Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. METHODS: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1-38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78-0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91-1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95-1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58-35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49-42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05-0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76-2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. INTERPRETATION: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively. Funding The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38)

HIV antibody seroprevalence and associated risk factors in sex workers, drug users, and prisoners in Sindh, Pakistan

OBJECTIVE: To determine prevalence of HIV infection and risk behaviors in commercial sex workers (CSWs), drug users, and prisoners in Sindh, Pakistan. METHODS: A medical clinic was established in a red-light district of Karachi. Eighty-one CSWs who registered at the clinic between November 1993 and June 1994 were provided HIV counseling and testing and administered a risk factor questionnaire. Next, 316 male drug users were tested for HIV-1 antibody from April to July 1994. Finally, a voluntary serosurvey of HIV-1 and HIV-2 and risk behaviors of 3525 prisoners in Sindh was conducted between July 1994 and December 1994. Abbott Recombinant HIV third-generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and confirmatory testing with Western blot analysis were used in all three groups. RESULTS: None of 81 CSWs tested for HIV-1 antibody were positive. None of 316 drug users tested positive for HIV-1 antibody. Of 3441 male prisoners, 1 was HIV-1 infected, and of 84 female prisoners, 1 was HIV-1 infected. No prisoner was positive for HIV-2 antibody. DISCUSSION: The prevalence of HIV in CSWs, drug users, and prisoners in Sindh is low at present. Intervention programs implemented at this stage can make an impact in HIV prevention. PIP: A three-stage study conducted in Pakistan\u27s Sindh province in 1993-94 investigated HIV seroprevalence in commercial sex workers, drug users, and prisoners. First, the 81 sex workers who registered at a medical clinic established in a red light district in Karachi in a 7-month period were provided HIV counseling and testing and administered a risk factor questionnaire. Second, 316 male drug users who presented to a charitable drug rehabilitation center over a 3-month period (n = 202) or were arrested in a drug raid and sent to the center (n = 114) were tested. The third stage entailed voluntary HIV-1 and -2 testing and a risk factor questionnaire for 3525 prisoners. Recombinant HIV third-generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with confirmatory testing by Western blot were used in all three groups. There were no cases of HIV-1 infection among either sex workers or drug users. HIV-1 antibody was present in 1 of the 3441 male prisoners and 1 of the 84 female prisoners. The infected male prisoner reported multiple encounters with sex workers in Bombay in 1990; the only identifiable risk factor in the HIV-positive female prisoner was several injections at the prison dispensary with reused syringes. No prisoner was positive for HIV-2 antibody. 65% of the sex workers used no contraception and condom use was negligible. 52% of injecting drug users shared needles. 22% of the male prisoners reported sexual relations with men prior to incarceration. Of concern was the finding that 26% of drug users and 23% of prisoners were paid blood donors. The low prevalence of HIV in high-risk groups in Pakistan, despite an alarming incidence of high-risk behaviors, provides a window of opportunity for implementation of AIDS prevention programs

Ten concerns about blood pressure measurement and targets in paediatric sepsis

Current paediatric sepsis guidelines suggest that resuscitation is titrated against clinical markers of hypovolaemia and end organ perfusion [1], including blood pressure (BP), heart rate and capillary refill time (CRT). BP is used both as a defining feature of shock and as a target for therapy. This paper will focus on the measurement of BP, the definition of hypotension and on the target BP for therapy in children with sepsis