Sowing and development of winter cereals had been delayed due to dry conditions in large parts of Europe. Relatively mild conditions have slowed hardening of winter wheat in western Europe. In central, northern and eastern Europe, forecasts of colder conditions are expected to improve frost tolerance.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

BIAVETTI IRENE

BUSSAY ATTILA

CEGLAR ANDREJ

CERRANI IACOPO

FUMAGALLI DAVIDE

GARCIA CONDADO SARA

PANARELLO LORENZO

SEGUINI LORENZO

TORETI ANDREA

VAN DEN BERG MAURITS

VAN DER VELDE MARIJN

ZUCCHINI ANTONIO

JRC Publications Repository

Joint  
Research  
Centre
Period covered: 1 November 2018 - 10 December 2018
Issued: 17 December 2018
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 26 No 12
Hardening is the bio-physiological process whereby winter 
cereals gain low-temperature tolerance to withstand freezing 
conditions that occur during the winter dormancy period.
Currently, winter cereals are underdeveloped in large areas 
of Europe owing to delayed sowing and below-optimal soil 
moisture conditions for sprouting. Thermal conditions have 
been much milder than usual; therefore, the hardening of 
winter wheat has started late and it seems to be weaker 
than usual, albeit more advanced than in 2017 around this 
time of the year, especially in eastern parts of Europe. The 
current situation is delicate, because underdeveloped crops 
with reduced frost tolerance are more susceptible to cold 
air intrusion, which could cause considerable frost damage 
in areas without snow cover deep enough to provide thermal 
insulation.
JRC MARS Bulletin
Crop monitoring in Europe
December 2018
Mild start of winter
Colder conditions forecast expected to improve frost tolerance 
1
 
