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy and Turkey) where duration of water scarcity under global warming are projected to intensify. As large negative climate change impacts on productivity outside of the EU are estimated, large market spill-over effects will push up production in both Northern and Southern Europe through higher demand for some agricultural commodities outside of EU, resulting in higher producer prices. This, in turn, may benefit farmers' income and have positive effects on the EU’s agricultural commodity exports. However, other limiting factors (not all fully integrated into the used modelling system yet), such as increasing water shortage in Southern Europe (Task 10) and constraints on the expansion of irrigation, increasing impacts of heatwaves and droughts, consequences of reduction of nutrient use due to environmental and climate mitigation constraints, need to be further evaluated.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

MARS Bulletin Vol 18 No 1

The annexed document is the template for the bulletin that will be issued on the 9th March. This bulletin covers meteorological analysis and crop yield forecasts for the period 1st November 2009 to 28 February 2010JRC.DG.G.3-Monitoring agricultural resource

JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, December 2018

Sowing and development of winter cereals had been delayed due to dry conditions in large parts of Europe. Relatively mild conditions have slowed hardening of winter wheat in western Europe. In central, northern and eastern Europe, forecasts of colder conditions are expected to improve frost tolerance.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

JRC MARS Bulletin: Crop monitoring in Europe: February 2018

Winter conditions so far present no threat to winter cropsJRC.D.5-Food Securit

JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, November 2018

Harvesting of root and tuber crops also affected In large parts of central Europe, persistently dry soil conditions, complicated field preparations and sowing operations, and limited plant emergence and early crop development. Rapeseed areas in Germany, eastern Poland and northern Czechia are expected to be significantly reduced. Soft wheat can still be (re)sown in some countries. Favourable conditions for the sowing and emergence of winter crops prevailed in most parts of western and northern Europe.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe

The JRC PESETA IV study shows that ecosystems, people and economies in the EU will face major impacts from climate change if we do not urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climate change. The burden of climate change shows a clear north-south divide, with southern regions in Europe much more impacted, through the effects of extreme heat, water scarcity, drought, forest fires and agriculture losses. Limiting global warming to well below 2°C would considerably reduce climate change impacts in Europe. Adaptation to climate change would further minimize unavoidable impacts in a cost-effective manner, with considerable co-benefits from nature-based solutions.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services: An EU ecosystem assessment

This report presents an ecosystem assessment covering the total land area of the EU as well as the EU marine regions. The assessment is carried out by Joint Research Centre, European Environment Agency, DG Environment, and the European Topic Centres on Biological Diversity and on Urban, Land and Soil Systems. This report constitutes a knowledge base which can support the evaluation of the 2020 biodiversity targets. It also provides a data foundation for future assessments and policy developments, in particular with respect to the ecosystem restoration agenda for the next decade (2020-2030). The report presents an analysis of the pressures and condition of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems using a single, comparable methodology based on European data on trends of pressures and condition relative to the policy baseline 2010. The following main conclusions are drawn: - Pressures on ecosystems exhibit different trends. - Land take, atmospheric emissions of air pollutants and critical loads of nitrogen are decreasing but the absolute values of all these pressures remain too high. - Impacts from climate change on ecosystems are increasing. - Invasive alien species of union concern are observed in all ecosystems, but their impact is particularly high in urban ecosystems and grasslands. - Pressures from overfishing activities and marine pollution are still high. - In the long term, air and freshwater quality is improving. - In forests and agroecosystems, which represent over 80% of the EU territory, there are improvements in structural condition indicators (biomass, deadwood, area under organic farming) relative to the baseline year 2010 but some key bio-indicators such as tree-crown defoliation continue to increase. This indicates that ecosystem condition is not improving. - Species-related indicators show no progress or further declines, particularly in agroecosystems. The analysis of trends in ecosystem services concluded that the current potential of ecosystems to deliver timber, protection against floods, crop pollination, and nature-based recreation is equal to or lower than the baseline value for 2010. At the same time, the demand for these services has significantly increased. A lowered potential in combination with a higher demand risks to further decrease the condition of ecosystems and their contribution to human well-being. Despite the wide coverage of environmental legislation in the EU, there are still large gaps in the legal protection of ecosystems. On land, 76% of the area of terrestrial ecosystems, mainly forests, agroecosystems and urban ecosystems, are excluded from a legal designation under the Bird and Habitat Directives. Freshwater and marine ecosystems are subject to specific protection measures under the Water Framework and Marine Strategy Framework Directives. The condition of ecosystems that are under legal designation is unfavourable. More efforts are needed to bend the curve of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation and to put ecosystems on a path to recovery. The progress that is made in certain areas such as pollution reduction, increasing air and water quality, increasing share of organic farming, the expansion of forests, and the efforts to maintain marine fish stocks at sustainable levels show that a persistent implementation of policies can be effective. These successes should encourage us to act now and to put forward an ambitious plan for the restoration of Europe’s ecosystems.JRC.D.3-Land Resource

New biological model to manage the impact of climate warming on maize corn borers

Climate change has the potential to modify the distribution and development of agricultural insect pests. The assessment of the potential effects remains relatively unexplored. Furthermore, they are often made using models based on linear relationships between temperature and development, which is not an adequate simplification of the real systems when used for future scenarios studies. In this study we estimated the potential winter survival, distribution, and phenological development of the maize borer Sesamia nonagrioides Lef. under current and future climate over Europe. Actual distribution was estimated using different sources of information. An original model based on the concept of lethal dose exposure was developed to simulate winter survival. Two approaches for the simulation of the winter survival were applied and compared: the first one using air temperature only as weather input, the second one taking into account the fraction of larvae overwintering in the soil, therefore considering also soil temperature. The survival model was linked to a phenological model to simulate the potential development. We showed that soil temperature is an essential input for correctly simulating S. nonagrioides distribution. The approach using only air temperature allowed identifying areas where the main agronomic practice suggested for controlling S. nonagrioides (uprooting and exposing the stubble on the soils surface for exposing larvae to winter cold) should be considered ineffective. The projections suggested an overall slight increase of more suitable conditions for the S. nonagrioides in almost all the areas where it develops under the baseline. The potential geographical spread of the insect is expected to increase toward Eastern Europe. The phenological model suggested that in these areas S. nonagrioides could become a new insect pest with a potential strong impact on maize productions. This study represents the first attempt to provide extensive estimates on the potential effects of climate change on S. nonagrioides, providing information on possible future changes on the management of this pest in the coming years.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook 2019: Crop monitoring European neighbourhood: Ukraine: June 2019

Winter cereal and spring barley yield forecasts are close to a record high; however, conditions observed towards the end of the cropping season were less beneficial, with warm temperatures during grain filling and a rain surplus foremost in western oblasts.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook 2019: Crop monitoring European neighbourhood: Ukraine: September 2019

The favourable cropping season for winter and spring cereals concluded with very high yields. Summer crop yields are also expected to be high and close to records. Grain maize yield has been impacted by late sowing and dry conditions in central Ukraine; nevertheless, yield forecasts are largely above average.JRC.D.5-Food Securit