Agro-meteorological 
overview
2
 
Atlas maps
2 JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 26 No 12 — 17 December 2018
Our model simulations indicate no or weak frost tolerance in 
the western half of Europe, the Mediterranean region, southern 
parts of the Balkan Peninsula and western Turkey. In eastern 
and northern parts of the EU, hardening has started and 
winter crops have reached a slight or partial hardening stage 
in the Baltic countries, eastern Poland, northern Bulgaria and 
eastern Romania as well as in some parts of Finland, Sweden, 
the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
In south-western Belarus, and southern and western Ukraine, 
winter wheat is typically just partially hardened, although the 
central and north-eastern regions of both countries present 
more advanced frost tolerance. Along the western border 
of Russia, winter wheat has reached advanced hardening 
and is locally almost fully hardened. Further eastward (such 
as in the northern parts of the Southern okrug, most of the 
Central okrug, and southern and south-western regions of 
the Volga okrug), winter wheat is expected to be partially 
hardened and locally advanced. Areas with a maximum 
level of frost tolerance are confined to the very northern and 
very eastern winter wheat cultivation regions of European 
Russia.
In the first days of December, some minor/local frost-kill 
events may have occurred in central Romania, eastern 
Slovakia, north-eastern Hungary and eastern Poland due to the 
absence of adequate crop frost tolerance and low minimum 
temperatures (ranging between – 16 °C and – 13 °C). Local 
frost-kill events have also been simulated in some parts of 
Sweden and Finland.
In Russia, our frost-kill model suggests slight frost-kill damage 
of winter wheat in the Central okrug and in northern parts of 
the Southern okrug (e.g. Volgogradskaya oblast). Moderate, 
and locally considerable, frost-kill damage is probable in 
the Volga okrug (especially in the western and southern 
territories) as a consequence of severe cooling and absence 
of snow during the second dekad of November.
Taking into consideration the latest medium-range weather 
forecast, winter hardening is likely to increase in central, 
northern and eastern Europe as a consequence of colder-
than-usual conditions. On the basis of the temperature drops 
forecast, no frost kill is expected until the end of the forecast 
period (20 December).
3JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 26 No 12 — 17 December 2018
1. Agro-meteorological overview
1.1. Meteorological review (1 November-10 December)
The period under analysis was significantly warmer than 
usual in Scandinavia and most of western and central Europe. 
Temperature anomalies in northern Scandinavia reached 
between 4 °C and 6 °C above the long-term average, while in 
eastern France, Italy, Austria, and along the eastern Adriatic 
coast, temperature anomalies between 2 °C and 4 °C above 
the long-term average prevailed.
Whereas the first half of November was warmer than usual in 
most of Europe, temperatures dropped in the second half of the 
month. This drop in temperatures was most significant in the 
western Black Sea region, eastern Ukraine and eastern parts of 
European Russia. In these regions, the period under review as 
a whole was colder than usual with recorded temperatures 
between 1 °C and 4 °C below the long-term average. Minimum 
temperatures reached below – 5 °C in eastern Europe; 
minimum temperatures below – 15 °C were confined to 
northern Romania, western Ukraine, part of Scandinavia and 
central and northern parts of European Russia.
Drier-than-usual weather prevailed in eastern and north-
eastern Europe, with precipitation cumulates as low as 80 % 
below the long-term average. Cumulative precipitation did 
not exceed 30 mm in southern Poland, northern and eastern 
parts of the Czech Republic, and parts of eastern Germany; 
precipitation deficit in these regions has persisted since the 
beginning of spring. Drier-than-usual conditions during the 
period under review have also been recorded in Romania, 
northern Ukraine, the central Balkan region and the central 
part of European Russia.
Wetter-than-usual conditions appeared in the western 
Mediterranean region, Portugal, northern France, the British 
Isles and southern Scandinavia and also regionally in Turkey. 
Abundant rainfall with cumulates greater than 200 mm was 
recorded on the Adriatic coast of the Balkan Peninsula, on 
the south-western coast of the Apennine Peninsula, regionally 
in southern and western (coastal) France, and in the north-
western part of the Iberian Peninsula, Ireland, the western 
coastal part of the UK and southern Norway.
Whereas the first half of November was largely snow free 
in Europe, a snow layer appeared in the second half of the 
month and deepened during the first dekad of December in 
large parts of eastern and northern Europe, and in the Alpine 
region.
4 JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 26 No 12 — 17 December 2018
5JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 26 No 12 — 17 December 2018
2. Atlas maps
Temperature regime
6 JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 26 No 12 — 17 December 2018
Precipitation
7JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 26 No 12 — 17 December 2018
Climatic water balance
Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the 
European Commission, the Joint Research Centre’s mission is to 
support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the 
whole policy cycle.
ISSN  Print 2443-826X
ISSN  PDF 2443-8278
The current JRC MARS Bulletin  — Crop monitoring in Europe 
is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST 
(JRC Unit D5 — Directorate for Sustainable Resources) 
JRC MARS Bulletins are available at:
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/Bulletins  
http://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Analysis and reports
A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, D. Fumagalli, S. Garcia 
Condado, L. Panarello, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den 
Berg, A. Zucchini
Reporting support
Prepress projects, I. Biavetti
Editors
M. van den Berg, M. van der Velde
Data production
MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), Wagenigen Environmental  
Research (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE) and CMCC (IT)
Contact
JRC D5/MARS4CAST
JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu
*MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources
Legal notice:
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of 
the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of 
this publication.
Disclaimer:
The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and 
are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily 
reflect the official Commission position.
Technical note:
The long-term average (LTA) used within this bulletin as a reference is 
based on an archive of data covering 1975–2017. 
JRC MARS Bulletins 2018
Date Publication Reference
22 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 26 No 1
19 Feb Agromet analysis, durum 
wheat update and yield 
forecast
Vol. 26 No 2
19 Mar Agromet analysis, yield 
forecast, pasture analysis
Vol. 26 No 3
16 Apr Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, 
sowing conditions, pasture 
analysis
Vol. 26 No 4
22 May Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, sow-
ing update, pasture analysis
Vol. 26 No 5
18 Jun Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, pas-
ture update, rice analysis 
Vol. 26 No 6
23 Jul Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, har-
vesting conditions, pasture 
update
Vol. 26 No 7
27 Aug Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, 
pasture update, harvesting 
update
Vol. 26 No 8
17 Sep Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, 
harvesting update 
Vol. 26 No 9
22 Oct Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, rice 
analysis, harvesting update, 
sowing conditions
Vol. 26 No 10
26 Nov Agromet analysis and yield 
forecast, harvesting update, 
sowing updates
Vol. 26 No 11
17 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 26 No 12
Printed by the Publications Office in Luxembourg
KJ-AW
-18-012-EN
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JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, December 2018

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JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, December 2018

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